2010 U.S. Senate Polls & Projections
2:30 PM CT, 11/7/10 – The final net gain for Republicans in the 2010 U.S. Senate Elections is +6. The only outstanding race is in Alaska, where GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski is likely going to prevail of GOP Nominee Joe Miller. Murkowski mounted a “write-in” campaign, and it appears she has an insurmountable lead. It won’t be known for sure until all the write-in ballots are counted and certified. At this time, “write-in” has a 13,000 vote lead over Joe Miller. It is expected that the vast majority of those “write-in” votes are for Murkowski.
9:00 AM, 11/3/10 - Currently, the GOP has a net gain of 6-seats in the U.S. Senate from yesterday’s Midterm Elections. Republican pickups: Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Washington and Colorado remain uncalled, but the Democrats have razor-thin margins in both. Alaska has not yet been called either, but it will be either Murkowski or Miller the winner there – both Republicans.
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Here is the final “2010 U.S. Senate Races – Polls and Projections” Table. Our final projection is that the GOP will wind up with a net gain of 9 Senate Seats on November 2 in the 2010 Midterm Elections.
As of September 4, we no longer rate any races as a “Tossup.” Instead, we make a projection based on polling and our best estimate if the race is a statistical tie.
Check our final U.S. House Projections.
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2010 Mid-Term U.S. Senate Races – Polls and Projections The last 40 days of polls are included to give an idea of how the race is trending, with averages shown for competitive races where nominees have been determined. Projections for each state are based on a combination of the 40-day average of poll data, recent trending, and the all important “gut feeling.”
Polls released since 9/22 included in the 40-Day Average, since 10/18 in the 2-Week Average (only given for close races).
FINAL PROJECTION – 11/1/10, 11:15 PM CT
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Projected Net GOP Gain of 9 Seats (No Tossups) |
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CURRENT SENATE = Dems 57, GOP 41, Independents 2 |
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PROJECTED SENATE = Dems 48, GOP 50, Independents 2 |
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Alabama |
*(R) Richard Shelby vs. (D) William Barnes |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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9/21 Rasmussen |
Shelby 58 |
Barnes 30 |
+28 |
GOP Hold |
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Alaska |
*(R) Joe Miller vs. (D) Scott McAdams vs. (R) Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Write-in Candidacy) |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Miller 34.4 |
(D) McAdams 24.2 (R – Write in) Murkowski 35.4 |
+1.0 |
GOP Hold (Murkowski) |
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2-Week AVERAGE |
Miller 32.0 |
McAdams 23.0 Murkowski 37.0 |
+5 |
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10/23-28 Dittman Research |
Miller 27 |
McAdams 23 Murkowski 37 |
+10 |
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10/15-19 CNN/Time |
Miller 37 |
McAdams 23 Murkowski 37 |
Tie |
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10/13 Rasmussen |
Miller 35 |
McAdams 27 Murkowski 34 |
+1 |
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10/9-10 Daily Kos/PPP |
Miller 35 |
McAdams 26 Murkowski 33 |
+2 |
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9/24-28 CNN/Time |
Miller 38 |
McAdams 22 Murkowski 36 |
+2 |
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Arizona |
*(R) John McCain vs. (D) Rodney Glassman |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
McCain 54.5 |
Glassman 31.3 |
+23.2 |
GOP Hold |
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10/28 Rasmussen |
McCain 52 |
Glassman 32 |
+20 |
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10/23-24 Daily Kos/PPP |
McCain 56 |
Glassman 38 |
+18 |
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10/1-10 Behavior Research Center |
McCain 56 |
Glassman 22 |
+34 |
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10/3 Rasmussen |
McCain 54 |
Glassman 33 |
+21 |
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Arkansas |
*(D) Blanche Lincoln vs. (R) John Boozman |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Boozman 54.8 |
Lincoln 36.6 |
+18.2 |
GOP Pickup |
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10/28 Rasmussen |
Boozman 55 |
Lincoln 36 |
+19 |
