UPDATED – 8:30 AM CT, 11/12/10:

Here is an update on the six House races that remain uncalled from the Midterm Elections. The GOP currently has a +61 net gain in seats, with the potential for it to wind up at +64, since they lead in three of the remaining six races:

NY-1

The GOP’s Randy Altschuler has a 383-vote lead over incumbent Democrat Rep. Tim Bishop. Bishop’s camp reportedly pushing for a recount.

NY-25

Republican Ann Marie Buerkle holds a 687-vote lead over incumbent Democrat Rep. Dan Maffei. Reports indicate there are about 8,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted next week.

IL-8

Republican Joe Walsh leads incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean by 347-votes. Most votes have apparently been counted. Bean still refusing to concede.

KY-6

Incumbent Democrat Rep. Ben Chandler leads Republican Andy Barr by 649 votes. Chandler has declared victory.

CA-11

Democrat Rep. Jerry McNerney leads Republican David Harmer. Some votes still uncounted. But McNerney looks like the eventual winner. Harmer refusing to concede.

CA-20

Democrat Rep. Jim Costa leads Republican Andy Vidak by 1200 votes with a few thousand votes still outstanding.

Via Politico

UPDATED – 9:45 PM CT, 11/5/10: As of tonight, there are still seven House Races that have not yet been called. Republicans are still at a +61 net gain for the 2010 Midterm Elections, but could move up to as high as +64 when all the races are called. Some still list TX-27 as uncalled, which would leave Republicans currently at +60. But others have called the race for the Republican challenger, and we have gone with that and the +61 figure. Arizona CD-8 has been called for Democrat Gabrielle Giffords, taking it off the board. Also, while it has been called for Renee Ellmers, NC-2 may have to go through a recount, because Democrat incumbent Rep. Bob Etheridge – of “Who are you?” fame – is talking recount.

Here are the seven races remaining:

(Democrats Leading) = WA-2, CA-11, VA-11, KY-6

(Republicans Leading) = CA-20, IL-8, NY-25

Next week, I’ll do a more detailed post on how our projections turned out. Our final projection was +70, and we may wind up being six off if the GOP gets to +64 when it is all said and done. We correctly projected the huge wave, but overshot it by a few. Still, we wound up closer than some of the big name pundits, who had it around 54-55!

UPDATED – 5:15 PM CT, 11/3/10: We removed GA-2 from the list of takeover seats. It had been called for the GOP by networks last night, but it turned out to be a Democrat Hold. However, NH-2 took it’s place, so the GOP’s net gain remains +61. Some have called TX-27 for the GOP and some have not. We have listed it as a GOP takeover. Below, we added a list of the current seats still outstanding, and the three that the GOP is leading in. It’s looking like we’ll wind up with a +64 GOP gain.

UPDATED – 1:00 PM CT, 11/3/10: Texas CD-27 has gone to the Republican, giving the GOP another pickup. That brings the total now to +61.

UPDATED -10:20 AM CT, 11/3/10: GOP net gain holding at +60. There are still several seats not yet called: AZ-7, AZ-8, CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, MI-9, NY25, TX-27, VA-11, and WA-2. The GOP is leading in three of those: CA-11, CA-20, TX-27. That could inch the total up.

7:00 AM, 11/3/10: Currently, Republicans have a net gain of 60-seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, with several races still outstanding.

Updated List of U.S. House Republican Pickups (Net Gain of 39 Needed to Take Control of House): +61

AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24, GA-8, ID-1, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-8, IN-9, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MN-8, MO-4, MS-1, MS-4, NC-2, ND-1, NH-1, NH-2, NJ-3, NM-2, NV-3, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-6, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, SD-1, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, TX-27, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8, WV-1, (DE-1, LA-2, HI-1 Pickups by Democrats)

Seats Not Yet Called: AZ-7, AZ-8, CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, VA-11, WA-2, WA-9. GOP Leading in: CA-20, IL-8, WA-2

_______________________

Updated 11/1/10 10:00 PM CT

Here is our table of “2010 Competitive House of Representative Races” with Projections. This is our final projection. The table now has no “tossups.” We are currently projecting a 70-seat net gain for Republicans, and that number could have been higher. There are many races we rated as “Dem Hold” simply because there was not enough evidence to move it to the GOP column.

