To Knock Out Mitt Romney, Someone Needs to Do It by Super Tuesday

While the GOP Presidential Primary Calendar is still in flux when it comes to early-voting states, it appears that a long nomination battle will definitely favor Gov. Mitt Romney. For someone to knock Romney out, they will have to do it by Super Tuesday on March 6. If Perry, Cain or someone else is not clearly ahead by then, the primary calendar is squarely on Romney’s side:

POLITICO: . . . One result of the proportional allocation system Republicans installed in August 2010 is this: the candidates will divide the delegates out of the early primary states, which could leave the two frontrunners—Romney and Perry—almost even.

Perry is favored in Iowa, South Carolina and the now-likely Feb. 7 Missouri primary, while Romney has strong support in New Hampshire and Nevada, plus Michigan on Feb. 28. Other crucial early states, like Florida and Arizona, could go either way.

On March 6, a smaller-than-usual Super Tuesday – only about 10 states rather than the 24 in 2008 – is centered in Perry country: Texas and handful of other Southern states.

After the four traditional early states, “it becomes a real game of electoral math,” said Phil Musser, a Republican consultant unaffiliated in the 2012 race.

“I suspect that the Romney people are the only ones to really, truly focus on this map with any seriousness,” he said.

After Super Tuesday and a few other smaller Southern primaries in March, the calendar almost entirely favors Romney – March 20 is Illinois, and April 24 is slated for a slew of Northeastern states that will almost all go to Romney. (As a Northeastern governor, the same math would likely apply to Christie).

The changes to the broader primary structure were made primarily to please GOP officials from around the country, all of whom would like their states to participate in the primary process. A shift toward dividing delegates proportionally in each state makes it hard for a frontrunner to amass big lead—and thus effectively claim the nomination before most states have voted.

But the Romney camp also has had a hand in crafting the calendar. Aides like longtime RNC member Ron Kaufman were on hand to keep an eye on the process, and the former Massachusetts governor’s allies continue to try to tweak the calendar around its edges, and to move up Romney-friendly states. . . . Read More