Larry Sabato Says Unpredictable “Coattail Effect” Could Put GOP over the Top in U.S. Senate – Video 10/29/10

Here is a great interview with University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato on Fox Business Network, where he discussed the upcoming Midterm Elections. Sabato shared his final “Crystal Ball” predictions that the GOP will retake control of the House with a 55-seat net gain, and will gain 8-seats in the Senate – two short of what is needed for control there.

But Sabato also said he believes the final margin in the House will likely be larger than the 55-seats he has predicted, and holds open the possibility the Republicans could take control of the U.S. Senate as well. He pointed out that the last six times the House has changed party control, the Senate has flipped as well. Sabato explained that this often happens because of what he called the “Coattail Effect”:

“I have to rely on the data. The data do not say that (a GOP takeover of the Senate) right now – they do not predict a Republican takeover. But see, what happens on Election Day is you have this factor called “Coattail” that cannot be predicted in advance. And so sometimes, people had intended to vote for a Democrat for Senate, but their adrenalin is pumping – they are going in there to send a message to Obama – they are voting for the Republican candidate for House, and then they say “What the heck – I’m going to vote Republican for these other offices too.” That’s what happens with “Coattail.”"

That could make the difference in places like West Virginia, Washington – and even in Connecticut and Delaware. It will be interesting to see if there is a large “Coattail Effect” on November 2.