2012 Presidential Election Electoral Vote Map & Projection
Updated 2/22/12 10:40 AM ET
Here is the 2012 Presidential Election Electoral Vote Map (above) and Table (below). We have shaded the states according to our current estimate of how the state is likely to vote in the November 2012 General Election. States that we consider “tossup” states we have shaded in green.
As you can see, President Obama starts out with a significant advantage – largely due to his virtual lock on California and New York. Those two states give him 84 Electoral Votes, nearly one-third of what he needs to win.
Check back often as we keep this map updated frequently with our projection based on current polls, trends, and the all important “gut-feeling.” As we move into the summer and fall of 2012, the projection will increasingly focus on the polls between the two nominees. Until the Republicans have an actual nominee, the Electoral Vote Projection is far more subjective. We are using the poll matchup between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, in most cases, to make our projection right now. Virtually every poll has numbers for a Romney/Obama matchup. Once we know who the GOP Nominee will be, we will shift, if necessary, to those poll numbers. To see the most recent polls for each state, just click on the state name in the table below. We are still in the process of getting all the individual state polling set up.
NOTE: 2/22/12 – We moved Florida to “Tossup” and Virginia to “GOP” based on recent polling data.
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2012 Presidential Election – Electoral College State-by-State Projection |
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Current Projection: Obama 217 – GOP 208 – Tossup 113 (270 Needed to Win) |
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|
State |
Electoral Votes |
2008 Results |
Latest 2012 Obama Poll % |
Current Projection |
|
Alabama |
9 |
McCain +21% |
|
GOP |
|
Alaska |
3 |
McCain +21% |
42% |
GOP |
|
11 |
McCain +8% |
43.5% |
GOP |
|
|
Arkansas |
6 |
McCain +20% |
|
GOP |
|
55 |
Obama +24% |
58% |
Obama |
|
|
9 |
Obama +9% |
39.5% |
Tossup |
|
|
7 |
Obama +22% |
48% |
Obama |
|
|
Delaware |
3 |
Obama +25% |
|
Obama |
|
D.C. |
3 |
Obama +86% |
|
Obama |
|
29 |
Obama +3% |
44.8% |
Tossup |
|
|
16 |
McCain +5% |
42% |
GOP |
|
|
4 |
Obama + 45% |
59% |
Obama |
|
|
Idaho |
4 |
McCain +25% |
|
GOP |
|
Illinois |
20 |
Obama +25% |
|
Obama |
|
Indiana |
11 |
Obama +1% |
|
GOP |
|
6 |
Obama +10% |
44% |
Tossup |
|
|
6 |
McCain +15% |
35% |
GOP |
|
|
8 |
McCain +16% |
40% |
GOP |
|
|
Louisiana |
8 |
McCain +19% |
|
GOP |
|
4 |
Obama +17% |
45% |
Obama |
|
|
Maryland |
10 |
Obama +25% |
|
Obama |
|
11 |
Obama +26% |
57% |
Obama |
|
|
16 |
Obama +16% |
51% |
Obama |
|
|
10 |
Obama +10% |
48% |
Obama |
|
|
6 |
McCain +13% |
36% |
GOP |
|
|
10 |
McCain +0.13% |
42.5% |
GOP |
|
|
3 |
McCain +2% |
40% |
GOP |
|
|
5 |
McCain +15% |
38% |
GOP |
|
|
6 |
Obama +12% |
43.3% |
Tossup |
|
|
4 |
Obama +10% |
43% |
GOP |
|
|
New Jersey |
14 |
Obama +16% |
48% |
Obama |
|
5 |
Obama +15% |
51% |
Obama |
|
|
29 |
Obama +27% |
59% |
Obama |
|
|
15 |
Obama +0.33% |
47% |
Tossup |
|
|
3 |
McCain +9% |
33% |
GOP |
|
|
18 |
Obama +5% |
44.5% |
Tossup |
|
|
Oklahoma |
7 |
McCain +31% |
|
GOP |
|
7 |
Obama +16% |
48% |
Obama |
|
|
20 |
Obama +10% |
45% |
Tossup |
|
|
Rhode Island |
4 |
Obama +28% |
54% |
Obama |
|
9 |
McCain +9% |
42% |
GOP |
|
|
South Dakota |
3 |
McCain +8% |
|
GOP |
|
11 |
McCain +15% |
34% |
GOP |
|
|
38 |
McCain +12% |
39% |
GOP |
|
|
6 |
McCain +28% |
31% |
GOP |
|
|
Vermont |
3 |
Obama +37% |
|
Obama |
|
13 |
Obama +6% |
43% |
GOP |
|
|
12 |
Obama +17% |
49.3% |
Obama |
|
|
5 |
McCain +13% |
34% |
GOP |
|
|
10 |
Obama +14% |
45.5% |
Tossup |
|
|
Wyoming |
3 |
McCain +32% |
|
GOP |
|
State |
Electoral Votes
538 |
2008 Results
Barack Obama – 365 / 53% John McCain – 173 / 46% |
Latest 2012 Obama Poll % |
Projection
GOP = 208 Obama = 217 Tossup = 113 |
