History Says Ohio Voting will Mirror the National Presidential Election Vote Totals: 1972 – Present

Wow. This is fascinating. Thanks to Free Republic poster “Perdogg” for compiling this information. If you have wondered what is likely to happen in Ohio, notice how going back to 1972, Ohio has very closely mirrored the final Popular Vote result. As “Perdogg” points out, the Democrat Presidential Candidate somewhat underperforms their National total in every case, with the exception of 2000. Here are the numbers:

2008

National: Obama 52.87 McCain 45.60

Ohio: Obama 51.38 McCain 46.80

2004

National: Bush 50.73 Kerry 48.27

Ohio: Bush 50.81 Kerry 48.71

2000

National: Bush 47.87 Gore 48.27 Nader 2.73

Ohio: Bush 49.97 Gore 48.71 Nader 2.5

1996

National: Clinton 49.23 Dole 40.72 Perot 8.4

Ohio: Clinton 47.38 Dole 41.02 Perot 10.66

1992

National: Clinton 43.01 Bush 37.45 Perot 18.91

Ohio: Clinton 40.18 Bush 38.35 Perot 20.98

1988

National: Bush 53.37 Dukakis 45.65

Ohio: Bush 55.00 Dukakis 44.15

“Since 1988, There is a very close relationship between the overall national vote and the Ohio vote. With the exception of 2004, but not by much, the democrat always underperforms in Ohio relative to the national vote. If Romney is up 2 Nationally, he will probably win Ohio by 3 to 4 points.”

In a comment to “Perdogg’s” Free Republic post, he extends the data on back to 1972 – with the same result. In other words, Ohio is a true bellweather state. Unless this election breaks the pattern clearly seen going back to 1972, Mitt Romney will not win the popular vote nationally and lose in Ohio.