2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Election Races – Polls and Projections

UPDATED 9/20/14 - Added 2 new polls. Moved Colorado to “GOP Takeaway” as GOP Candidate Cory Gardner has led the last three polls out of Colorado. We’ll see if that holds. From this point forward, we will go with a “no tossups” projection, less than two months ahead of the election. . . . (Details in table under each state).

We currently rate seven races as “GOP Takeaway,” and one race as “Independent Takeaway” (Kansas) which would give Republicans a 51-46-3 Majority in the U.S. Senate. The Kansas “Independent,” Greg Orman, has run as a Democrat before and would caucus with the Democrats if he unseats Republican Pat Roberts. We have that race rated as an “Independent Takeaway. Orman got a boost this week as the Kansas Supreme Court ruled Democrat Chad Taylor’s name won’t appear on the November ballot since he withdrew.

Our final projection will come the morning of Election Day after the final polls are added to the table, but before voting begins.

The Democrats currently have a five-seat majority (55-45) when you include the two “Independents” who caucus with them. That means Republicans will have to net gain six seats to retake control of the U.S. Senate (If it is 50-50 with the two Independents voting with the Democrats, it would remain in Democratic control because the Vice-President would cast the tie-breaking vote). There are 36 races, 21 of them seats currently held by Democrats, and 15 by Republicans.

The 36 races (including special elections) are listed in the table below, with our latest projection for each race on the right column of the table. We have started listing polls on races where available. Notice that General Election matchup polls are listed, and also Primary Polls below the same poll if available. Averages are only listed for races already shaped up to be head-to-head between two candidates. As nominees for each party are selected, more averages will appear. Check back often for polling updates!

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2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Races – Polls & Projections
               
Current U.S. Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 45, Independents 2 (Caucus with Dems)        
2014 Seats Contested: 21 Democrat, 15 Republican (One Special Election – OK, Coburn Retiring)        
Current 2014 Senate Projection (No Tossups): Democrats 46, Republicans 51, Independents 3
Totals = 36 Contested Races – GOP Hold 14, Democrat Hold 14, GOP Takeaway 7, Independent Takeaway 1 (former Dem), Dem Takeaway 0
MOST RECENT POLLS ADDED
9/20/14 IA, CO 9/19/14 KS, NH, DE, DE, ID, MA, MA 9/18/14 GA, CO, KY, AK, LA, IA, KS, NH, NC  9/17/14 LA, CO, MI, IA, MI, MI 
9/16/14 NC, NH, NH, KS, KS, AK, AK 9/15/14 NH, NH, NC, NC, NC, NC, NC, GA, MN, MN, NM, NM, IL, IL, HI, HI
 
*Denotes Incumbent Senator              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
               
ALABAMA *(R) Jeff Sessions vs. (D) Unopposed GOP HOLD
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
ALASKA *(D) Mark Begich vs. (R) Dan Sullivan vs. (L) Mark Fish DEM HOLD
       
Poll Poll Date R-Sullivan *D-Begich L-Fish Margin    
Hays Research 9/13-14/14 LV 36% 41%   +5    
Harstad Strategic Research 9/7-10/14 LV 40% 45% 6% +5    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 44% 38%   +6    
Rasmussen 8/20-21/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 7/31-8/3/14 RV 41% 45%   +4    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 37% 49%   +12    
               