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10/8-20 The Arkansas Poll |
Boozman 54 |
Lincoln 35 |
+19 |
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10/15-19 Mason-Dixon |
Boozman 55 |
Lincoln 34 |
+21 |
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10/15-19 CNN/Time |
Boozman 55 |
Lincoln 41 |
+14 |
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9/30 Rasmussen |
Boozman 55 |
Lincoln 37 |
+18 |
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California |
*(D) Barbara Boxer vs. (R) Carly Fiorina |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Fiorina 43.1 |
Boxer 47.8 |
+4.7 |
Dem Hold |
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2-Week AVERAGE |
Fiorina 43.2 |
Boxer 48.9 |
+5.7 |
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10/29-31 PPP |
Fiorina 46 |
Boxer 50 |
+4 |
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10/26-31 Survey USA |
Fiorina 38 |
Boxer 46 |
+8 |
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10/27 Rasmussen |
Fiorina 46 |
Boxer 49 |
+3 |
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10/14-26 Field |
Fiorina 41 |
Boxer 49 |
+8 |
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10/20-26 CNN/Time |
Fiorina 45 |
Boxer 50 |
+5 |
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10/21-25 Survey USA |
Fiorina 40 |
Boxer 45 |
+5 |
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10/23 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Fiorina 44 |
Boxer 48 |
+4 |
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10/21-24 Suffolk |
Fiorina 43 |
Boxer 52 |
+9 |
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10/21-23 PPP |
Fiorina 43 |
Boxer 52 |
+9 |
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10/21 Rasmussen |
Fiorina 46 |
Boxer 48 |
+2 |
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10/13-20 LA Times/USC |
Fiorina 42 |
Boxer 50 |
+8 |
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10/15-18 Survey USA |
Fiorina 44 |
Boxer 46 |
+2 |
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10/10-17 PPIC |
Fiorina 38 |
Boxer 43 |
+5 |
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10/16 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Fiorina 44 |
Boxer 48 |
+4 |
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10/13-14 Wilson Research |
Fiorina 46 |
Boxer 43 |
+3 |
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10/12-14 Reuters/Ipsos |
Fiorina 45 |
Boxer 46 |
+1 |
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10/13 Rasmussen |
Fiorina 46 |
Boxer 49 |
+3 |
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10/2-4 Reuters/Ipsos |
Fiorina 45 |
Boxer 49 |
+4 |
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10/3 Rasmussen |
Fiorina 45 |
Boxer 49 |
+4 |
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9/30-10/3 Survey USA |
Fiorina 43 |
Boxer 46 |
+3 |
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9/24-28 CNN/Time |
Fiorina 43 |
Boxer 52 |
+9 |
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9/19-26 PPIC |
Fiorina 35 |
Boxer 42 |
+7 |
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Colorado |
*(D) Michael Bennet vs. (R) Ken Buck |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Buck 47.9 |
Bennet 44.9 |
+3.0 |
GOP Pickup |
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2-Week AVERAGE |
Buck 47.8 |
Bennet 46.2 |
+1.6 |
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10/30-31 PPP |
Buck 49 |
Bennet 48 |
+1 |
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10/26-28 McClatchy/Marist |
Buck 49 |
Bennet 45 |
+4 |
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10/20-26 CNN/Time |
Buck 47 |
Bennet 46 |
+1 |
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10/25 Rasmussen |
Buck 48 |
Bennet 44 |
+4 |
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10/21-23 PPP |
Buck 47 |
Bennet 47 |
Tie |
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10/19-21 Denver Post / Survey USA |
Buck 47 |
Bennet 47 |
Tie |
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10/15-17 Reuters/Ipsos |
Buck 48 |
Bennet 45 |
+3 |
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10/16 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Buck 46 |
Bennet 45 |
+1 |
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10/14 Rasmussen |
Buck 47 |
Bennet 45 |
+2 |
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10/3 Rasmussen |
Buck 50 |
Bennet 45 |
+5 |
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9/30-10/2 PPP |
Buck 45 |
Bennet 46 |
+1 |
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9/28-30 Denver Post / Survey USA |
Buck 48 |
Bennet 43 |
+5 |
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9/26-28 Marist/McClatchy |
