2010 U.S. Senate Polls & Projections

2:30 PM CT, 11/7/10 – The final net gain for Republicans in the 2010 U.S. Senate Elections is +6. The only outstanding race is in Alaska, where GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski is likely going to prevail of GOP Nominee Joe Miller. Murkowski mounted a “write-in” campaign, and it appears she has an insurmountable lead. It won’t be known for sure until all the write-in ballots are counted and certified. At this time, “write-in” has a 13,000 vote lead over Joe Miller. It is expected that the vast majority of those “write-in” votes are for Murkowski.

9:00 AM, 11/3/10 - Currently, the GOP has a net gain of 6-seats in the U.S. Senate from yesterday’s Midterm Elections. Republican pickups: Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Washington and Colorado remain uncalled, but the Democrats have razor-thin margins in both. Alaska has not yet been called either, but it will be either Murkowski or Miller the winner there – both Republicans.

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Here is the final “2010 U.S. Senate Races – Polls and Projections” Table. Our final projection is that the GOP will wind up with a net gain of 9 Senate Seats on November 2 in the 2010 Midterm Elections.

As of September 4, we no longer rate any races as a “Tossup.” Instead, we make a projection based on polling and our best estimate if the race is a statistical tie.

Check our final U.S. House Projections.


2010 Mid-Term U.S. Senate Races – Polls and Projections

The last 40 days of polls are included to give an idea of how the race is trending, with averages shown for competitive races where nominees have been determined. Projections for each state are based on a combination of the 40-day average of poll data, recent trending, and the all important “gut feeling.”

 

Polls released since 9/22 included in the 40-Day Average, since 10/18 in the 2-Week Average (only given for close races).  

 

FINAL PROJECTION – 11/1/10, 11:15 PM CT 

 

Projected Net GOP Gain of 9 Seats (No Tossups)

     CURRENT SENATE = Dems 57, GOP 41, Independents 2

 PROJECTED SENATE = Dems 48, GOP 50, Independents 2

Alabama

*(R) Richard Shelby vs. (D) William Barnes

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

9/21  Rasmussen

Shelby 58

Barnes 30

+28

GOP Hold

Alaska

*(R) Joe Miller vs. (D) Scott McAdams vs. (R) Sen. Lisa Murkowski (Write-in Candidacy)

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Miller 34.4

(D) McAdams 24.2

(R – Write in) Murkowski 35.4

+1.0

GOP Hold (Murkowski)