AVG.   43.7% 42.7% 6.0% +1.0    
ARKANSAS *(D) Mark Pryor vs. (R) Tom Cotton GOP TAKEAWAY
Poll Poll Date Cotton-R Pryor-D Ind. Margin    
NBC News/Marist 9/2-4/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
CNN/Opinion Research 8/28-9/2/14 LV 49% 47%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 39%   +4    
Rasmussen 8/25-26/14 LV 43% 44%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 8/1-3/14 RV 43% 41%   +2    
Anzalone Liszt Grove 7/20-24/14 LV 46% 48%   +2    
Talk Business Poll 7/22-25/14 LV 44% 42%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Gravis Marketing 7/7-8/14 RV 51% 43%   +8    
Impact Management 6/29/14 RV 47% 43%   +4    
OnMessage 6/11-12/14 LV 47% 40%   +7    
Magellan Strategies 6/4-5/14 LV 49% 45%   +4    
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates 6/3-5/14 LV 51% 43%   +8    
Public Opinion Strategies 5/27-29/14 LV 46% 41%   +5    
Rasmussen 5/27-28/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
OnMessage 5/6-8/14 LV 42% 40%   +2    
NBC News/Marist 4/30-5/4/14 RV 40% 51%   +11    
Public Policy Polling 4/25-27/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
NYT/Kaiser (D) 4/8-15/14 RV 36% 46%   +10    
Harper Polling 4/9-10/14  39% 39%   Tie    
Talk Business/Hendrix College 4/3-4/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
Opinion Research 4/1-8/14 LV 38% 48%   +10    
Anzalone Liszt Grove 3/27-4/2/14 RV 45% 48%   +3    
Hickman Analytics 2/17-20/14 LV 51% 42%   +9    
Impact Management 2/12/14 LV 46% 42%   +4    
Rasmussen 2/4-5/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
Harper Polling 1/26-27/14 LV 42% 36%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 12/13-15/13 RV 44% 44%   Tie    
               
AVG.   44.6% 42.2%   +2.4    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
COLORADO *(D) Mark Udall vs. (R) Cory Gardner vs. (L) Gaylon Kent GOP TAKEAWAY
         
Poll Poll Date R-Cory Gardner *D-Mark Udall L-Kent Margin    
Gravis Marketing 9/16-17/14 LV 46% 39% 6% +7    
Quinnipiac 9/10-15/14 LV 48% 40%   +8    
USA Today / Suffolk 9/13-16/14 LV 43% 42%   +1    
Denver Post/Survey USA 9/8-10/14 LV 42% 46%   +4    
NBC News/Marist 9/2-4/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
Rasmussen 9/3-4/14 LV 42% 44%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 47% 51%   +4    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-20/14 RV 43% 44%   +1    
Quinnipiac 7/10-14/14 RV 44% 42%   +2    
Gravis Marketing 7/8-10/14 RV 47% 43% 6% +4    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-10/14 RV 41% 48%   +7    
Public Policy Polling 6/25-26/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 5/7-8/14 RV 43% 47%   +4    
Public Policy Polling 4/17-20/14 LV 45% 47%   +2    
               
AVG.   43.7% 43.6%   +0.1    
DELAWARE *(D) Chris Coons vs. (R) Kevin Wade DEM HOLD
Poll Poll Date R-Wade D-Coons Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/10-12/14 LV 34% 49%   +15    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 35% 48%   +13    
               
AVG.   34.5% 48.5%   +14    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
GEORGIA – *(R) Saxby Chambliss Retiring (R) David Perdue vs. (D) Michelle Nunn GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Perdue D-Nunn Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/15-16/14 LV 46% 41%   +5    
Insider Advantage 9/10-11/14 LV 50% 40%   +10    
WSB/Landmark 9/9-11/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
Atlanta Journal-Constitution 9/8-11/14 LV 45% 41%   +4    
Survey USA 9/5-8/14 LV 47% 44%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 47% 41%   +6    
WRBL/Ledger-Inquirer 8/24-25/14 LV 43% 45%   +2    
WSB/Landmark 8/20-21/14 LV 40% 47%   +7    
Survey USA 8/14-17/14 LV 50% 41%   +9    
Insider Advantage 8/12-13/14 LV 47% 40%   +7    
Vox Populi Polling 7/27-28/14 LV 49% 40%   +9    
Landmark Communications 7/25/14 LV 43% 47%   +4    
Rasmussen 7/23-24/14 LV 46% 40%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 44%   +6    
Landmark Communications 7/16/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 7/11-13/14 LV 41% 48%   +7    
Survey USA 6/3-5/14 LV 43% 38%   +5    
               
AVG.   45.9% 42.6%   +3.3    
HAWAII – (D) Inouye Death; Schatz apptd; *(D) Brian Schatz vs. (R) Cam Cavasso DEM HOLD
                     Special Election        
Poll Poll Date R-Cavasso D-Schatz Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/9-10/14 LV 28% 60%   +32    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 27% 62%   +35    
               
