Assessing Winners and Losers from the ABC News GOP Presidential Debate in Iowa – 12/10/11

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The ABC News GOP Presidential Debate in Iowa tonight has ended, and it was a shootout in many respects. As expected, Newt Gingrich – the new GOP frontrunner – was the focus of questions and attacks.

This was a debate that I believe found five of the six candidates actually helping themselves – all but Mitt Romney. During the debate, there were two key places where Romney tried to attack Newt Gingrich, and wound up getting run over. Early on, he took the opportunity to call Gingrich a “career politician,” saying by contrast, he had spent his life in the private sector. But when Gingrich responded, he said bluntly that Romney would have been a career politician too if he had not lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994! Exactly!

Later, Romney tried to cast Gingrich as too extreme based on Gingrich saying the idea of a “Palestinian” people is “invented.” Romney essentially said that while that may be historically true, you just can’t speak the truth on things like that! Gingrich then unloaded with the reminder that Ronald Reagan went against the advice of everyone and told the world that the Soviet Union was an “evil empire,” and later challenged Soviet Leader Gorbachev to “tear down this wall.” Gingrich said Reagan was not afraid to tell the truth because he knew there is power in truth – power to reshape the world. He then said he would be a leader not afraid to tell the truth. I think Gingrich won big in that exchange.

Actually, Rick Perry had his best debate by far! He did very well, making some very strong points, and really connecting with the audience. He even came to Newt Gingrich’s defense on the “Palestinian” issue, saying the problem is not anything said by Newt Gingrich, but the weak, anti-Israel policies of Barack Obama.

Michele Bachmann was on the attack all night, and she may have helped herself slightly, but not enough to make people move her way in any sizable way. Rick Santorum did well too, and I think you will see him move up some in Iowa, but whether it will be enough to get him in the top three there, I don’t know. Santorum is trying to stake out the ground of being the only real “consistent conservative” who can win, citing his record of winning in tough districts – with the exception of his final race in 2006 when he lost his U.S. Senate seat by 18 points in a very tough year for Republicans.

Overall, I think Gingrich comes out of this debate still in the lead. He was attacked repeatedly, but not only survived the attacks, but actually helped himself with his responses to several of them – particularly those of Mitt Romney. I would actually look for Romney to lose some ground, and for Rick Santorum to move up. Ron Paul was strong tonight, and I think he has a real shot at winning the Iowa Caucuses because of his devoted fan base who will turn out for him in droves to attend the caucuses. If the weather is bad on January 3, he has to be the favorite – because his folks will turn out no matter what.