2-Week AVERAGE

Miller 32.0

McAdams 23.0

Murkowski 37.0

+5

10/23-28  Dittman Research

Miller 27

McAdams 23

Murkowski 37

+10

10/15-19  CNN/Time

Miller 37

McAdams 23

Murkowski 37

Tie

10/13  Rasmussen

Miller 35

McAdams 27

Murkowski 34

+1

10/9-10 Daily Kos/PPP

Miller 35

McAdams 26

Murkowski 33

+2

9/24-28  CNN/Time

Miller 38

McAdams 22

Murkowski 36

+2

Arizona

*(R) John McCain vs. (D) Rodney Glassman

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

McCain 54.5

Glassman 31.3

+23.2

GOP Hold

10/28  Rasmussen

McCain 52

Glassman 32

+20

10/23-24 Daily Kos/PPP

McCain 56

Glassman 38

+18

10/1-10 Behavior Research Center

McCain 56

Glassman 22

+34

10/3  Rasmussen

McCain 54

Glassman 33

+21

Arkansas

*(D) Blanche Lincoln vs. (R) John Boozman

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Boozman 54.8

Lincoln 36.6

+18.2

GOP Pickup

10/28  Rasmussen

Boozman 55

Lincoln 36

+19

10/8-20 The Arkansas Poll

Boozman 54

Lincoln 35

+19

10/15-19 Mason-Dixon

Boozman 55

Lincoln 34

+21

10/15-19  CNN/Time

Boozman 55

Lincoln 41

+14

9/30  Rasmussen

Boozman 55

Lincoln 37

+18

California

*(D) Barbara Boxer vs. (R) Carly Fiorina

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Fiorina 43.1

Boxer 47.8

+4.7

Dem Hold

2-Week AVERAGE

Fiorina 43.2

Boxer 48.9

+5.7

10/29-31  PPP

Fiorina 46

Boxer 50

+4

10/26-31  Survey USA

Fiorina 38

Boxer 46

+8

10/27  Rasmussen

Fiorina 46

Boxer 49

+3

10/14-26  Field

Fiorina 41

Boxer 49

+8

10/20-26  CNN/Time

Fiorina 45

Boxer 50

+5

10/21-25  Survey USA

Fiorina 40

Boxer 45

+5

10/23  Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Fiorina 44

Boxer 48

+4

10/21-24  Suffolk

Fiorina 43

Boxer 52

+9

10/21-23  PPP

Fiorina 43

Boxer 52

+9

10/21  Rasmussen

Fiorina 46

Boxer 48

+2

10/13-20  LA Times/USC

Fiorina 42

Boxer 50

+8

10/15-18  Survey USA

Fiorina 44

Boxer 46

+2

10/10-17  PPIC

Fiorina 38

Boxer 43

+5

10/16 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Fiorina 44

Boxer 48

+4

10/13-14  Wilson Research

Fiorina 46

Boxer 43

+3

10/12-14  Reuters/Ipsos

Fiorina 45

Boxer 46

+1

10/13  Rasmussen

Fiorina 46

Boxer 49

+3

10/2-4  Reuters/Ipsos

Fiorina 45

Boxer 49

+4

10/3  Rasmussen

Fiorina 45

Boxer 49

+4

9/30-10/3 Survey USA

Fiorina 43

Boxer 46

+3

9/24-28  CNN/Time

Fiorina 43

Boxer 52

+9

9/19-26  PPIC

Fiorina 35

Boxer 42

+7

Colorado

*(D) Michael Bennet vs. (R) Ken Buck

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Buck 47.9

Bennet 44.9

+3.0

GOP Pickup

2-Week AVERAGE

Buck 47.8

Bennet 46.2

+1.6

10/30-31  PPP

Buck 49

Bennet 48

+1

10/26-28  McClatchy/Marist

Buck 49

Bennet 45

+4

10/20-26  CNN/Time

Buck 47

Bennet 46

+1

10/25  Rasmussen

Buck 48

Bennet 44

+4

10/21-23  PPP

Buck 47

Bennet 47

Tie

10/19-21  Denver Post / Survey USA

Buck 47

Bennet 47

Tie

10/15-17 Reuters/Ipsos

Buck 48

Bennet 45

+3

10/16  Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Buck 46

Bennet 45

+1

10/14  Rasmussen

Buck 47

Bennet 45

+2

10/3  Rasmussen

Buck 50

Bennet 45

+5

9/30-10/2  PPP

Buck 45

Bennet 46

+1

9/28-30 Denver Post / Survey USA

Buck 48

Bennet 43

+5

9/26-28 Marist/McClatchy

Buck 50

Bennet 42               

+8

9/27  Rasmussen

Buck 51

Bennet 43

+8

9/25 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Buck 47

Bennet 43

+4

Connecticut – *(D) Open Seat (Dodd Retiring)

 