AVG.   27.5% 61.0%   +33.5    
IOWA – *(D) Tom Harkin Retiring (D) Bruce Braley vs. (R) Joni Ernst vs. (L) Doug Butzier vs. (I) Rick Stewart GOP TAKEAWAY
         
Poll Poll Date R-Joni Ernst D-Bruce Braley Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/17-18/14 LV 43% 43%   Tie    
Fox News 9/14-16/14 LV 41% 41%   Tie    
Quinnipiac 9/10-15/14 LV 50% 44%   +6    
CNN/Opinion Research 9/8-10/14 LV 48% 49%   +1    
Loras College 9/2-5/14 LV 41% 45%   +4    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 42% 44%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 8/28-30/14 LV 45% 43%   +2    
USA Today/Suffolk 8/23-26/14 LV 40% 40%   Tie    
Public Policy Polling 8/22-24/14 RV 40% 41% Butzier 2% +1    
        Stewart 2%      
Rasmussen 8/11-12/14 LV 43% 43%   Tie    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Gravis Marketing 7/17-18/14 LV 43% 44%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-13/14 RV 43% 43%   Tie    
Quinnipiac 6/12-16/14 RV 40% 44%   +4    
Vox Populi Polling 6/4-5/14 LV 49% 44%   +5    
Loras College 6/4-5/14 LV 48% 42%   +6    
Rasmussen 6/4-5/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 5/15-19/14 RV 39% 45%   +6    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 40% 44%   +4    
AVG.   43.8% 43.6%   +0.2    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
IDAHO *(R) Jim Risch vs. (D) Nels Mitchell GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Risch D-Mitchell Ind. Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 59% 25%   +34    
Rasmussen 5/28-29/14 LV 54% 29%   +25    
               
AVG.   59.0% 25.0%   +34    
ILLINOIS *(D) Dick Durbin vs.(R) Jim Oberweis DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Oberweis D-Durbin Ind. Margin    
Chicago Tribune 9/3-12/14 RV 32% 55%   +23    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 38% 50%   +12    
Harper Polling 8/24-27/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Chicago Sun-Times/We Ask America 8/27/14 LV 41% 48%   +7    
Gravis Marketing 8/4-5/14 RV 38% 48%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 43% 51%   +8    
Rasmussen 4/9-10/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
               
AVG.   37.4% 49.0%   +11.6    
KANSAS – (Dem Chad Taylor withdrew *(R) Pat Roberts vs. (D) Chad Taylor (Withdrew, Name OFF ballot)  vs.  IND TAKEAWAY
as Dems hope Former Dem Orman can   (I) Greg Orman (former Democrat) vs. (L) Randall Batson    
unseat incumbent Pat Roberts).              
Poll Poll Date *R-Roberts D-Taylor I-Orman Margin    
Rasmussen 9/16-17/14 LV 40%   45% +5    
Fox News 9/14-16/14 LV 42%   48% +6    
Public Policy Polling 9/11-14/14 LV 34% 6% 41% +7    
Survey USA 9/4-7/14 LV 36% 10% 37% +1    
Survey USA 8/20-23/14 LV 37% 32% 20% +5    
Public Policy Polling 8/14-17/14 LV 43% 39%   +4    
    32% 25% 23% +7    
Rasmussen 8/6-7/14 LV 44% 40%   +4    
Survey USA 7/17-22/14 LV 38% 33% 14% +5    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 54% 37%   +17    
AVG.   38.0% 8.0% 42.8% +4.8    
KENTUCKY *(R) Mitch McConnell vs. (D) Alison Lundgren Grimes vs. (L) David Patterson GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date *R-McConnell D-Grimes L-Patterson Margin    
Gravis Marketing 9/16/14 RV 51% 41%   +10    
NBC News/Marist 9/2-4/14 LV 47% 39%   +8    
CNN/Opinion Research 8/28-9/1/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Rasmussen 9/1-2/14 LV 46% 41%   +5    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 47% 42%   +5    
Survey USA 8/25-27/14 LV 46% 42% 5% +4    
Public Policy Polling 8/7-10/14 LV 44% 40% 7% +4    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Survey USA 7/18-23/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Voter Consumer Research 6/22-25/14 LV 49% 42%   +7    
Public Policy Polling 6/20-22/14 RV 46% 48%   +2    
Magellan Strategies 6/4-5/14 LV 46% 49%   +3    
Rasmussen 5/28-29/14 LV 48% 41%   +7    
Wenzel Strategies 5/23-24/14 LV 47% 44%   +3    
Survey USA 5/14-16/14 RV 42% 43%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 4/30-5/6/14 RV 46% 45%   +1    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 46% 45%   +1    
Gravis Marketing 4/15-17/14 RV 43% 36%   +7    
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV 44% 43%   +1    
Public Policy Polling/MoveOn 4/1-2/14 RV 44% 45%   +1    
               
