Assessing Winners and Losers from the CNN GOP Presidential Debate – 11/22/11

Tonight’s GOP Presidential Debate hosted by CNN, the American Enterprise Institute, and the Heritage Foundation focused on Foreign Policy and National Security issues. But it did touch on some domestic issues as well, and the headline will come from the domestic side.

Newt Gingrich, now that he is at the top of the polls, demonstrated that he will say what he thinks whether it is politically helpful to him or not. He was asked about what he would do to deal with the millions of illegals already in the United States. He made it clear that border enforcement is of primary importance, but he also said those already here should be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. If there are people who have been here “for 25 years” and have been “paying taxes,” Gingrich did not believe they should be “expelled,” but should be given some kind of “legal status,” but not automatic citizenship.

Immediately, Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney sought to take advantage of what Gingrich said, calling it amnesty and a “magnet” for more illegals to come to the U.S. Gingrich repeated his position, and said he is ready to “take the heat” for saying that the GOP – “the party of the family” – should not be in the business of breaking up families when it is not necessary.

On Foreign Policy questions, many of them dealt with how to stop Iran from obtaining Nuclear Weapons, and whether we should stand with Israel in the event military action is needed. The candidates were almost uniformly on the same page in the need to stop Iran, with the exception of Ron Paul, who does not believe military action should be used to stop Iran. He said we should not join Israel in any military action, but should “get out of their way.” He did say that Israel would have to “suffer the consequences” of whatever they decide to do.

I thought once again Newt Gingrich was the most crisp and effective in the answers he gave. He always seems ready to give a very direct and to the point answer, showing he is outstanding in thinking on his feet. He may have hurt himself with his answer on what to do with illegals, though he seemed to know his answer would anger many. He said he was “ready to take the heat” for it.

Mitt Romney was really good again. He was quick with answers and spoke with authority. He is very Presidential, even if you don’t like his track record on issues. He moved swiftly to take advantage of what Gingrich said on immigration, which you know he hopes will shore up his standing with conservatives in the party.

Herman Cain had what I would call an uneven night. He had some strong answers, and then at other times, he seemed to be struggling to come up with something substantive to say. Once again, he showed that Foreign Policy is not his strong suit. Rick Perry had a good night, having one of his best performances yet. He was strong in his stance that we should stop giving aid to nations that don’t like us and that work against our interests – with Pakistan being an example. He sparred with Michele Bachmann on this issue, with Bachmann winding up in the position of defending Pakistan and giving aid to them.

Coming out of this debate, I would expect Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney to remain at the top of the field. Romney very well may move up slightly with Gingrich cooling off as he will undoubtedly be attacked relentlessly now for his immigration statement. Romney seems to always be careful not to let himself say anything that opens himself up for that kind of relentless attack. I think Herman Cain will move down to around the 10% support level and probably level off there. Ron Paul will continue to pull his 8%-12% faithful support. Rick Perry is at around the 8-10% level right now, and I would expect to see him move back up some. I still think he has a shot to make a run at the top-tier again, particularly if Gingrich begins to lose some steam.

What’s your take on tonight’s debate?