(R) Linda McMahon vs. (D) Richard Blumenthal

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

McMahon 43.1

Blumenthal 52.8

+9.8

Dem Hold

2-Week AVERAGE

McMahon 43.2

Blumenthal 53.6

+10.4

110/25-31  Quinnipiac

McMahon 44

Blumenthal 53

+9

10/27-29  PPP

McMahon 43

Blumenthal 54

+11

10/24-26 CT Capitol Report/MRG

McMahon 44

Blumenthal 52

+8

10/24  Rasmussen

McMahon 43

Blumenthal 56

+13

10/23  Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

McMahon 42

Blumenthal 53

+11

10/18-24  Quinnipiac

McMahon 42

Blumenthal 54

+12

10/19-20  Suffolk

McMahon 39

Blumenthal 57

+18

10/14  Rasmussen

McMahon 46

Blumenthal 51

+5

10/7-11  Quinnipiac

McMahon 43

Blumenthal 54

+11

10/9  Fox News/POR

McMahon 43

Blumenthal 49

+6

10/5  Rasmussen

McMahon 43

Blumenthal 54

+11

10/1-5 CNN/Time

McMahon 41

Blumenthal 54

+13

10/3 CT Capitol Report/MRG

McMahon 45

Blumenthal 52

+7

10/2 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

McMahon 42

Blumenthal 52

+10

9/30-10/2  PPP

McMahon 41

Blumenthal 53

+12

9/26  Rasmussen

McMahon 45

Blumenthal 50

+5

9/21-26 Quinnipiac

McMahon 46

Blumenthal 49

+3

Delaware- *(D) Open Seat

(VP Joe Biden’s Seat) —– (R) Christine O’Donnell vs. (D) Chris Coons

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

O’Donnell 37.3

Coons 54.2

+16.9

Dem Hold

10/25-27  Monmouth University

O’Donnel 41

Coons 51

+10

10/20-26  Fairleigh Dickinson

O’Donnell 36

Coons 57

+21

10/14  Rasmussen

O’Donnell 40

Coons 51

+11

10/11-12  Survey USA

O’Donnell 33

Coons 54

+21

10/8-12  CNN/Time

O’Donnell 38

Coons 57

+19

10/8-11 Monmouth University

O’Donnell 38

Coons 57

+19

10/10  Magellan Strategies

O’Donnell 36

Coons 54

+18

10/9  Fox News/POR

O’Donnell 38

Coons 54

+16

9/27-10/3 Fairleigh Dickinson

O’Donnell 36

Coons 53

+17

Florida *(R) Open Seat  

(R) Marco Rubio  vs. (D) Kendrick Meek vs. (I) Charlie Crist

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Rubio 43.5

(I) Crist 30.2

(D) Meek 20.1

+13.2

GOP Hold

10/27  Rasmussen

Rubio 50

(I) Crist 30

(D) Meek 16

+20

10/26-27  Sunshine State News / VSS

Rubio 47

(I) Crist 27

(D) Meek 23

+20

10/25-27 Mason-Dixon

Rubio 45

(I) Crist 28

(D) Meek 21

+17

10/18-24  Quinnipiac

Rubio 42

(I) Crist 35

(D) Meek 15

+7

10/18-21 TC Palm/Zogby

Rubio 40

(I) Crist 33

(D) Meek 18

+7

10/15-19  St. Petersburg Times

Rubio 41

(I) Crist 26

(D) Meek 20

+15

10/15-19  CNN/Time

Rubio 46

(I) Crist 32

(D) Meek 20

+14

10/18  Rasmussen

Rubio 43

(I) Crist 32

(D) Meek 20

+11

10/14-17 Suffolk Univ.