AVG.   47.3% 41.6% 6.0% +5.7    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
LOUISIANA -Jungle Primary (Nov. 4); *(D) Mary Landrieu vs. (R) Bill Cassidy, Rob Maness, Paul Hollis GOP TAKEAWAY
Candidate wins with 50%+1; If not, top two              
in runoff on Dec. 6, 2014              
Poll Poll Date R-Cassidy D-Landrieu Primary Margin    
Fox News 9/14-16/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Cassidy 35% +4    
        Landrieu 31%      
        Maness 7%      
               
  RUNOFF (12/6/14) 51% 38%   +13    
               
Gravis Marketing 9/5-9/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 43% +13    
        Cassidy 30%      
        Maness 14%      
               
  RUNOFF (12/6/14) 45% 45%   Tie    
               
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV     Cassidy 38% +2    
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 36%      
        Maness 10%      
               
Rasmussen 9/2-3/14 LV 44% 41%   +3    
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
               
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 47% 46%   +1    
Rasmussen 7/8-9/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
               
Public Policy Polling 6/26-29/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 44% +17    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 27%      
        Maness 8%      
        Hollis 5%      
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
    47% 47%   Tie    
               
RUNOFF AVG.   46.8% 42.5%   +4.3    
MAINE *(R) Susan Collins vs. (D) Shenna Bellows GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Collins D-Bellows Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/3-4/14 LV 59% 31%   +28    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 65% 29%   +36    
Univ. of New Hampshire 6/12-18/14 LV 72% 17%   +55    
               
AVG.   65.3% 25.7%   +39.6    
MASSACHUSETTS *(D) Ed Markey vs.(R) Brian Herr DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Herr D-Markey Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/16-17/14 LV 31% 49%   +18    
Boston Globe 9/14-16/14 LV 27% 53%   +26    
               
AVG.   29.0% 51.0%   +22    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
MICHIGAN – *(D) Carl Levin Retiring (D) Gary Peters vs. (R) Terri Lynn Land DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date Land Peters Ind. Margin    
Mitchell Research 9/14/14 LV 41% 43%   +2    
Denno Research 9/11-13/14 LV 38% 45%   +7    
USA Today/Suffolk 9/6-10/14 LV 37% 46%   +9    
Public Policy Polling 9/4-7/14 LV 40% 45%   +5    
Detroit News 9/3-5/14 LV 37% 47%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 42%   +1    
Mitchell Research 8/27/14 LV 44% 46%   +2    
EPIC-MRA 8/22-25/14 LV 39% 45%   +6    
Mitchell Research 8/5/14 LV 44% 45%   +1    
Harper Polling 8/4-5/14 LV 44% 45%   +1    
Rasmussen 7/28-29/14 LV 39% 45%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Mitchell Research 7/7-17/14 LV 38% 43%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 7/12-15/14 LV 36% 45%   +9    
Denno Research 7/9-11/14 LV 37% 40%   +3    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-10/14 RV 37% 43%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 6/26-29/14 RV 36% 41%   +5    
Magellan Strategies 6/5-8/14 LV 41% 50%   +9    
Mitchell Research 6/6/14 LV 42% 45%   +3    
Detroit News 5/20-22/14 LV 35% 40%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 5/17-20/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 37% 42%   +5    
Mitchell Research 4/9/14 LV 44% 38%   +6    
Harper Polling 4/7-8/14 43% 40%   +3    
Public Policy Polling 4/3-6/14 RV 36% 41%   +5    
Marketing Resource Group 3/24-28/14 LV 40% 38%   +2    
LE&A / Denno Research 3/8-9/14 LV 37% 40%   +3    
Clarity Campaigns (D) 2/22-23/14 RV 40% 46%   +6    
EPIC-MRA 2/5-11/14 LV 41% 38%   +3    
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel 1/19-20/14 LV 42% 37%   +5    
Rasmussen 1/14-15/14 LV 37% 35%   +2    
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel 1/7-8/14 LV 44% 36%   +8    
Public Policy Polling 12/5-8/13 42% 40%   +2    
LE&A / Denno Research 11/12-14/13 LV 36% 37%   +1    
               