Buck 50 |
Bennet 42 |
+8 |
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9/27 Rasmussen |
Buck 51 |
Bennet 43 |
+8 |
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Buck 47 |
Bennet 43 |
+4 |
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Connecticut – *(D) Open Seat (Dodd Retiring) |
(R) Linda McMahon vs. (D) Richard Blumenthal |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
McMahon 43.1 |
Blumenthal 52.8 |
+9.8 |
Dem Hold |
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2-Week AVERAGE |
McMahon 43.2 |
Blumenthal 53.6 |
+10.4 |
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110/25-31 Quinnipiac |
McMahon 44 |
Blumenthal 53 |
+9 |
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10/27-29 PPP |
McMahon 43 |
Blumenthal 54 |
+11 |
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10/24-26 CT Capitol Report/MRG |
McMahon 44 |
Blumenthal 52 |
+8 |
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10/24 Rasmussen |
McMahon 43 |
Blumenthal 56 |
+13 |
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McMahon 42 |
Blumenthal 53 |
+11 |
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10/18-24 Quinnipiac |
McMahon 42 |
Blumenthal 54 |
+12 |
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10/19-20 Suffolk |
McMahon 39 |
Blumenthal 57 |
+18 |
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10/14 Rasmussen |
McMahon 46 |
Blumenthal 51 |
+5 |
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10/7-11 Quinnipiac |
McMahon 43 |
Blumenthal 54 |
+11 |
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10/9 Fox News/POR |
McMahon 43 |
Blumenthal 49 |
+6 |
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10/5 Rasmussen |
McMahon 43 |
Blumenthal 54 |
+11 |
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10/1-5 CNN/Time |
McMahon 41 |
Blumenthal 54 |
+13 |
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McMahon 45 |
Blumenthal 52 |
+7 |
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McMahon 42 |
Blumenthal 52 |
+10 |
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9/30-10/2 PPP |
McMahon 41 |
Blumenthal 53 |
+12 |
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9/26 Rasmussen |
McMahon 45 |
Blumenthal 50 |
+5 |
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9/21-26 Quinnipiac |
McMahon 46 |
Blumenthal 49 |
+3 |
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Delaware- *(D) Open Seat |
(VP Joe Biden’s Seat) —– (R) Christine O’Donnell vs. (D) Chris Coons |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
O’Donnell 37.3 |
Coons 54.2 |
+16.9 |
Dem Hold |
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10/25-27 Monmouth University |
O’Donnel 41 |
Coons 51 |
+10 |
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10/20-26 Fairleigh Dickinson |
O’Donnell 36 |
Coons 57 |
+21 |
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10/14 Rasmussen |
O’Donnell 40 |
Coons 51 |
+11 |
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10/11-12 Survey USA |
O’Donnell 33 |
Coons 54 |
+21 |
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10/8-12 CNN/Time |
O’Donnell 38 |
Coons 57 |
+19 |
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10/8-11 Monmouth University |
O’Donnell 38 |
Coons 57 |
+19 |
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10/10 Magellan Strategies |
O’Donnell 36 |
Coons 54 |
+18 |
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10/9 Fox News/POR |
O’Donnell 38 |
Coons 54 |
+16 |
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9/27-10/3 Fairleigh Dickinson |
O’Donnell 36 |
Coons 53 |
+17 |
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Florida *(R) Open Seat |
(R) Marco Rubio vs. (D) Kendrick Meek vs. (I) Charlie Crist |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Rubio 43.5 |
(I) Crist 30.2 (D) Meek 20.1 |
+13.2 |
GOP Hold |
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10/27 Rasmussen |
Rubio 50 |
(I) Crist 30 (D) Meek 16 |
+20 |
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10/26-27 Sunshine State News / VSS |
Rubio 47 |
(I) Crist 27 (D) Meek 23 |
+20 |
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10/25-27 Mason-Dixon |
Rubio 45 |
(I) Crist 28 (D) Meek 21 |
+17 |
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10/18-24 Quinnipiac |
Rubio 42 |
(I) Crist 35 (D) Meek 15 |
+7 |
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10/18-21 TC Palm/Zogby |
Rubio 40 |
(I) Crist 33 (D) Meek 18 |
+7 |
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10/15-19 St. Petersburg Times |
Rubio 41 |
(I) Crist 26 (D) Meek 20 |
+15 |
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10/15-19 CNN/Time |
Rubio 46 |
