Previewing Tonight’s GOP Presidential Debate at the Reagan Presidential Library – 9/7/11

Tonight’s GOP Presidential Debate at the Reagan Presidential Library will be an important moment for the eight candidates taking part. It will be the first debate Texas Gov. Rick Perry has been a part of, and people will be watching him closely to see how he does on the national stage with his challengers.

In my view, Perry needs to be himself, looking relaxed and like he belongs in the national spotlight. He will undoubtedly be attacked by his challengers in view of the fact he has zoomed to the top of the polls, now leading in the 40-day average of polls by a full 10-points over Mitt Romney. He needs to absorb the attacks and respond with strength but with a sense of control. My guess is he will be ready to give as good as he gets. Look for Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann, along with Rick Santorum to be the three who will really come after Perry. He can look very Presidential if he weathers the attacks and deflects them with humor and concise answers.

AP Photos

Michele Bachmann has to go on the attack. She is floundering in the polls, and in her campaign. Perry has really decimated her poll numbers. The danger for her is to sound too shrill and to come off as desperate. The same is true for Rick Santorum, who needs to do something to get the spotlight, but can’t come off as desperate.

Ron Paul will likely go after Perry, but is incredibly vulnerable for his disavowal of Ronald Reagan in 1987 and his resignation from the GOP at that time. His “Looney Tunes” Foreign Policy gives an endless supply of fodder for Perry or other candidates to use Paul as a foil to come across as tough – particularly Paul’s statements about the 9/11 attacks that the U.S. is partially to blame because of the presence of U.S. Troops on bases around the world.

Mitt Romney has tried to appear above the fray to this point, but it is unclear what his strategy will be tonight, now that he is trailing Perry. He is very vulnerable himself if he chooses to go on the attack, so my guess is he won’t, instead continuing his strategy in hopes Perry will simply implode during this debate.

The wildcard here are the moderators from NBC and Politico. Will they be evenhanded in their questioning, or will they do all they can to help Barack Obama by focusing their hardest questions on the candidates most dangerous to The One. We’ll see, but my guess is the latter.

The debate will be televised tonight on MSNBC from 7:00-8:30 PM CT. We’ll get video of the debate up late this evening.

What do you think will happen tonight?