AVG.   39.9% 44.8%   +4.9    
MINNESOTA *(D) Al Franken vs.(R) Mike McFadden DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-McFadden *D-Franken Ind. Margin    
Star-Tribune/Mason-Dixon 9/8-10/14 LV 36% 49%   +13    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 41% 49%   +8    
KSTP/Survey USA 8/19-21/14 LV 42% 51%   +9    
Rasmussen 8/13-14/14 LV 42% 50%   +8    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 41% 55%   +14    
               
AVG.   40.3% 49.8%   +9.5    
MISSISSIPPI *(R) Thad Cochran vs. (D) Travis Childers vs. (Reform Party) Shawn O’Hara GOP HOLD
Poll Poll Date R-*Cochran D-Childers Reform-O’Hara Margin    
Public Policy Polling 7/10-13/14 RV 40% 24% 5% +16    
Rasmussen 6/25-26/14 LV 46% 34%   +12    
               
AVG.   43.0% 29.0% 5.0% +14.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
MONTANA – *(D) Max Baucus Retiring; (D) Amanda Curtis vs. (R) Steve Daines vs. (L) Roger Roots GOP TAKEAWAY
John Walsh appointed to fill out term;        
Walsh withdrew due to plagiarism claims;                
Amanda Curtis chosen by Democrats to              
replace Walsh as Candidate              
Poll Poll Date R-Daines D-Curtis L-Roots Margin    
Rasmussen 8/18-19/14 LV 55% 35%   +20    
               
AVG.   55.0% 35.0%   +20.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
NEBRASKA – *(R) Mike Johanns Retiring (R) Ben Sasse vs. (D) David Domina GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Sasse D-Domina Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 5/14-15/14 51% 34%   +17    
Rasmussen 4/7-8/14 LV 52% 27%   +25    
               
AVG.              
NEW HAMPSHIRE *(D) Jeanne Shaheen vs.(R) Scott Brown DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Brown D-Shaheen Ind. Margin    
Vox Populi 9/15-16/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
American Research Group 9/12-15/14 LV 45% 50%   +5    
Magellan 9/10-11/14 LV 46% 44%   +2    
New England College 9/10-11/14 LV 40% 51%   +11    
CNN/ORC 9/8-11/14 LV 48% 48%   Tie    
Rasmussen 9/10-11/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 41% 47%   +6    
Univ. of New Hampshire 8/7-17/14  44% 46%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 42% 52%   +10    
Magellan 7/16-17/14 RV 41% 46%   +5    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-13/14 RV 42% 50%   +8    
WMUR/Univ. NH 6/19 – 7/1/14 LV 40% 52%   +12    
American Research Group 6/14-18/14 RV 38% 50%   +12    
Suffolk / Boston Herald 6/14-18/14 LV 39% 49%   +10    
Vox Populi 5/14-15/14 LV 35% 47%   +12    
               
AVG.   44.1% 47.1%   +3.0    
NEW JERSEY – (D) Frank Lautenberg died; *(D) Cory Booker vs. (R) Jeff Bell DEM HOLD
       (D) Cory Booker won  Special Election        
Poll Poll Date R-Bell D-Booker Ind. Margin    
Quinnipiac 7/31-8/4/14 RV 37% 47%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 43% 50%   +7    
Monmouth Univ. 6/26-29/14 RV 23% 43%   +20    
Rasmussen 6/17-18/14 LV 35% 48%   +13    
               