(I) Crist 32 (D) Meek 20 |
+14 |
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10/18 Rasmussen |
Rubio 43 |
(I) Crist 32 (D) Meek 20 |
+11 |
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10/14-17 Suffolk Univ. |
Rubio 39 |
(I) Crist 31 (D) Meek 22 |
+8 |
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10/9-10 PPP |
Rubio 44 |
(I) Crist 33 (D) Meek 21 |
+11 |
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10/6-10 Quinnipiac |
Rubio 44 |
(I) Crist 30 (D) Meek 22 |
+14 |
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10/6-10 Sunshine State News / VSS |
Rubio 45 |
(I) Crist 29 (D) Meek 22 |
+16 |
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10/7 Rasmussen |
Rubio 50 |
(I) Crist 25 (D) Meek 19 |
+25 |
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10/4-6 Mason-Dixon |
Rubio 42 |
(I) Crist 27 (D) Meek 21 |
+15 |
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9/27-30 FL COC/POS |
Rubio 40 |
(I) Crist 33 (D) Meek 16 |
+7 |
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9/28 Rasmussen |
Rubio 41 |
(I) Crist 30 (D) Meek 21 |
+11 |
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9/24-28 CNN/Time |
Rubio 42 |
(I) Crist 31 (D) Meek 23 |
+11 |
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9/23-26 Quinnipiac |
Rubio 46 |
(I) Crist 33 (D) Meek 18 |
+13 |
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9/20-22 Mason-Dixon |
Rubio 40 |
(I) Crist 28 (D) Meek 23 |
+12 |
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Georgia |
*(R) Johnny Isakson vs. (D) Michael Thurmond |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Isakson 57.4 |
Thurmond 32.6 |
+24.8 |
GOP Hold |
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10/26-28 Mason-Dixon |
Isakson 56 |
Thurmond 33 |
+23 |
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10/24 Rasmussen |
Isakson 59 |
Thurmond 29 |
+30 |
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10/21-24 Survey USA |
Isakson 58 |
Thurmond 34 |
+24 |
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10/6 Rasmussen |
Isakson 53 |
Thurmond 38 |
+15 |
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9/27 Insider Advantage |
Isakson 61 |
Thurmond 29 |
+32 |
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Hawaii |
* (D) Daniel Inouye vs. (R) Cam Cavasso |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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10/13 Rasmussen |
Cavasso 40 |
Inouye 53 |
+13 |
Dem Hold |
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Idaho |
*(R) Michael Crapo vs. (D) Tom Sullivan |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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10/20-22 Mason-Dixon |
Crapo 64 |
Sullivan 20 |
+44 |
GOP Hold |
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9/13-15 Mason-Dixon |
Crapo 61 |
Sullivan 17 |
+44 |
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8/31 Rasmussen |
Crapo 63 |
Sullivan 24 |
+39 |
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Illinois – *(D) Open Seat |
(Obama’s Old Seat) —– (R) Mark Kirk Vs. (D) Alex Giannoulias |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Kirk 42.3 |
Giannoulias 40.6 |
+1.7 |
GOP Pickup |
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2-Week AVERAGE |
Kirk 45.0 |
Giannoulias 41.7 |
+3.3 |
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10/30-31 PPP |
Kirk 46 |
Giannoulias 42 |
+4 |
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10/26 Rasmussen |
Kirk 46 |
Giannoulias 42 |
+4 |
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10/23 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Kirk 43 |
Giannoulias 41 |
+2 |
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10/18-22 Chicago Tribune |
Kirk 44 |
Giannoulias 41 |
+3 |
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10/18-20 Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon |
Kirk 43 |
Giannoulias 41 |
+2 |
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10/18 Rasmussen |
Kirk 44 |
Giannoulias 40 |
+4 |
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10/14-16 PPP |
Kirk 42 |
Giannoulias 40 |
+2 |
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10/11 Rasmussen |
Kirk 43 |
Giannoulias 44 |
+1 |
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9/30-10/10 The Simon Poll / SIU |
Kirk 37 |
Giannoulias 37 |
Tie |
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10/4 Rasmussen |
Kirk 45 |
Giannoulias 41 |
+4 |
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9/30-10/3 Suffolk |
Kirk 42 |
Giannoulias 41 |
+1 |
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9/24-28 CNN/Time |
Kirk 42 |
Giannoulias 43 |
+1 |