Rubio 39

(I) Crist 31

(D) Meek 22

+8

10/9-10  PPP

Rubio 44

(I) Crist 33

(D) Meek 21

+11

10/6-10  Quinnipiac

Rubio 44

(I) Crist 30

(D) Meek 22

+14

10/6-10  Sunshine State News / VSS

Rubio 45

(I) Crist 29

(D) Meek 22

+16

10/7  Rasmussen

Rubio 50

(I) Crist 25

(D) Meek 19

+25

10/4-6  Mason-Dixon

Rubio 42

(I) Crist 27

(D) Meek 21

+15

9/27-30  FL COC/POS

Rubio 40

(I) Crist 33

(D) Meek 16

+7

9/28  Rasmussen

Rubio 41

(I) Crist 30

(D) Meek 21

+11

9/24-28  CNN/Time

Rubio 42

(I) Crist 31

(D) Meek 23

+11

9/23-26 Quinnipiac

Rubio 46

(I) Crist 33

(D) Meek 18

+13

9/20-22  Mason-Dixon

Rubio 40

(I) Crist 28

(D) Meek 23

+12

Georgia

*(R) Johnny Isakson vs. (D) Michael Thurmond

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Isakson 57.4

Thurmond 32.6

+24.8

GOP Hold

10/26-28  Mason-Dixon

Isakson 56

Thurmond 33

+23

10/24  Rasmussen

Isakson 59

Thurmond 29

+30

10/21-24  Survey USA

Isakson 58

Thurmond 34

+24

10/6  Rasmussen

Isakson 53

Thurmond 38

+15

9/27 Insider Advantage

Isakson 61

Thurmond 29

+32

Hawaii

* (D) Daniel Inouye vs. (R) Cam Cavasso

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

10/13  Rasmussen

Cavasso 40

Inouye 53

+13

Dem Hold

Idaho

*(R) Michael Crapo vs.  (D) Tom Sullivan

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

10/20-22  Mason-Dixon

Crapo 64

Sullivan 20

+44

GOP Hold

9/13-15  Mason-Dixon

Crapo 61

Sullivan 17

+44

8/31  Rasmussen

Crapo 63

Sullivan 24

+39

Illinois*(D) Open Seat

(Obama’s Old Seat)  —– (R) Mark Kirk Vs. (D) Alex Giannoulias

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Kirk 42.3

Giannoulias 40.6

+1.7

GOP Pickup

2-Week AVERAGE

Kirk 45.0

Giannoulias 41.7

+3.3

10/30-31  PPP

Kirk 46

Giannoulias 42

+4

10/26  Rasmussen

Kirk 46

Giannoulias 42

+4

10/23 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Kirk 43

Giannoulias 41

+2

10/18-22 Chicago Tribune

Kirk 44

Giannoulias 41

+3

10/18-20  Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon

Kirk 43

Giannoulias 41

+2

10/18  Rasmussen

Kirk 44

Giannoulias 40

+4

10/14-16  PPP

Kirk 42

Giannoulias 40

+2

10/11  Rasmussen

Kirk 43

Giannoulias 44

+1

9/30-10/10 The Simon Poll / SIU

Kirk 37

Giannoulias 37

Tie

10/4  Rasmussen

Kirk 45

Giannoulias 41

+4

9/30-10/3  Suffolk

Kirk 42

Giannoulias 41

+1

9/24-28  CNN/Time

Kirk 42

Giannoulias 43

+1

9/24-28  Chicago Tribune

Kirk 36

Giannoulias 38

+2

9/24-28  CNN/Time

Kirk 42

Giannoulias 43

+1

9/23-26  PPP

Kirk 40

Giannoulias 36

+4

9/25 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Kirk 42

Giannoulias 40

+2

Indiana – *(D) Open Seat

(Bayh Retiring) *(D) Brad Ellsworth vs. (R) Dan Coats

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Coats 52.5

Ellsworth 33.5

+19.0

GOP Pickup

10/21-25  Downs Center / SUSA

Coats 54

Ellsworth 32

+22

10/20-21  Rasmussen

Coats 52

Ellsworth 34

+18

10/19-21 WISHTV/EPIC-MCA

Coats 53

Ellsworth 35

+18

9/29-10/1 WISH-TV/EPIC-MRA

Coats 51

Ellsworth 33

+18

Iowa

*(R) Charles Grassley vs. (D) Roxanne Conlin

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Grassley 59.0

Conlin 32.3

+26.7

GOP Hold

10/26-29  Des Moines Register

Grassley 61

Conlin 30

+31

9/23  Rasmussen

Grassley 55

Conlin 37

+18

9/19-22  Des Moines Register

Grassley 61

Conlin 30

+30

Kansas*(R) Open Seat

(Brownback Retiring)  —– (R) Jerry Moran vs. (D) Lisa Johnston

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

10/10-12  Survey USA

Moran 67

Johnston 27

+40

GOP Hold

9/14-16  Survey USA

Moran 66

Johnston 24

+42

Kentucky*(R) Open Seat

(Bunning Retiring)  (R) Rand Paul vs. (D) Jack Conway

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Paul 49.7

Conway 41.5

+8.2

GOP Hold

2-Week AVERAGE

Paul 51.4

Conway 41.3

+10.1

10/28-30  PPP

Paul 55

Conway 40

+15

10/27  Rasmussen

Paul 53

Conway 41

+12

10/25-27 CN2/Braun Research

Paul 47

Conway 39

+8

10/24-27  Survey USA

Paul 52

Conway 43

+9

10/20-26  CNN/Time

Paul 50

Conway 43

+7

10/23  Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Paul 50

Conway 43

+7

10/21-24  PPP

Paul 53

Conway 40

+13

10/18-19  Mason-Dixon

Paul 48

Conway 43

+5

10/18  Rasmussen

Paul 47

Conway 42

+5

10/4-6 CN2/Braun Research

Paul 43

Conway 40

+3

9/29  Rasmussen

Paul 49

Conway 38

+11

9/21-23  Survey USA

Paul 49

Conway 47

+2

Louisiana

*(R) David Vitter  vs. (D) Charlie Melancon

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Vitter 51.0

Melancon 36.0

+15.0

GOP Hold

10/21-24  WWL-TV/Clarus Research

Vitter 50

Melancon 38

+12

10/24  Magellan

Vitter 52

Melancon 35

+17

10/10  Magellan

Vitter 51

Melancon 35

+16

Maryland

*(D) Barbara Mikulski vs. (R) Eric Wargotz

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Wargotz 34.3

Mikulski 57.8

+23.5

Dem Hold

10/24  Rasmussen

Wargotz 38

Mikulski 56

+18

10/15-20  Baltimore Sun / Opinion Works

Wargotz 32

Mikulski 59

+27

10/11-16 Gonzalez Res.

