Here is audio of a voicemail released by the Joe Miller Campaign in
Alaska. Big Government.com says the voicemail – which was inadvertently left of the cell phone of a Miller Campaign spokesman – has reporters from the CBS affiliate in Anchorage plotting ways to discredit GOP candidate Joe Miller. The transcript of what was said is included in the video above.
Miller is in a tight race with sore loser Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who decided to mount a write-in bid after she lost the GOP Primary to Miller, and with Democrat nominee Scott McAdams.
President Obama is interrupted by a group of liberal hecklers while speaking at a rally for Richard Blumenthal. He finally responds to the hecklers at about
2:19 into the video, and is visibly upset.
We also added four more races to our list of competitive races, bringing the total number to 152, of which 128 races are currently seats held by Democrats.
In addition, we still have 37 races rated as a “Tossup,” meaning there is still upside potential for Republicans. Prior to Tuesday, we will make a final projection on all of the competitive races.
Here are the race rating changes since the last update:
MN8 = “Dem Hold” to “Tossup”
ME1 = “Tossup” to “GOP Gain”
ME2 = Added to List as a “Tossup”
CA51 = Added to List as a “Tossup”
NC4 = Added to List as a “Tossup”
MI9 = “Tossup” to “GOP Gain”
MI7 = “GOP Gain” to “Tossup”
MI5 = Added to List as a “Tossup”
2010 Competitive U.S. House
Races – Projections
Updated: 10/30/10 – 12:30 PM
CT
Current
179
256
GOP
Projected
244
191
+65
District
Republican
Democrat
Projection
AK – AL
*Don Young
Harry Crawford Jr.
GOP Hold
AL – 2
Martha Roby
*Bobby Bright
GOP Gain
AL – 5 (incumbent Griffith defeated in
primary)
*Mo Brooks
Steve Raby
GOP Hold
AZ – 1
Paul Gosar
*Ann Kirkpatrick
GOP Gain
AZ – 3 (Open)
*Ben Quayle
Jon Hulburd
GOP Hold
AZ – 5
Dave Schweikert
*Harry Mitchell
GOP Gain
AZ – 7
Ruth McClung
*Raul Grijalva
Tossup
AZ – 8
Jesse Kelly
*Gabrielle Giffords
GOP Gain
AR – 1 (Open)
Rick Crawford
*Chad Causey
GOP Gain
AR – 2 (Open)
Tim Griffin
*Joyce Elliot
GOP Gain
AR – 4
Beth Anne Rankin
*Mike Ross
Dem Hold
CA – 3
*Dan Lungren
Amerish Bera
GOP Hold
CA – 11
David Harmer
*Jerry McNerney
GOP Gain
CA – 18
Mike Berryhill
*Dennis Cardoza
Tossup
CA – 20
Andy Vidak
*Jim Costa
GOP Gain
CA – 44
*Ken Calvert
Bill Hedrick
GOP Hold
CA – 45
*Mary Bono Mack
Steve Pougnet
GOP Hold
CA – 47
Van Tran
*Loretta Sanchez
Tossup
CA – 50
*Brian Bilbray
Francine Busby
GOP Hold
CA – 51
“Gunny” Nick Popaditch
*Bob Filner
Tossup
CO – 3
Scott Tipton
*John Salazar
GOP Gain
CO – 4
Cory Gardner
*Betsy Markey
GOP Gain
CO – 7
Ryan Frazier
*Ed Perlmutter
Tossup
CT – 1
Ann Brickley
*John Larson
Dem Hold
CT – 2
Janet Peckinpaugh
*Joe Courtney
Dem Hold
CT – 4
Dan Debicella
*Jim Himes
GOP Gain
CT – 5
Sam Caligiuri
*Chris Murphy
GOP Gain
DE – AL (Open)
*Glen Urquhart
John Carney Jr.
