Will Ron Paul End Up the Winner of the Maine Caucuses, After All?

Nate Silver over at the New York Times’ “FiveThirtyEight” Blog discusses the possibility that GOP Rep. Ron Paul might yet be able to win the Maine Caucuses, which the State GOP called for Mitt Romney yesterday:

FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: Ron Paul’s campaign is claiming that it could still win the presidential preference poll in the Maine caucus because of a county that postponed its vote and will hold its caucus next Saturday, Feb. 18.

On Saturday, the Maine Republican Party declared Mitt Romney the winner of the presidential preference vote, which he led by 194 ballots based on the caucuses that have been held so far.

State Republicans said they considered the results of the straw poll final. However, Washington County, in the easternmost part of the state, postponed its caucus after a snowstorm was forecast there. The Washington County G.O.P. Chair, Chris Gardner, said his county would conduct the straw poll at its caucuses and will report the results to the state.

All if this will be moot unless Mr. Paul is able to make up 194 votes in the county.

Based on how the county voted in 2008, that seems unlikely. Just 113 votes total were cast in the county in 2008, and only 8 of those were for Mr. Paul. John McCain, instead, won the plurality. . . . Read More

Though it sounds like the outcome is unlikely to change, Silver goes on to explain how there are enough Republicans and Independents in the outstanding county to change the outcome IF Ron Paul is able to mount a massive get out the vote operation between now and next Saturday, February 18. We’ll see.