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9/24-28 Chicago Tribune |
Kirk 36 |
Giannoulias 38 |
+2 |
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9/24-28 CNN/Time |
Kirk 42 |
Giannoulias 43 |
+1 |
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9/23-26 PPP |
Kirk 40 |
Giannoulias 36 |
+4 |
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Kirk 42 |
Giannoulias 40 |
+2 |
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Indiana – *(D) Open Seat |
(Bayh Retiring) *(D) Brad Ellsworth vs. (R) Dan Coats |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Coats 52.5 |
Ellsworth 33.5 |
+19.0 |
GOP Pickup |
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10/21-25 Downs Center / SUSA |
Coats 54 |
Ellsworth 32 |
+22 |
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10/20-21 Rasmussen |
Coats 52 |
Ellsworth 34 |
+18 |
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10/19-21 WISHTV/EPIC-MCA |
Coats 53 |
Ellsworth 35 |
+18 |
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9/29-10/1 WISH-TV/EPIC-MRA |
Coats 51 |
Ellsworth 33 |
+18 |
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Iowa |
*(R) Charles Grassley vs. (D) Roxanne Conlin |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Grassley 59.0 |
Conlin 32.3 |
+26.7 |
GOP Hold |
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10/26-29 Des Moines Register |
Grassley 61 |
Conlin 30 |
+31 |
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9/23 Rasmussen |
Grassley 55 |
Conlin 37 |
+18 |
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9/19-22 Des Moines Register |
Grassley 61 |
Conlin 30 |
+30 |
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Kansas – *(R) Open Seat |
(Brownback Retiring) —– (R) Jerry Moran vs. (D) Lisa Johnston |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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10/10-12 Survey USA |
Moran 67 |
Johnston 27 |
+40 |
GOP Hold |
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9/14-16 Survey USA |
Moran 66 |
Johnston 24 |
+42 |
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Kentucky – *(R) Open Seat |
(Bunning Retiring) (R) Rand Paul vs. (D) Jack Conway |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
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AVERAGE |
Paul 49.7 |
Conway 41.5 |
+8.2 |
GOP Hold |
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2-Week AVERAGE |
Paul 51.4 |
Conway 41.3 |
+10.1 |
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10/28-30 PPP |
Paul 55 |
Conway 40 |
+15 |
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10/27 Rasmussen |
Paul 53 |
Conway 41 |
+12 |
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10/25-27 CN2/Braun Research |
Paul 47 |
Conway 39 |
+8 |
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10/24-27 Survey USA |
Paul 52 |
Conway 43 |
+9 |
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10/20-26 CNN/Time |
Paul 50 |
Conway 43 |
+7 |
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10/23 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Paul 50 |
Conway 43 |
+7 |
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10/21-24 PPP |
Paul 53 |
Conway 40 |
+13 |
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10/18-19 Mason-Dixon |
Paul 48 |
Conway 43 |
+5 |
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10/18 Rasmussen |
Paul 47 |
Conway 42 |
+5 |
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10/4-6 CN2/Braun Research |
Paul 43 |
Conway 40 |
+3 |
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9/29 Rasmussen |
Paul 49 |
Conway 38 |
+11 |
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9/21-23 Survey USA |
Paul 49 |
Conway 47 |
+2 |
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Louisiana |
*(R) David Vitter vs. (D) Charlie Melancon |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Vitter 51.0 |
Melancon 36.0 |
+15.0 |
GOP Hold |
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10/21-24 WWL-TV/Clarus Research |
Vitter 50 |
Melancon 38 |
+12 |
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10/24 Magellan |
Vitter 52 |
Melancon 35 |
+17 |
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10/10 Magellan |
Vitter 51 |
Melancon 35 |
+16 |
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Maryland |
*(D) Barbara Mikulski vs. (R) Eric Wargotz |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Wargotz 34.3 |
Mikulski 57.8 |
+23.5 |
Dem Hold |
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10/24 Rasmussen |
Wargotz 38 |
Mikulski 56 |
+18 |
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10/15-20 Baltimore Sun / Opinion Works |
Wargotz 32 |
Mikulski 59 |
+27 |