Wargotz 38

Mikulski 55

+17

9/22-26  Washington Post

Wargotz 29

Mikulski 61

+32

Missouri *(R) Open Seat

(Kit Bond Retiring) ——–(R) Roy Blunt vs. (D) Robin Carnahan

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Blunt 51.1

Carnahan 41.7

+9.3

GOP Hold

2-Week AVERAGE

Blunt 51.5

Carnahan 40.5

+11.0

10/20-27  KSN/Missouri State University

Blunt 54

Carnahan 41

+13

10/18-20  Post-Dispatch / Mason-Dixon

Blunt 49

Carnahan 40

+9

10/19  Rasmussen

Blunt 52

Carnahan 43

+9

10/16  Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Blunt 49

Carnahan 43

+6

10/5  Rasmussen

Blunt 51

Carnahan 43

+8

10/1-5  CNN/Time

Blunt 53

Carnahan 40

+13

10/2 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Blunt 50

Carnahan 42

+8

Nevada

*(D) Harry Reid vs. (R) Sharron Angle

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Angle 47.6

Reid 45.9

+1.7

GOP Pickup

2-Week AVERAGE

Angle 48.4

Reid 45.2

+3.2

10/30-31  PPP

Angle 47

Reid 46

+1

10/30  Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Angle 48

Reid 45

+3

10/25-27 LVRJ/Mason-Dixon

Angle 49

Reid 45

+4

10/20-26  CNN/Time

Angle 49

Reid 45

+4

10/25  Rasmussen

Angle 49

Reid 45

+4

10/17  Rasmussen

Angle 50

Reid 47

+3

10/11-12  LVRJ/Mason-Dixon

Angle 48

Reid 46

+2

10/11  Rasmussen

Angle 49

Reid 48

+1

10/8-11  Suffolk

Angle 43

Reid 46

+3

10/7-9  PPP

Angle 45

Reid 47

+2

10/9  Fox News/POR

Angle 49

Reid 47

+2

10/5  Rasmussen

Angle 50

Reid 46

+4

10/1-5  CNN/Time

Angle 42

Reid 40

+2

10/2 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Angle 49

Reid 46

+3

9/28  Rasmussen

Angle 47

Reid 48

+1

New Hampshire  *(R) Open Seat

 