Currently, the Democrats have a 77 seat margin, meaning the GOP will have to see a net gain of 39 seats in the 2010 Midterm election to regain control of the House.

Check our latest U.S. Senate Polls & Projections page.

2010 Competitive U.S. House Races – Projections *FINAL PROJECTION – Updated: 11/1/10 – 10:00 PM CT*
Current	179	256	GOP
Projected	249	186	+70
District	Republican	Democrat	Projection
AK – AL	*Don Young	Harry Crawford Jr.	GOP Hold
AL – 2	Martha Roby	*Bobby Bright	GOP Gain
AL – 5 (incumbent Griffith defeated in primary)	*Mo Brooks	Steve Raby	GOP Hold
AZ – 1	Paul Gosar	*Ann Kirkpatrick	GOP Gain
AZ – 3 (Open)	*Ben Quayle	Jon Hulburd	GOP Hold
AZ – 5	Dave Schweikert	*Harry Mitchell	GOP Gain
AZ – 7	Ruth McClung	*Raul Grijalva	Dem Hold
AZ – 8	Jesse Kelly	*Gabrielle Giffords	Dem Hold
AR – 1 (Open)	Rick Crawford	*Chad Causey	GOP Gain
AR – 2 (Open)	Tim Griffin	*Joyce Elliot	GOP Gain
AR – 4	Beth Anne Rankin	*Mike Ross	Dem Hold
CA – 3	*Dan Lungren	Amerish Bera	GOP Hold
CA – 11	David Harmer	*Jerry McNerney	GOP Gain
CA – 18	Mike Berryhill	*Dennis Cardoza	Dem Hold
CA – 20	Andy Vidak	*Jim Costa	GOP Gain
CA – 44	*Ken Calvert	Bill Hedrick	GOP Hold
CA – 45	*Mary Bono Mack	Steve Pougnet	GOP Hold
CA – 47	Van Tran	*Loretta Sanchez	Dem Hold
CA – 50	*Brian Bilbray	Francine Busby	GOP Hold
CA – 51	“Gunny” Nick Popaditch	*Bob Filner	Dem Hold
CO – 3	Scott Tipton	*John Salazar	GOP Gain
CO – 4	Cory Gardner	*Betsy Markey	GOP Gain
CO – 7	Ryan Frazier	*Ed Perlmutter	Dem Hold
CT – 1	Ann Brickley	*John Larson	Dem Hold
CT – 2	Janet Peckinpaugh	*Joe Courtney	Dem Hold
CT – 4	Dan Debicella	*Jim Himes	GOP Gain
CT – 5	Sam Caligiuri	*Chris Murphy	GOP Gain
DE – AL (Open)	*Glen Urquhart	John Carney Jr.	Dem Gain
FL – 2	Steve Southerland	*Allen Boyd	GOP Gain
FL – 8	Dan Webster	*Alan Grayson	GOP Gain
FL – 12 (Open)	*Dennis Ross	Lori Edwards	GOP Hold
FL – 13	*Vern Buchanan	James Golden	GOP Hold
FL – 16	*Tom Rooney	Jim Horn	GOP Hold
FL – 22	Allen West	*Ron Klein	GOP Gain
FL – 24	Sandy Adams	*Susan Kosmas	GOP Gain
FL – 25 (Open)	*David Rivera	Joe Garcia	GOP Hold
GA – 2	Mike Keown	*Sanford Bishop	GOP Gain
GA – 8	Austin Scott	*Jim Marshall	GOP Gain
GA – 12	Raymond McKinney	*John Barrow	GOP Gain
HI – 1	*Charles Djou	Colleen Hanabusa	Dem Gain
ID – 1	Raul Labrador	*Walter Minnick	Dem Hold
IL – 8	Joe Walsh	*Melissa Bean	Dem Hold
IL – 10 (Open)	*Robert Dold	Daniel Seals	GOP Hold
IL – 11	Adam Kinzinger	*Debbie Halvorson	GOP Gain
IL – 14	Randy Hultgren	*Bill Foster	GOP Gain
IL – 17	Bobby Schilling	*Phil Hare	GOP Gain
IN – 2	Jackie Walorski	*Joe Donnelly	Dem Hold
IN – 8 (Open – Ellsworth seat)	Dr. Larry Bucshon	*Trent Van Haaften	GOP Gain