AVG.   34.5% 47.0%   +12.5    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
NEW MEXICO *(D) Tom Udall vs.(R) Allen Weh DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Weh *D-Udall Ind. Margin    
Alburquerque Journal 9/9-11/14 LV 38% 51%   +13    
CBS News, NYT, YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 36% 54%   +18    
Albuquerque Journal 8/12-14/14 LV 35% 53%   +18    
               
AVG.   37.0% 52.5%   +15.5    
NORTH CAROLINA *(D) Kay Hagan vs. (R) Thom Tillis vs. (L) Sean Haugh DEM HOLD
               
Poll Poll Date R-Thom Tillis *D-Kay Hagan L-Haugh Margin    
Fox News 9/14-16/14 LV 36% 41%   +5    
Public Policy Polling 9/11-14/14 LV 40% 44% 5% +4    
Elon Univ. 9/5-9/14 LV 41% 45%   +4    
American Insights 9/5-10/14 LV 40% 50%   +10    
Survey USA/Civitas 9/9-10/14 LV 46% 47%   +1    
Rasmussen 9/8-10/14 LV 39% 45%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 42%   +1    
USA Today/Suffolk 8/16-19/14 LV 43% 45%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 8/14-17/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
Rasmussen 8/5-6/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
Civitas 7/28-29/14 RV 45% 43%   +2    
Gravis Marketing 7/22-27/14 LV 41% 44%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-20/14 RV 34% 41% 8% +7    
Civitas 6/18-22/14 RV 36% 42% 9% +6    
Public Policy Polling 6/12-15/14 RV 38% 42%   +4    
Civitas 5/20-22/14 RV 46% 41%   +5    
Public Policy Polling 5/9-11/14 LV 36% 38% 11% +2    
Rasmussen 5/7-8/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Magellan 4/14-15/14 LV 43% 43%   Tie    
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV 40% 42%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 4/3-6/14 RV 41% 43%   +2    
Survey USA 3/27-31/14 RV 46% 45%   +1    
               
AVG.   41.0% 44.9% 5.0% +3.9    
OKLAHOMA – *R – Tom Coburn *(R) James Lankford?, J.C. Watts?, James Weger?, TW Shannon? vs. (D) Undetermined GOP HOLD
       Retiring (Special Election)        
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Sooner Poll / News on 6 6/19-21/14 LV Lankford 43%     +8    
  GOP PRIMARY Shannon 35%          
  (June 24) Brogdon 4%          
               
Sooner Poll 5/5-10/14 LV Lankford 34%     +2    
  GOP PRIMARY Shannon 32%          
  (June 24) Brogdon 5%          
               
Harper Polling 1/30-2/1/14 LV            
  GOP Primary Watts, 40%     +3    
    Lankford, 37%          
    Weger, 8%          
    Shannon, 2%          
AVG.              
OKLAHOMA *(R) Jim Inhofe vs. (D) Matt Silverstein GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Inhofe D-Silverstein Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/15-16/14 LV 58% 27%   +31    
               
AVG.              
               
OREGON *(D) Jeff Merkley vs.(R) Monica Wehby DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Wehby *D-Merkley Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/2-3/14 LV 35% 48%   +13    
Survey USA 8/1-5/14 LV 33% 52%   +19    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 41% 55%   +14    
Survey USA 6/5-9/14 LV 32% 50%   +18    
Public Policy Polling 5/22-27/14 RV 36% 50%   +14    
Rasmussen 5/21-22/14 LV 37% 47%   +10    
Vox Populi Polling 4/28-30/14 LV 45% 41%   +4    
Benenson Strategy Group 4/14-17/14 LV 32% 52%   +20    
Harper Polling 4/1-2/14 LV 34% 46%   +12    
               
AVG.   36.3% 51.7%   +15.4    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
RHODE ISLAND *(D) Jack Reed vs.(R) Undetermined DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
SOUTH CAROLINA *(R) Lindsey Graham vs. (D) Brad Hutto GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date *R-Lindsey Graham D-Brad Hutto Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/9-10/14 LV 49% 30%   +19    
               