Dem Gain
FL – 2
Steve Southerland
*Allen Boyd
GOP Gain
FL – 8
Dan Webster
*Alan Grayson
GOP Gain
FL – 12 (Open)
*Dennis Ross
Lori Edwards
GOP Hold
FL – 13
*Vern Buchanan
James Golden
GOP Hold
FL – 16
*Tom Rooney
Jim Horn
GOP Hold
FL – 22
Allen West
*Ron Klein
GOP Gain
FL – 24
Sandy Adams
*Susan Kosmas
GOP Gain
FL – 25 (Open)
*David Rivera
Joe Garcia
GOP Hold
GA – 2
Mike Keown
*Sanford Bishop
GOP Gain
GA – 8
Austin Scott
*Jim Marshall
GOP Gain
GA – 12
Raymond McKinney
*John Barrow
Tossup
HI – 1
*Charles Djou
Colleen
Hanabusa
Dem Gain
ID – 1
Raul Labrador
*Walter Minnick
Tossup
IL – 8
Joe Walsh
*Melissa Bean
Tossup
IL – 10 (Open)
*Robert Dold
Daniel Seals
Tossup
IL – 11
Adam Kinzinger
*Debbie Halvorson
GOP Gain
IL – 14
Randy Hultgren
*Bill Foster
GOP Gain
IL – 17
Bobby Schilling
*Phil Hare
GOP Gain
IN – 2
Jackie Walorski
*Joe Donnelly
Tossup
IN – 8 (Open – Ellsworth seat)
Dr. Larry Bucshon
*Trent Van Haaften
GOP Gain
IN – 9
Todd Young
*Baron Hill
GOP Gain
IA – 1
Ben Lange
*Bruce Braley
Tossup
IA – 2
M. Miller-Meeks
*David Loebsack
Dem Hold
IA – 3
Brad Zaun
*Leonard Boswell
Tossup
KS – 3 (Open)
Kevin Yoder
*Stephene Moore
GOP Gain
KS – 4 (Open)
*Mike Pompeo
Raj Goyle
GOP Hold
KY – 3
Todd Lally
*John Yarmuth
Tossup
KY – 6
Andy Barr
*Ben Chandler
Tossup
LA – 2
*Joseph Cao
Cedric Richmond
Dem Gain
LA – 3 (Open)
Jeff Landry
*Ravi Sangisetty
GOP Gain
ME – 1
Dean Scontras
*Chellie Pingree
GOP Gain
ME – 2
Jason Levesque
*Mike Michaud
Tossup
MD – 1
Andy Harris
*Frank Kratovil, Jr.
GOP Gain
MA – 4
Sean Bielat
*Barney Frank
Dem Hold
MA – 5
Jon Golnik
*Niki Tsongas
Dem Hold
MA – 6
Bill Hudak
*John Tierney
Dem Hold
MA – 10 (Open – Delahunt retiring)
Jeff Perry
*William Keating
Tossup
MI – 1 (Open, Stupak Retiring)
Dr. Daniel Benishek
*Gary McDowell
GOP Gain
MI – 5
John Kupiec
*Dale Kildee
Tossup
MI – 7
Tim Walberg
*Mark Shauer
Tossup
MI – 9
Andrew Raczkowski
*Gary Peters
GOP Gain
MI – 15
Rob Steele
*John Dingell
Dem Hold
MN – 1
Randy Demmer
*Tim Walz
Dem Hold
MN – 6
*Michele Bachmann
Tarryl Clark
GOP Hold
MN – 8
Chip Cravaack
*Jim Oberstar
Tossup
MS – 1
Alan Nunnelee
*Travis Childers
GOP Gain
MS – 4
Steven Palazzo
*Gene Taylor
GOP Gain
MO – 3
Ed Martin
*Russ Carnahan
Dem Hold
MO – 4
Vicky Hartzler
*Ike Skelton
Tossup
MO – 5
Jacob Turk
*Emanuel Cleaver
Dem Hold
ND – AL
Rick Berg
*Earl Pomeroy
GOP Gain
NE – 2
*Lee Terry
Tom White
GOP Hold
NV – 3
Dr. Joseph Heck
*Dina Titus
GOP Gain
NH – 1
Frank Guinta
*Carol Shea-Porter
GOP Gain
NH – 2 (Open)
Charles Bass
*Ann Kuster
GOP Gain
NJ – 3
John Runyan
*John Adler
GOP Gain
NJ – 6
Anna Little
*Frank Pallone
Tossup
NJ – 12
Scott Sipprelle
*Rush Holt
Dem Hold
NM – 1
Jon Barela
*Martin Heinrich
Tossup
NM – 2
Steve Pearce
*Harry Teague
GOP Gain
NM – 3
Tom Mullins
*Ben Ray Lujan
Dem Hold
NY – 1
Randy Altschuler
*Tim Bishop
Tossup
NY – 4
Fran Becker
*Carolyn McCarthy
Tossup
NY – 13
Mike Grimm