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10/11-16 Gonzalez Res. |
Wargotz 38 |
Mikulski 55 |
+17 |
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9/22-26 Washington Post |
Wargotz 29 |
Mikulski 61 |
+32 |
|
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Missouri *(R) Open Seat |
(Kit Bond Retiring) ——–(R) Roy Blunt vs. (D) Robin Carnahan |
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Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Blunt 51.1 |
Carnahan 41.7 |
+9.3 |
GOP Hold |
|
2-Week AVERAGE |
Blunt 51.5 |
Carnahan 40.5 |
+11.0 |
|
|
Blunt 54 |
Carnahan 41 |
+13 |
||
|
10/18-20 Post-Dispatch / Mason-Dixon |
Blunt 49 |
Carnahan 40 |
+9 |
|
|
10/19 Rasmussen |
Blunt 52 |
Carnahan 43 |
+9 |
|
|
10/16 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Blunt 49 |
Carnahan 43 |
+6 |
|
|
10/5 Rasmussen |
Blunt 51 |
Carnahan 43 |
+8 |
|
|
10/1-5 CNN/Time |
Blunt 53 |
Carnahan 40 |
+13 |
|
|
Blunt 50 |
Carnahan 42 |
+8 |
||
|
Nevada |
*(D) Harry Reid vs. (R) Sharron Angle |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Angle 47.6 |
Reid 45.9 |
+1.7 |
GOP Pickup |
|
2-Week AVERAGE |
Angle 48.4 |
Reid 45.2 |
+3.2 |
|
|
10/30-31 PPP |
Angle 47 |
Reid 46 |
+1 |
|
|
10/30 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Angle 48 |
Reid 45 |
+3 |
|
|
10/25-27 LVRJ/Mason-Dixon |
Angle 49 |
Reid 45 |
+4 |
|
|
10/20-26 CNN/Time |
Angle 49 |
Reid 45 |
+4 |
|
|
10/25 Rasmussen |
Angle 49 |
Reid 45 |
+4 |
|
|
10/17 Rasmussen |
Angle 50 |
Reid 47 |
+3 |
|
|
10/11-12 LVRJ/Mason-Dixon |
Angle 48 |
Reid 46 |
+2 |
|
|
10/11 Rasmussen |
Angle 49 |
Reid 48 |
+1 |
|
|
10/8-11 Suffolk |
Angle 43 |
Reid 46 |
+3 |
|
|
10/7-9 PPP |
Angle 45 |
Reid 47 |
+2 |
|
|
10/9 Fox News/POR |
Angle 49 |
Reid 47 |
+2 |
|
|
10/5 Rasmussen |
Angle 50 |
Reid 46 |
+4 |
|
|
10/1-5 CNN/Time |
Angle 42 |
Reid 40 |
+2 |
|
|
Angle 49 |
Reid 46 |
+3 |
||
|
9/28 Rasmussen |
Angle 47 |
Reid 48 |
+1 |
|
|
New Hampshire *(R) Open Seat |
(Judd Gregg Retiring) (R) Kelly Ayotte vs. (D) Paul Hodes |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Ayotte 50.9 |
Hodes 38.6 |
+12.3 |
GOP Hold |
|
10/27-29 PPP |
Ayotte 56 |
Hodes 41 |
+15 |
|
|
10/27 Rasmussen |
Ayotte 56 |
Hodes 41 |
+15 |
|
|
10/7-12 WMUR/UNH |
Ayotte 50 |
Hodes 35 |
+15 |
|
|
10/10 Rasmussen |
Ayotte 51 |
Hodes 44 |
+7 |
|
|
10/3-5 ARG |
Ayotte 47 |
Hodes 42 |
+5 |
|
|
9/23-29 WMUR/UNH |
Ayotte 50 |
Hodes 35 |
+15 |
|
|
9/22-26 American Research Group |
Ayotte 46 |
Hodes 32 |
+14 |
|
|
New York |
*(D) Chuck Schumer vs. (R) Jay Townsend |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
10/27-30 Siena |
Townsend 32 |
Schumer 64 |
+32 |
Dem Hold |
|
10/26-28 Marist |
Townsend 36 |
Schumer 60 |
+24 |
|
|
10/25-28 Survey USA |
Townsend 32 |
Schumer 62 |
+30 |
|
|
10/18-24 Quinnipiac |
Townsend 32 |
Schumer 64 |
+32 |
|
|
10/18-20 Marist |
Townsend 35 |
Schumer 63 |
+28 |
|
|
10/19 Rasmussen |
Townsend 31 |
Schumer 59 |
+28 |
|
|
10/14-18 Siena |
Townsend 28 |
Schumer 67 |
+39 |
|
|
10/10-15 New York Times |
Townsend 21 |
Schumer 61 |
+40 |
|
|
10/11-13 Survey USA |
Townsend 30 |
Schumer 63 |
+33 |
|
|
10/5-7 Survey USA |
Townsend 30 |
Schumer 60 |
+30 |
|
|
10/1-5 Quinnipiac |
Townsend 32 |
Schumer 63 |
+31 |
|
|
10/1-5 CNN/Time |
Townsend 41 |
Schumer 57 |
+16 |
|
|
10/1-3 PPP |
Townsend 37 |
Schumer 59 |
+22 |
|
|
9/19-22 Marist |
Townsend 37 |
Schumer 58 |
+21 |
|
|
New York |
*(D) Kirsten Gillibrand/ vs. (R) Joe DioGuardi |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
10/27-30 Siena |
DioGuardi 37 |
Gillibrand 57 |
+20 |
Dem Hold |
|
10/26-28 Marist |
DioGuardi 40 |
Gillibrand 55 |
+15 |
|
|
10/25-28 Survey USA |
DioGuardi 36 |
Gillibrand 56 |
+30 |
|
|
10/18-24 Quinnipiac |
DioGuardi 34 |
Gillibrand 57 |
+23 |
|
|
10/18-20 Marist |
DioGuardi 38 |
Gillibrand 56 |
+18 |
|
|
10/19 Rasmussen |
DioGuardi 33 |
Gillibrand 54 |
+21 |
|
|
10/14-18 Siena |
DioGuardi 31 |
Gillibrand 60 |
+29 |
|
|
10/10-15 New York Times |
DioGuardi 25 |
Gillibrand 50 |
+25 |
|
|
10/11-13 Survey USA |
DioGuardi 36 |
Gillibrand 54 |
+18 |
|
|
10/5-7 Survey USA |
DioGuardi 35 |
Gillibrand 54 |
+19 |
|
|
10/1-5 Quinnipiac |
DioGuardi 34 |
Gillibrand 55 |
+21 |
|
|
10/1-5 CNN/Time |
DioGuardi 41 |
Gillibrand 55 |
+14 |
|
|
10/1-3 PPP |
DioGuardi 40 |
Gillibrand 50 |
+10 |
|
|
9/19-22 Marist |
DioGuardi 41 |
Gillibrand 52 |
+11 |
|
|
North Carolina |
*(R) Richard Burr vs. (D) Elaine Marshall |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Burr 48.5 |
Marshall 36.2 |
+12.3 |
GOP Hold |
|
10/22-25 Survey USA |
Burr 53 |
Marshall 38 |
+15 |
|
|
10/18-20 Civitas |
Burr 44 |
Marshall 34 |
+10 |
|
|
10/15-17 PPP |
Burr 48 |
Marshall 40 |
+8 |
|
|
10/12 Rasmussen |