(Judd Gregg Retiring) (R) Kelly Ayotte vs. (D) Paul Hodes

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Ayotte 50.9

Hodes 38.6

+12.3

GOP Hold

10/27-29  PPP

Ayotte 56

Hodes 41

+15

10/27  Rasmussen

Ayotte 56

Hodes 41

+15

10/7-12  WMUR/UNH

Ayotte 50

Hodes 35

+15

10/10  Rasmussen

Ayotte 51

Hodes 44

+7

10/3-5  ARG

Ayotte 47

Hodes 42

+5

9/23-29  WMUR/UNH

Ayotte 50

Hodes 35

+15

9/22-26 American Research Group

Ayotte 46

Hodes 32

+14

New York

*(D) Chuck Schumer vs. (R) Jay Townsend

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

10/27-30  Siena

Townsend 32

Schumer 64

+32

Dem Hold

10/26-28  Marist

Townsend 36

Schumer 60

+24

10/25-28  Survey USA

Townsend 32

Schumer 62

+30

10/18-24  Quinnipiac

Townsend 32

Schumer 64

+32

10/18-20  Marist

Townsend 35

Schumer 63

+28

10/19  Rasmussen

Townsend 31

Schumer 59

+28

10/14-18  Siena

Townsend 28

Schumer 67

+39

10/10-15  New York Times

Townsend 21

Schumer 61

+40

10/11-13  Survey USA

Townsend 30

Schumer 63

+33

10/5-7  Survey USA

Townsend 30

Schumer 60

+30

10/1-5  Quinnipiac

Townsend 32

Schumer 63

+31

10/1-5  CNN/Time

Townsend 41

Schumer 57

+16

10/1-3  PPP

Townsend 37

Schumer 59

+22

9/19-22  Marist

Townsend 37

Schumer 58

+21

New York

*(D) Kirsten Gillibrand/ vs. (R) Joe DioGuardi

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

10/27-30  Siena

DioGuardi 37

Gillibrand 57

+20

Dem Hold

10/26-28  Marist

DioGuardi 40

Gillibrand 55

+15

10/25-28  Survey USA

DioGuardi 36

Gillibrand 56

+30

10/18-24  Quinnipiac

DioGuardi 34

Gillibrand 57

+23

10/18-20  Marist

DioGuardi 38

Gillibrand 56

+18

10/19  Rasmussen

DioGuardi 33

Gillibrand 54

+21

10/14-18  Siena

DioGuardi 31

Gillibrand 60

+29

10/10-15  New York Times

DioGuardi 25

Gillibrand 50

+25

10/11-13  Survey USA

DioGuardi 36

Gillibrand 54

+18

10/5-7  Survey USA

DioGuardi 35

Gillibrand 54

+19

10/1-5  Quinnipiac

DioGuardi 34

Gillibrand 55

+21

10/1-5  CNN/Time

DioGuardi 41

Gillibrand 55

+14

10/1-3  PPP

DioGuardi 40

Gillibrand 50

+10

9/19-22  Marist

DioGuardi 41

Gillibrand 52

+11

 North Carolina

*(R) Richard Burr vs. (D) Elaine Marshall

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Burr 48.5

Marshall 36.2

+12.3

GOP Hold

10/22-25  Survey USA

Burr 53

Marshall 38

+15

10/18-20  Civitas

Burr 44

Marshall 34

+10

10/15-17  PPP

Burr 48

Marshall 40

+8

10/12  Rasmussen

Burr 52

Marshall 38

+14

9/25-30 High Point University

Burr 45

Marshall 31

+14

9/23-26  PPP

Burr 49

Marshall 36

+13

North Dakota – *(D) Open Seat

(Byron Dorgan Retiring) — (D) Tracey Potter vs. (R) Gov. John Hoeven

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Hoeven 70.0

Potter 25.0

+45.0

GOP Pickup

10/21  Rasmussen

Hoeven 72

Potter 25

+47

9/20-21  Rasmussen

Hoeven 68

Potter 25

+43

Ohio -*(R) Open Seat

(Voinovich Retiring) —-(R) Rob Portman vs. (D) Lee Fisher

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Portman 53.5

Fisher 37.2

+16.3

GOP Hold

10/28-30  PPP

Portman 57

Fisher 39

+18

10/25-30  Quinnipiac

Portman 56

Fisher 37

+19

10/26  Rasmussen

Portman 57

Fisher 33

+24

10/20-29  Columbus Dispatch

Portman 56

Fisher 40

+16

10/22-26  Survey USA

Portman 52

Fisher 37

+15

10/18-24  Quinnipiac

Portman 53

Fisher 36

+17

10/15-19  CNN/Time

Portman 55

Fisher 40

+15

10/14-18  Ohio Poll / Univ. of Cincinnati

Portman 58

Fisher 39

+19

10/12-17  Quinnipiac

Portman 55

Fisher 34

+21

10/8-13  Ohio Poll/Univ. of Cincinnati

Portman 58

Fisher 36

+22

10/11  Rasmussen