*Mike McMahon
Tossup
NY – 19
Nan Hayworth
*John Hall
GOP Gain
NY – 20
Chris Gibson
*Scott Murphy
GOP Gain
NY – 22
George Phillips
*Maurice Hinchey
Dem Hold
NY – 23
Matthew Doheny
(Doug Hoffman on ballot as Conservative
Party nominee, but campaign suspended; calls on supporters to vote for
Doheny)
*Bill Owens
GOP Gain
NY – 24
Richard Hanna
*Michael Arcuri
Tossup
NY – 25
Ann Marie Buerkle
*Dan Maffei
Tossup
NY – 27
Leonard Roberto
*Brian Higgins
Dem Hold
NY – 29 (Open – Eric Massa resigned)
Thomas Reed
*Matthew Zeller
GOP Gain
NC – 2
Renee Elmers
*Bob Etheridge
GOP Gain
NC – 4
Dr. William (B.J.) Lawson
*David Price
Tossup
NC – 7
Ilario Pantano
*Mike McIntyre
Tossup
NC – 8
Harold Johnson
*Larry Kissell
GOP Gain
NC – 11
Jeff Miller
*Heath Shuler
Tossup
OH – 1
Steve Chabot
*Steve Driehaus
GOP Gain
OH – 2
*Jean Schmidt
Surya Yalamanchili
GOP Hold
OH – 6
Bill Johnson
*Charlie Wilson
GOP Gain
OH – 12
*Patrick Tiberi
Paula Brooks
GOP Hold
OH – 13
Thomas Ganley
*Betty Sue Sutton
Dem Hold
OH – 15
Steve Stivers
*Mary Jo Kilroy
GOP Gain
OH – 16
Jim Renacci
*John Boccieri
GOP Gain
OH – 18
Bob Gibbs
*Zack Space
GOP Gain
OK – 2
Charles Thompson
*Dan Boren
Dem Hold
OR – 1
Rob Cornilles
*David Wu
Dem Hold
OR – 4
Art Robinson
*Pete DeFazio
Dem Hold
OR – 5
Scott Bruun
*Kurt Schrader
GOP Gain
PA – 3
Mike Kelly
*Kathy Dahlkemper
GOP Gain
PA – 4
Keith Rothfus
*Jason Altmire
Dem Hold
PA – 6
*Jim Gerlach
Manan Trivedi
GOP Hold
PA – 7 (Open – Sestak Senate)
Patrick Meehan
*Bryan Lentz
GOP Gain
PA – 8
Mike Fitzpatrick
*Patrick Murphy
GOP Gain
PA – 10
Tom Marino
*Chris Carney
GOP Gain
PA – 11
Lou Barletta
*Paul Kanjorski
GOP Gain
PA – 12 (Special – Murtha Death)
Tim Burns
*Mark Critz
GOP Gain
PA – 15
*Charlie Dent
John Callahan
GOP Hold
PA – 17
David Argall
*Tim Holden
Dem Hold
RI – 1 (Patrick Kennedy retiring)
John Loughlin, II
*David Cicilline
Tossup
SC – 1 (Open)
*Tim Scott
Ben Frasier
GOP Hold
SC – 5
Mick Mulvaney
*John Spratt
GOP Gain
SD – AL
Kristi Noem
*S. Herseth-Sandlin
GOP Gain
TN – 4
Dr. Scott DesJarlais
*Lincoln Davis
GOP Gain
TN – 5
David Hall
*Jim Cooper
Dem Hold
TN – 6 (Open)
Diane Black
*Brett Carter
GOP Gain
TN – 8 (Open)
Stephen Fincher
*Roy Herron
GOP Gain
TX – 17
Bill Flores
*Chet Edwards
GOP Gain
TX – 23
Francisco “Quico” Canseco
*Ciro Rodriguez
GOP Gain
TX – 27
Blake Farenthold
*Solomon Ortiz
Tossup
VA – 2
Scott Rigell
*Glenn Nye
GOP Gain
VA – 5
Robert Hurt
*Tom Perriello
GOP Gain
VA – 9
Morgan Griffith
*Rick Boucher
Tossup
VA – 11
Keith Fimian
*Gerald Connolly
Tossup
WA – 2
John Koster
*Rick Larsen
Tossup
WA – 3 (Open)
Jaime Herrera
*Denny Heck
GOP Gain
WA – 6
Doug Cloud
*Norm Dicks
Dem Hold
WA – 8
*Dave Reichert
Suzan DelBene
GOP Hold
WA – 9
Dick Muri
*Adam Smith
Tossup
WV – 1 (Dem inc. district – Inc.
Mollohan defeted)