Burr 52 |
Marshall 38 |
+14 |
|
|
9/25-30 High Point University |
Burr 45 |
Marshall 31 |
+14 |
|
|
9/23-26 PPP |
Burr 49 |
Marshall 36 |
+13 |
|
|
North Dakota – *(D) Open Seat |
(Byron Dorgan Retiring) — (D) Tracey Potter vs. (R) Gov. John Hoeven |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Hoeven 70.0 |
Potter 25.0 |
+45.0 |
GOP Pickup |
|
10/21 Rasmussen |
Hoeven 72 |
Potter 25 |
+47 |
|
|
9/20-21 Rasmussen |
Hoeven 68 |
Potter 25 |
+43 |
|
|
Ohio -*(R) Open Seat |
(Voinovich Retiring) —-(R) Rob Portman vs. (D) Lee Fisher |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Portman 53.5 |
Fisher 37.2 |
+16.3 |
GOP Hold |
|
10/28-30 PPP |
Portman 57 |
Fisher 39 |
+18 |
|
|
10/25-30 Quinnipiac |
Portman 56 |
Fisher 37 |
+19 |
|
|
10/26 Rasmussen |
Portman 57 |
Fisher 33 |
+24 |
|
|
10/20-29 Columbus Dispatch |
Portman 56 |
Fisher 40 |
+16 |
|
|
10/22-26 Survey USA |
Portman 52 |
Fisher 37 |
+15 |
|
|
10/18-24 Quinnipiac |
Portman 53 |
Fisher 36 |
+17 |
|
|
10/15-19 CNN/Time |
Portman 55 |
Fisher 40 |
+15 |
|
|
10/14-18 Ohio Poll / Univ. of Cincinnati |
Portman 58 |
Fisher 39 |
+19 |
|
|
10/12-17 Quinnipiac |
Portman 55 |
Fisher 34 |
+21 |
|
|
10/8-13 Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati |
Portman 58 |
Fisher 36 |
+22 |
|
|
10/11 Rasmussen |
Portman 57 |
Fisher 34 |
+23 |
|
|
10/9 Fox News/POR |
Portman 52 |
Fisher 35 |
+17 |
|
|
10/8 Angus-Reid |
Portman 52 |
Fisher 43 |
+9 |
|
|
10/4-6 Suffolk |
Portman 47 |
Fisher 37 |
+10 |
|
|
9/29-10/3 Quinnipiac |
Portman 55 |
Fisher 36 |
+19 |
|
|
Portman 53 |
Fisher 37 |
+16 |
||
|
9/27 Rasmussen |
Portman 51 |
Fisher 42 |
+9 |
|
|
9/23-27 CBS News/NYT |
Portman 45 |
Fisher 34 |
+11 |
|
|
9/23-25 Reuters/Ipsos |
Portman 50 |
Fisher 37 |
+13 |
|
|
Portman 50 |
Fisher 37 |
+13 |
||
|
Oklahoma |
*(R) Tom Coburn vs. (D) Jim Rogers |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
9/23 Rasmussen |
Coburn 68 |
Rogers 26 |
+42 |
GOP Hold |
|
Oregon |
*(D) Ron Wyden vs. (R) Jim Huffman |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Huffman 36.8 |
Wyden 54.8 |
+18.0 |
Dem Hold |
|
10/23-28 Survey USA |
Huffman 32 |
Wyden 57 |
+25 |
|
|
10/25 Rasmussen |
Huffman 42 |
Wyden 53 |
+11 |
|
|
10/16-17 Daily Kos/PPP |
Huffman 40 |
Wyden 56 |
+16 |
|
|
10/12-14 Survey USA |
Huffman 34 |
Wyden 56 |
+22 |
|
|
10/10 Rasmussen |
Huffman 36 |
Wyden 52 |
+16 |
|
|
Pennsylvania |
*(D) Joe Sestak Vs. (R) Pat Toomey |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Toomey 47.1 |
Sestak 41.9 |
+5.2 |
GOP Pickup |
|
2-Week AVERAGE |
Toomey 48.1 |
Sestak 44.0 |
+4.1 |
|
|
10/30-31 PPP |
Toomey 51 |
Sestak 46 |
+5 |
|
|
**10/28-31 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 48 |
Sestak 44 |
+4 |
|
|
10/27-30 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 45 |
Sestak 43 |
+2 |
|
|
10/26-29 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 45 |
Sestak 43 |
+2 |
|
|
10/28 Rasmussen |
Toomey 50 |
Sestak 46 |
+4 |
|
|
10/26-28 McClatchy/Marist |
Toomey 52 |
Sestak 45 |
+7 |
|
|
10/25-28 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 47 |
Sestak 42 |
+5 |
|
|
10/25-30 Quinnipiac |
Toomey 50 |
Sestak 45 |
+5 |
|
|
10/24-27 Susquehanna |
Toomey 46 |
Sestak 44 |
+2 |
|
|
10/24-27 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 48 |
Sestak 40 |
+8 |
|
|
10/23-26 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 46 |
Sestak 41 |
+5 |
|
|
10/20-26 CNN/Time |
Toomey 49 |
Sestak 45 |
+4 |
|
|
10/18-24 Franklin & Marshall |
Toomey 43 |
Sestak 36 |
+7 |
|
|
10/22-25 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 48 |
Sestak 40 |
+8 |
|
|
10/22-24 Reuters/Ipsos |
Toomey 46 |
Sestak 46 |
Tie |
|
|
10/21-24 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 47 |
Sestak 42 |
+5 |
|
|
10/20-23 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 46 |
Sestak 43 |
+3 |
|
|
10/19-22 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 45 |
Sestak 42 |
+3 |
|
|
10/21 Rasmussen |
Toomey 48 |
Sestak 44 |
+4 |
|
|
10/18-21 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 43 |
Sestak 43 |
Tie |
|
|
10/17-20 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 43 |
Sestak 43 |
Tie |
|
|
10/17-18 PPP |
Toomey 45 |
Sestak 46 |
+1 |
|
|
10/13-17 Quinnipiac |
Toomey 48 |
Sestak 46 |
+2 |
|
|
10/16-19 Morning Call Tracking |
Toomey 41 |
Sestak 44 |
+3 |
|
|
10/12 Rasmussen |
Toomey 49 |
Sestak 39 |
+10 |
|
|
9/28-10/4 Morning Call |
Toomey 45 |
Sestak 38 |
+7 |
|
|
9/29 Rasmussen |
Toomey 49 |
Sestak 40 |
+9 |
|
|
9/26-28 McClatchy/Marist |
Toomey 51 |
Sestak 42 |
+9 |
|
|
9/24-27 Suffolk Univ. |
Toomey 45 |
Sestak 40 |
+5 |
|
|
9/23-26 Susquehanna |
Toomey 45 |
Sestak 42 |
+3 |
|
|
9/20-26 Franklin & Marshall |