Portman 57

Fisher 34

+23

10/9  Fox News/POR

Portman 52

Fisher 35

+17

10/8  Angus-Reid

Portman 52

Fisher 43

+9

10/4-6  Suffolk

Portman 47

Fisher 37

+10

9/29-10/3  Quinnipiac

Portman 55

Fisher 36

+19

10/2 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Portman 53

Fisher 37

+16

9/27  Rasmussen

Portman 51

Fisher 42

+9

9/23-27 CBS News/NYT

Portman 45

Fisher 34

+11

9/23-25  Reuters/Ipsos

Portman 50

Fisher 37

+13

9/25 Fox News/ POR-Rasmussen

Portman 50

Fisher 37

+13

Oklahoma

*(R) Tom Coburn vs. (D) Jim Rogers

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

9/23  Rasmussen

Coburn 68

Rogers 26

+42

GOP Hold

Oregon

*(D) Ron Wyden vs. (R) Jim Huffman

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Huffman 36.8

Wyden 54.8

+18.0

Dem Hold

10/23-28  Survey USA

Huffman 32

Wyden 57

+25

10/25  Rasmussen

Huffman 42

Wyden 53

+11

10/16-17 Daily Kos/PPP

Huffman 40

Wyden 56

+16

10/12-14  Survey USA

Huffman 34

Wyden 56

+22

10/10  Rasmussen

Huffman 36

Wyden 52

+16

Pennsylvania

*(D) Joe Sestak Vs. (R) Pat Toomey

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Toomey 47.1

Sestak 41.9

+5.2

GOP Pickup

2-Week AVERAGE

Toomey 48.1

Sestak 44.0

+4.1

10/30-31  PPP

Toomey 51

Sestak 46

+5

**10/28-31  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 48

Sestak 44

+4

10/27-30  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 45

Sestak 43

+2

10/26-29  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 45

Sestak 43

+2

10/28  Rasmussen

Toomey 50

Sestak 46

+4

10/26-28  McClatchy/Marist

Toomey 52

Sestak 45

+7

10/25-28  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 47

Sestak 42

+5

10/25-30 Quinnipiac

Toomey 50

Sestak 45

+5

10/24-27  Susquehanna

Toomey 46

Sestak 44

+2

10/24-27  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 48

Sestak 40

+8

10/23-26 Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 46

Sestak 41

+5

10/20-26  CNN/Time

Toomey 49

Sestak 45

+4

10/18-24  Franklin & Marshall

Toomey 43

Sestak 36

+7

10/22-25 Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 48

Sestak 40

+8

10/22-24 Reuters/Ipsos

Toomey 46

Sestak 46

Tie

10/21-24  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 47

Sestak 42

+5

10/20-23  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 46

Sestak 43

+3

10/19-22 Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 45

Sestak 42

+3

10/21  Rasmussen

Toomey 48

Sestak 44

+4

10/18-21  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 43

Sestak 43

Tie

10/17-20  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 43

Sestak 43

Tie

10/17-18  PPP

Toomey 45

Sestak 46

+1

10/13-17  Quinnipiac

Toomey 48

Sestak 46

+2

10/16-19  Morning Call Tracking

Toomey 41

Sestak 44

+3

10/12  Rasmussen

Toomey 49

Sestak 39

+10

9/28-10/4 Morning Call

Toomey 45

Sestak 38

+7

9/29  Rasmussen

Toomey 49

Sestak 40

+9

9/26-28 McClatchy/Marist

Toomey 51

Sestak 42

+9

9/24-27  Suffolk Univ.

Toomey 45

Sestak 40

+5

9/23-26 Susquehanna

Toomey 45

Sestak 42

+3

9/20-26  Franklin & Marshall

Toomey 38

Sestak 29

+9

9/18-23 Morning Call

Toomey 46

Sestak 39

+7

South Carolina

*(R) Jim DeMint vs. (D) Alvin Greene

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

10/19  Rasmussen

DeMint 58

Greene 21

+37

GOP Hold

10/5-10  Winthrop

DeMint 58

Greene 11

+47

9/22  Rasmussen

DeMint 64

Greene 21

+43

South Dakota

*(R) John Thune vs. No Major Party Opposition

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

 

 

 

 

