Opinion: Rick Perry Can Recover, and Oct. 11 GOP Debate in New Hampshire is the Key

GOP Strategist Matthew Dowd has written an opinion piece at The Note on Gov. Rick Perry and his chances going forward. He believes Perry can still recover from this disastrous weekend past, but he has to do it quickly – and the next GOP Debate on October 11 in New Hampshire will be the key:

THE NOTE – ABC NEWS (Matthew Dowd): As Texas Gov. Rick Perry entered the presidential race a bit more than a month ago, I was asked numerous times about what kind of candidate he would be and what would happen in the race. I have written a few columns on this and said what I thought might happen. Let’s review.

Perry is a very good retail politician and very attuned to the emotional arc of the Republican electorate. However, he has never been under the big spotlight of a national campaign, and he has never had to recover from a big stumble or loss in his political career — which would have been the real test of his political trajectory.

I told many folks that if Perry got through mid-October without taking on water or stumbling badly, he would move methodically toward the Republican nomination. Well, it isn’t mid-October yet and the Texan has taken on more water than there has been rain in the state this year, and he has stumbled a good bit — mainly in the debates.

Can he recover? Yes, but he needs to do so quickly and he needs to come prepared and ready to win the debate on Oct. 11 at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire. If he fares badly there his fundraising will begin to dry up, he will begin to lose significant support in national polls and he will likely be on a death spiral. Yes, the pressure is on, and he better be ready to rumble, and not stumble. . . . Read More

I would be doubtful about Perry being able to use the October 11 debate as a positive. The same dynamics will be there – and even worse for him – as the other candidates sense an opportunity to finish him off. He will be attacked on the same issues by the same people, with the addition of questions regarding his recent problems. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney is sitting back and enjoying it all – relatively left alone in terms of attacks, the real beneficiary of Perry’s demise.