In our latest U.S. Senate Polls & Projections update, we have the GOP headed for an 8-seat net gain in the upcoming Midterm Elections. That’s two seats short of what is needed for them to regain control of the U.S. Senate.
There seems to be movement toward the GOP across the country over the last couple of days, after there had been some movement in the Democrats’ direction in the middle of October. The additional two seats for Republicans will have to come from Washington, West Virginia, California, Connecticut, or Delaware. Of those five, Washington and West Virginia are the best opportunities for the GOP.
Dino Rossi is very close in Washington, and there is movement in his favor over the last few days. West Virginia is still showing a very slight advantage for Republican John Raese in our average of polls, but we have it rated a Democrat Hold because the last couple of polls (including Rasmussen) has shown Democrat Gov. Joe Manchin ahead there. If there are any further polls before Election Day showing movement back toward Raese, it could still go for the GOP.
Some polling has shown Fiorina edging closer in California, and McMahon edging closer in Connecticut. Even Christine O’Donnell is back within 10-points in a poll yesterday from Delaware – with her actually leading among Independents.
The great unknown is the turnout, and the composition of that turnout. If there is massive turnout among Republicans (I think there will be) and Independents who have simmered with anger for two years over the radical Democrat agenda, then the polls showing Democrats leading in some states could be flipped on their head. All of the polling assumes a certain turnout model, and are weighted based on those models. This could be an election like we have never seen in our lifetimes. That makes the matter of projecting winners very difficult!
Here is an excellent video put forward by former Republican Sen. Rick Santorum that urges Conservative voters to “finish strong” in this year’s Midterm Elections. Santorum traces how Republicans “lost our way,” and paid for it big time in the 2006 and 2008 Elections. But, he also reviewed how Democrats – expecting to enjoy a 40-year Majority in Congress – refused to listen to the will of the American People on issue after issue, instead arrogantly deciding to ram through the most massive spending spree “the world has ever seen.”
This is very well done. Santorum, by the way, is seriously considering making a run for President in 2012.
Here is a video report from CNBC which gives a good synopsis on the big story of today – that two packages originating from Yemen and bound for Chicago-area synagogue actually contained explosive devices and were intercepted in Great Britain and Dubai. The packages were on cargo planes, but were discovered before ever reaching the United States. Al-Qaeda Arabian Peninsula is believed to be behind the attempted attacks.
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