Report: Perry Campaign Internal Polling Shows Mitt Romney “Pulling Away” from the Field in Iowa; Santorum Surging; Paul, Bachmann Falling – 12/29/11

The Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes reports tonight that internal polling from the Rick Perry Campaign shows that Gov. Mitt Romney is “pulling away” from the field of GOP Presidential Candidates just five days ahead of the Iowa Caucuses. Perry’s internal polling also shows Rick Santorum surging, while Ron Paul is fading. Romney’s people are concerned about Michele Bachmann’s falling numbers, believing if she fades to below 10% support, it means more support for Rick Santorum:

THE WEEKLY STANDARD: . . . . . In fact, data from Perry’s internal daily tracking polling shows that the Santorum surge is real and that he has the potential to continue gaining in the days before voters gather for the caucuses next Tuesday.

The polling was described to TWS by a strategist for a rival campaign and confirmed by a source familiar with the numbers. The four important takeaways from Perry’s polling: Mitt Romney is “pulling away” from a group of four second-tier candidates bunched together behind him; Ron Paul’s numbers have dropped steadily in the aftermath of the attention given his troubling newsletters; Santorum’s rise has coincided with the erosion of support for Newt Gingrich; and Michele Bachmann is in danger of becoming a non-factor in the race.

Almost all of this is good news for Mitt Romney, who announced in recent days a busy schedule of Iowa campaigning and whose campaign let it be known that he would remain overnight in Iowa after the caucuses – both indications that the Romney camp is increasingly confident of a win in Iowa next week. And Romney, in an appearance in Iowa on Thursday, said only a win in Iowa would constitute a real victory.

One number Team Romney is watching carefully is Bachmann’s. According to a senior Iowa Republican, Romney’s team is concerned that if her support dips below 8-10 percent of the vote – where she’s been hanging in recent weeks – Santorum could present Romney with a real challenge. And further erosion for Bachmann could happen. . . . Read More