IN – 9	Todd Young	*Baron Hill	GOP Gain
IA – 1	Ben Lange	*Bruce Braley	Dem Hold
IA – 2	M. Miller-Meeks	*David Loebsack	Dem Hold
IA – 3	Brad Zaun	*Leonard Boswell	Dem Hold
KS – 3 (Open)	Kevin Yoder	*Stephene Moore	GOP Gain
KS – 4 (Open)	*Mike Pompeo	Raj Goyle	GOP Hold
KY – 3	Todd Lally	*John Yarmuth	Dem Hold
KY – 6	Andy Barr	*Ben Chandler	GOP Gain
LA – 2	*Joseph Cao	Cedric Richmond	Dem Gain
LA – 3 (Open)	Jeff Landry	*Ravi Sangisetty	GOP Gain
ME – 1	Dean Scontras	*Chellie Pingree	GOP Gain
ME – 2	Jason Levesque	*Mike Michaud	Dem Hold
MD – 1	Andy Harris	*Frank Kratovil, Jr.	GOP Gain
MA – 4	Sean Bielat	*Barney Frank	Dem Hold
MA – 5	Jon Golnik	*Niki Tsongas	Dem Hold
MA – 6	Bill Hudak	*John Tierney	Dem Hold
MA – 10 (Open – Delahunt retiring)	Jeff Perry	*William Keating	GOP Gain
MI – 1 (Open, Stupak Retiring)	Dr. Daniel Benishek	*Gary McDowell	GOP Gain
MI – 5	John Kupiec	*Dale Kildee	Dem Hold
MI – 7	Tim Walberg	*Mark Shauer	GOP Gain
MI – 9	Andrew Raczkowski	*Gary Peters	GOP Gain
MI – 15	Rob Steele	*John Dingell	Dem Hold
MN – 1	Randy Demmer	*Tim Walz	Dem Hold
MN – 6	*Michele Bachmann	Tarryl Clark	GOP Hold
MN – 8	Chip Cravaack	*Jim Oberstar	GOP Gain
MS – 1	Alan Nunnelee	*Travis Childers	GOP Gain
MS – 4	Steven Palazzo	*Gene Taylor	GOP Gain
MO – 3	Ed Martin	*Russ Carnahan	Dem Hold
MO – 4	Vicky Hartzler	*Ike Skelton	GOP Gain
MO – 5	Jacob Turk	*Emanuel Cleaver	Dem Hold
ND – AL	Rick Berg	*Earl Pomeroy	GOP Gain
NE – 2	*Lee Terry	Tom White	GOP Hold
NV – 3	Dr. Joseph Heck	*Dina Titus	GOP Gain
NH – 1	Frank Guinta	*Carol Shea-Porter	GOP Gain
NH – 2 (Open)	Charles Bass	*Ann Kuster	Dem Hold
NJ – 3	John Runyan	*John Adler	GOP Gain
NJ – 6	Anna Little	*Frank Pallone	Dem Hold
NJ – 12	Scott Sipprelle	*Rush Holt	Dem Hold
NM – 1	Jon Barela	*Martin Heinrich	GOP Gain
NM – 2	Steve Pearce	*Harry Teague	GOP Gain
NM – 3	Tom Mullins	*Ben Ray Lujan	Dem Hold
NY – 1	Randy Altschuler	*Tim Bishop	Dem Hold
NY – 4	Fran Becker	*Carolyn McCarthy	Dem Hold
NY – 13	Mike Grimm	*Mike McMahon	Dem Hold
NY – 19	Nan Hayworth	*John Hall	GOP Gain
NY – 20	Chris Gibson	*Scott Murphy	GOP Gain
NY – 22	George Phillips	*Maurice Hinchey	Dem Hold
NY – 23	Matthew Doheny (Doug Hoffman on ballot as Conservative Party nominee, but campaign suspended; calls on supporters to vote for Doheny)	*Bill Owens	GOP Gain
NY – 24	Richard Hanna	*Michael Arcuri	Dem Hold
NY – 25	Ann Marie Buerkle	*Dan Maffei	Dem Hold
NY – 27	Leonard Roberto	*Brian Higgins	Dem Hold
NY – 29 (Open – Eric Massa resigned)	Thomas Reed	*Matthew Zeller	GOP Gain
NC – 2	Renee Elmers	*Bob Etheridge	GOP Gain
NC – 4	Dr. William (B.J.) Lawson	*David Price	Dem Hold