AVG.              
SOUTH CAROLINA – *(R) Tim Scott *(R) Tim Scott vs. (D) Joyce Dickerson GOP HOLD
(Jim DeMint Resigned, Scott Appointed)        
Poll Poll Date *R-Tim Scott D-Joyce Dickerson Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/9-10/14 LV 53% 31%   +22    
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
SOUTH DAKOTA -  (D) Rick Weiland vs. (R) Gov. Mike Rounds vs. (I) Larry Pressler GOP TAKEAWAY
*(D) Tim Johnson Retiring        
Poll Poll Date R-Rounds D-Weiland I-Pressler Margin    
Survey USA 9/3-7/14 LV 39% 28% 25% +11    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 29% 6% +14    
Rasmussen 6/4-5/14 LV 44% 29% 18% +15    
               
AVG.   41.0% 28.5% 15.5% +12.5    
TENNESSEE *(R) Lamar Alexander, Joe Carr, Brenda Lenard, Danny Paige vs. (D) Terry Adams, GOP HOLD
    William Gordon Ball    
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 4/29-30/14 LV Alexander 50% Adams 26%   +24    
    Alexander 51% Ball 25%   +26    
               
North Star Opinion ?            
  GOP PRIMARY Alexander, 62%     +45    
    Carr, 17%          
    Lenard, 2%          
    Paige, 1%          
               
Middle Tenn. State U. 1/23-26/14 RV Alexander, 47%     +40    
    Carr, 7%          
               
AVG.              
TEXAS   *(R) John Cornyn vs. (D) David Alameel vs. (L) Kathie Glass GOP HOLD
               
Poll Poll Date R-Cornyn D-Alameel L-Glass Margin    
Rasmussen 8/4-5/14 LV 47% 29%   +18    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 55% 38%   +17    
Univ. Texas/Texas Tribune 5/30 – 6/8/14 RV 36% 25% 3% +11    
Public Policy Polling 4/10-13/14 RV 49% 32%   +17    
               
AVG.   51.0% 33.5%   +17.5    
VIRGINIA *(D) Mark Warner vs.(R) Ed Gillespie vs. (L) Robert Sarvis DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date Gillespie-R Warner-D Sarvis (Lib) Margin    
Christopher Newport Univ. 9/2-7/14 LV 31% 53% 5% +22    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 39% 51%   +12    
Hampton Univ. 7/27-30/14 LV 32% 55%   +23    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 43% 53%   +10    
Roanoke College 7/14-19/14 RV 22% 47% 5% +25    
Rasmussen 6/11-12/14 LV 36% 53%   +17    
Public Policy Polling/MoveOn 4/1-2/14 RV 35% 49%   +14    
Quinnipiac 3/19-24/14 RV 31% 46% 6% +15    
Roanoke College 2/22-28/14 RV 29% 56%   +27    
Harper Polling 2/4-5/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Rasmussen 1/20-21/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
Christopher Newport Univ. 1/15-22/14 RV 30% 50%   +20    
Roanoke College 1/13-17/14 RV 21% 50%   +29    
               
AVG.   34.0% 53.0% 5.0% +19.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
WEST VIRGINIA -  (D) Natalie Tennant vs. (R) Shelley Moore Capito GOP TAKEAWAY
(D) Jay Rockefeller Retiring        
Poll Poll Date R-Capito D-Tennant Ind. Margin    
West Virginia Poll 8/15-23/14 LV 54% 37%   +17    
Rasmussen 8/19-20/14 LV 50% 33%   +17    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 51% 43%   +8    
West Virginia Poll 5/19-22/14 LV 49% 38%   +11    
Rasmussen 5/14-15/14 LV 48% 39%   +9    
Rasmussen 2/19-20/14 LV 49% 35%   +14    
Harper Polling 9/24-25/13 LV 51% 34%   +17    
               
AVG.   51.7% 37.7%   +14.0    
WYOMING *(R) Mike Enzi vs. (D) Charlie Hardy GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Enzi D-Hardy Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 8/20-21/14 LV 63% 27%   +36    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 68% 23%   +45    
               
AVG.   65.5% 25.0%   +40.5