Toomey 38 |
Sestak 29 |
+9 |
|
|
9/18-23 Morning Call |
Toomey 46 |
Sestak 39 |
+7 |
|
|
South Carolina |
*(R) Jim DeMint vs. (D) Alvin Greene |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
10/19 Rasmussen |
DeMint 58 |
Greene 21 |
+37 |
GOP Hold |
|
10/5-10 Winthrop |
DeMint 58 |
Greene 11 |
+47 |
|
|
9/22 Rasmussen |
DeMint 64 |
Greene 21 |
+43 |
|
|
South Dakota |
*(R) John Thune vs. No Major Party Opposition |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
|
|
|
|
GOP Hold |
|
Utah |
*(R) Mike Lee vs. (D) Sam Granato |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
10/25-28 Deseret News |
Lee 57 |
Granato 30 |
+27 |
GOP Hold |
|
10/25-27 Mason-Dixon |
Lee 48 |
Granato 32 |
+16 |
|
|
10/11-14 Deseret News |
Lee 53 |
Granato 31 |
+22 |
|
|
10/13 Rasmussen |
Lee 61 |
Granato 28 |
+33 |
|
|
Vermont |
*(D) Patrick Leahy vs. (R) Len Britton |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
10/11-13 VPR/Mason-Dixon |
Britton 27 |
Leahy 62 |
+35 |
Dem Hold |
|
9/13 Rasmussen |
Britton 32 |
Leahy 62 |
+30 |
|
|
Washington |
*(D) Patty Murray vs. (R) Dino Rossi |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Rossi 46.4 |
Murray 48.4 |
+2.0 |
GOP Gain |
|
2-Week AVERAGE |
Rossi 48.0 |
Murray 48.0 |
Tie |
|
|
10/29-31 PPP |
Rossi 50 |
Murray 48 |
+2 |
|
|
10/30 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Rossi 47 |
Murray 49 |
+2 |
|
|
10/26-28 McClatchy/Marist |
Rossi 48 |
Murray 49 |
+1 |
|
|
10/27 Rasmussen |
Rossi 48 |
Murray 47 |
+1 |
|
|
10/24-27 Survey USA |
Rossi 47 |
Murray 47 |
Tie |
|
|
10/18-28 The Washington Poll |
Rossi 45 |
Murray 51 |
+6 |
|
|
10/17 Rasmussen |
Rossi 46 |
Murray 49 |
+3 |
|
|
10/14-17 McClatchy/Marist |
Rossi 47 |
Murray 48 |
+1 |
|
|
10/14-16 PPP |
Rossi 47 |
Murray 49 |
+2 |
|
|
10/5-14 The Washington Poll |
Rossi 42 |
Murray 50 |
+8 |
|
|
10/10-12 Survey USA |
Rossi 47 |
Murray 50 |
+3 |
|
|
10/8-12 CNN/Time |
Rossi 43 |
Murray 51 |
+8 |
|
|
10/7-11 Elway Poll |
Rossi 40 |
Murray 55 |
+15 |
|
|
10/9 Fox News/POR |
Rossi 47 |
Murray 46 |
+1 |
|
|
10/6 Rasmussen |
Rossi 49 |
Murray 46 |
+3 |
|
|
9/28 Rasmussen |
Rossi 48 |
Murray 47 |
+1 |
|
|
9/26-27 AAF/Fabrizio |
Rossi 48 |
Murray 42 |
+6 |
|
|
Rossi 47 |
Murray 48 |
+1 |
||
|
West Virginia (Special Election to Fill Robert Byrd Seat) |
*(D) Joe Manchin vs. (R) John Raese |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Raese 46.5 |
Manchin 46.9 |
+0.4 |
Dem Hold |
|
2-Week AVERAGE |
Raese 46.0 |
Manchin 49.3 |
+3.3 |
|
|
10/31 Rasmussen |
Raese 46 |
Manchin 50 |
+4 |
|
|
10/31 Quinnipiac |
Raese 46 |
Manchin 50 |
+4 |
|
|
10/30-31 PPP |
Raese 46 |
Manchin 51 |
+5 |
|
|
10/26 Rasmussen |
Raese 46 |
Manchin 49 |
+3 |
|
|
10/23-24 PPP |
Raese 44 |
Manchin 50 |
+6 |
|
|
10/23 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Raese 48 |
Manchin 46 |
+2 |
|
|
10/17 Rasmussen |
Raese 50 |
Manchin 43 |
+7 |
|
|
10/16 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen |
Raese 48 |
Manchin 45 |
+3 |
|
|
10/12 Rasmussen |
Raese 49 |
Manchin 46 |
+3 |
|
|
10/11-12 Marshall Univ./Orion Strategies |
Raese 39 |
Manchin 49 |
+10 |
|
|
10/8-12 CNN/Time |
Raese 44 |
Manchin 44 |
Tie |
|
|
10/9-10 PPP |
Raese 45 |
Manchin 48 |
+3 |
|
|
10/5 Rasmussen |
Raese 50 |
Manchin 44 |
+6 |
|
|
Raese 48 |
Manchin 43 |
+5 |
||
|
9/27 Rasmussen |
Raese 48 |
Manchin 46 |
+2 |
|
|
Wisconsin |
*(D) Russ Feingold vs. (R) Ron Johnson |
|||
|
Poll |
Republican |
Democrat |
Margin |
Projection |
|
AVERAGE |
Johnson 51.7 |
Feingold 44.3 |
+7.5 |
GOP Pickup |
|
2-Week AVERAGE |
Johnson 52.7 |
Feingold 45.0 |
+7.7 |
|
|
10/26-28 McClatchy/Marist |
Johnson 52 |
Feingold 45 |
+7 |
|
|
10/26-28 PPP |
Johnson 53 |
Feingold 44 |
+9 |
|
|
10/25 Rasmussen |
Johnson 53 |
Feingold 46 |
+7 |
|
|
10/12-15 WPR/St. Norbert |
Johnson 49 |
Feingold 47 |
+2 |
|
|
10/8-12 CNN/Time |
Johnson 52 |
Feingold 44 |
+8 |
|
|
10/11 Rasmussen |
Johnson 52 |
Feingold 45 |
+7 |
|
|
10/8-11 Reuters/Ipsos |
Johnson 51 |
Feingold 44 |
+7 |
|
|
9/29-10/4 “We the People” / VCR |
Johnson 49 |
Feingold 41 |
+8 |
|
|
9/29 Rasmussen |
Johnson 54 |
Feingold 42 |
+12 |
|
|
9/26-28 McClatchy/Marist |
Johnson 52 |
Feingold 45 |
+7 |
|
|
Johnson 52 |
Feingold 44 |
+8 |
||
|
*= Incumbent Candidate
** = For “Tracking Polls,” only the most recent one is used for figuring the average on a race.
NOTE: Because both Independents (Sanders, Lieberman) caucus with the Democrats, it will take a net GOP Pickup of 10 Seats for the Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate
NOTE: Please note that polls older than 40 days have been listed if there are either no newer polls or only one newer poll for that state. |
||||