NC – 7	Ilario Pantano	*Mike McIntyre	Dem Hold
NC – 8	Harold Johnson	*Larry Kissell	GOP Gain
NC – 11	Jeff Miller	*Heath Shuler	Dem Hold
OH – 1	Steve Chabot	*Steve Driehaus	GOP Gain
OH – 2	*Jean Schmidt	Surya Yalamanchili	GOP Hold
OH – 6	Bill Johnson	*Charlie Wilson	GOP Gain
OH – 12	*Patrick Tiberi	Paula Brooks	GOP Hold
OH – 13	Thomas Ganley	*Betty Sue Sutton	Dem Hold
OH – 15	Steve Stivers	*Mary Jo Kilroy	GOP Gain
OH – 16	Jim Renacci	*John Boccieri	GOP Gain
OH – 18	Bob Gibbs	*Zack Space	Dem Hold
OK – 2	Charles Thompson	*Dan Boren	Dem Hold
OR – 1	Rob Cornilles	*David Wu	Dem Hold
OR – 4	Art Robinson	*Pete DeFazio	Dem Hold
OR – 5	Scott Bruun	*Kurt Schrader	GOP Gain
PA – 3	Mike Kelly	*Kathy Dahlkemper	GOP Gain
PA – 4	Keith Rothfus	*Jason Altmire	Dem Hold
PA – 6	*Jim Gerlach	Manan Trivedi	GOP Hold
PA – 7 (Open – Sestak Senate)	Patrick Meehan	*Bryan Lentz	GOP Gain
PA – 8	Mike Fitzpatrick	*Patrick Murphy	GOP Gain
PA – 10	Tom Marino	*Chris Carney	GOP Gain
PA – 11	Lou Barletta	*Paul Kanjorski	GOP Gain
PA – 12 (Special – Murtha Death)	Tim Burns	*Mark Critz	Dem Hold
PA – 15	*Charlie Dent	John Callahan	GOP Hold
PA – 17	David Argall	*Tim Holden	Dem Hold
RI – 1 (Patrick Kennedy retiring)	John Loughlin, II	*David Cicilline	GOP Gain
SC – 1 (Open)	*Tim Scott	Ben Frasier	GOP Hold
SC – 5	Mick Mulvaney	*John Spratt	GOP Gain
SD – AL	Kristi Noem	*S. Herseth-Sandlin	GOP Gain
TN – 4	Dr. Scott DesJarlais	*Lincoln Davis	GOP Gain
TN – 5	David Hall	*Jim Cooper	Dem Hold
TN – 6 (Open)	Diane Black	*Brett Carter	GOP Gain
TN – 8 (Open)	Stephen Fincher	*Roy Herron	GOP Gain
TX – 17	Bill Flores	*Chet Edwards	GOP Gain
TX – 23	Francisco “Quico” Canseco	*Ciro Rodriguez	GOP Gain
TX – 27	Blake Farenthold	*Solomon Ortiz	Dem Hold
VA – 2	Scott Rigell	*Glenn Nye	GOP Gain
VA – 5	Robert Hurt	*Tom Perriello	GOP Gain
VA – 9	Morgan Griffith	*Rick Boucher	GOP Gain
VA – 11	Keith Fimian	*Gerald Connolly	Dem Hold
WA – 2	John Koster	*Rick Larsen	Dem Hold
WA – 3 (Open)	Jaime Herrera	*Denny Heck	GOP Gain
WA – 6	Doug Cloud	*Norm Dicks	Dem Hold
WA – 8	*Dave Reichert	Suzan DelBene	GOP Hold
WA – 9	Dick Muri	*Adam Smith	Dem Hold
WV – 1 (Dem inc. district – Inc. Mollohan defeted)	David McKinley	*Michael Olivario, II	GOP Gain
WV – 3	Elliot Maynard	*Nick Joe Rahall, II	Dem Hold
WI – 3	Dan Kapanke	*Ronald Kind	Dem Hold
WI – 7 (OPEN – David Obey Retiring)	Sean Duffy	*Julie Lassa	GOP Gain
WI – 8	Reid Ribble	*Steve Kagen	GOP Gain
TOTALS
152 Competitive House Races	24 GOP Seats	128 Dem Seats	GOP Gain – 73 Dem Gain – 03 Net GOP Gain +70

2010 U.S. House Projections

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