GOP Hold

Utah

*(R) Mike Lee vs. (D) Sam Granato

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

10/25-28  Deseret News

Lee 57

Granato 30

+27

GOP Hold

10/25-27  Mason-Dixon

Lee 48

Granato 32

+16

10/11-14  Deseret News

Lee 53

Granato 31

+22

10/13  Rasmussen

Lee 61

Granato 28

+33

Vermont

*(D) Patrick Leahy vs. (R) Len Britton

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

10/11-13  VPR/Mason-Dixon

Britton 27

Leahy 62

+35

Dem Hold

9/13  Rasmussen

Britton 32

Leahy 62

+30

Washington

*(D) Patty Murray vs. (R) Dino Rossi

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Rossi 46.4

Murray 48.4

+2.0

GOP Gain

2-Week AVERAGE

Rossi 48.0

Murray 48.0

Tie

10/29-31  PPP

Rossi 50

Murray 48

+2

10/30 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Rossi 47

Murray 49

+2

10/26-28  McClatchy/Marist

Rossi 48

Murray 49

+1

10/27  Rasmussen

Rossi 48

Murray 47

+1

10/24-27  Survey USA

Rossi 47

Murray 47

Tie

10/18-28  The Washington Poll

Rossi 45

Murray 51

+6

10/17  Rasmussen

Rossi 46

Murray 49

+3

10/14-17 McClatchy/Marist

Rossi 47

Murray 48

+1

10/14-16  PPP

Rossi 47

Murray 49

+2

10/5-14  The Washington Poll

Rossi 42

Murray 50

+8

10/10-12  Survey USA

Rossi 47

Murray 50

+3

10/8-12  CNN/Time

Rossi 43

Murray 51

+8

10/7-11  Elway Poll

Rossi 40

Murray 55

+15

10/9  Fox News/POR

Rossi 47

Murray 46

+1

10/6  Rasmussen

Rossi 49

Murray 46

+3

9/28  Rasmussen

Rossi 48

Murray 47

+1

9/26-27 AAF/Fabrizio

Rossi 48

Murray 42

+6

9/25 Fox News/ POR-Rasmussen

Rossi 47

Murray 48

+1

West Virginia (Special Election to Fill Robert Byrd Seat)

 

*(D) Joe Manchin vs. (R) John Raese

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Raese 46.5

Manchin 46.9

+0.4

Dem Hold

2-Week AVERAGE

Raese 46.0

Manchin 49.3

+3.3

10/31  Rasmussen

Raese 46

Manchin 50

+4

10/31  Quinnipiac

Raese 46

Manchin 50

+4

10/30-31  PPP

Raese 46

Manchin 51

+5

10/26  Rasmussen

Raese 46

Manchin 49

+3

10/23-24  PPP

Raese 44

Manchin 50

+6

10/23  Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Raese 48

Manchin 46

+2

10/17  Rasmussen

Raese 50

Manchin 43

+7

10/16  Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Raese 48

Manchin 45

+3

10/12  Rasmussen

Raese 49

Manchin 46

+3

10/11-12 Marshall Univ./Orion Strategies

Raese 39

Manchin 49

+10

10/8-12  CNN/Time

Raese 44

Manchin 44

Tie

10/9-10  PPP

Raese 45

Manchin 48

+3

10/5  Rasmussen

Raese 50

Manchin 44

+6

10/2 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Raese 48

Manchin 43

+5

9/27  Rasmussen

Raese 48

Manchin 46

+2

Wisconsin

*(D) Russ Feingold vs. (R)  Ron Johnson

Poll

Republican

Democrat

Margin

Projection

AVERAGE

Johnson 51.7

Feingold 44.3

+7.5

GOP Pickup

2-Week AVERAGE

Johnson 52.7

Feingold 45.0

+7.7

10/26-28  McClatchy/Marist

Johnson 52

Feingold 45

+7

10/26-28  PPP

Johnson 53

Feingold 44

+9

10/25  Rasmussen

Johnson 53

Feingold 46

+7

10/12-15  WPR/St. Norbert

Johnson 49

Feingold 47

+2

10/8-12  CNN/Time

Johnson 52

Feingold 44

+8

10/11  Rasmussen

Johnson 52

Feingold 45

+7

10/8-11  Reuters/Ipsos

Johnson 51

Feingold 44

+7

9/29-10/4  “We the People” / VCR

Johnson 49

Feingold 41

+8

9/29  Rasmussen

Johnson 54

Feingold 42

+12

9/26-28 McClatchy/Marist

Johnson 52

Feingold 45

+7

9/25 Fox News/POR-Rasmussen

Johnson 52

Feingold 44

+8

*= Incumbent Candidate

 

** = For “Tracking Polls,” only the most recent one is used for figuring the average on a race.

 

NOTE: Because both Independents (Sanders, Lieberman) caucus with the Democrats, it will take a net GOP Pickup of 10 Seats for the Republicans to take control of the U.S. Senate

 

NOTE:  Please note that polls older than 40 days have been listed if there are either no newer polls or only one newer poll for that state.