2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Election Races – Polls and Projections

UPDATED 8/26/14 - Added new polls for the races in Minnesota and Iowa. Republican Joni Ernst is within 1-pt. in Iowa. . . . . (Details in table below).

We currently rate six races in the “Tossup” category (NC, AK, CO, MI, LA, IA) – six Democrat seats, with an additional four seats already projected as “GOP Takeaways” (AR, MT, SD, WV). Republicans need a net six takeaways to regain control of the Senate. Polls and projections on the thirty-five 2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Election races. Get the latest information on the Senate contests here.

The Democrats have a five-seat majority (55-45) when you include the two “Independents” who caucus with them. That means Republicans will have to net gain six seats to retake control of the U.S. Senate (If it is 50-50 with the two Independents voting with the Democrats, it would remain in Democratic control because the Vice-President would cast the tie-breaking vote). There are 35 races, 21 of them seats currently held by Democrats, and 14 by Republicans.

The 35 races (including special elections) are listed in the table below, with our latest projection for each race on the right column of the table. We have started listing polls on races where available. Notice that General Election matchup polls are listed, and also Primary Polls below the same poll if available. Averages are only listed for races already shaped up to be head-to-head between two candidates. As nominees for each party are selected, more averages will appear. Check back often for polling updates!

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2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Races – Polls & Projections
               
Current U.S. Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 45, Independents 2 (Caucus with Dems)        
2014 Seats Contested: 21 Democrat, 14 Republican            
Current 2014 Senate Projection: Democrats 43, Republicans 49, Independents 2, Tossup 6
Totals = 35 Contested Races – GOP Hold 14, Democrat Hold 11, Tossup 6, GOP Takeaway 4, Dem Takeaway 0
MOST RECENT POLLS ADDED
UPDATED 8/26/14              
IOWA – PPP (8/22-24/14): D-Bruce Braley 42%, R-Joni Ernst 41%
MINNESOTA – KSTP/Survey USA (8/19-21/14): *D-Sen. Al Franken 51%, R-Mike McFadden 42%
UPDATED 8/25/14              
ALASKA – Rasmussen (8/20-21/14): R-Dan Sullivan 47%, *D-Sen. Mark Begich 45%
GEORGIA – WSB/Landmark (8/20-21/14): D-Michelle Nunn 47%, R-David Perdue 40%
GEORGIA – Survey USA (8/14-17/14): R-David Perdue 50%, D-Michelle Nunn 41%
GEORGIA – Insider Advantage (8/12-13/14): R-David Perdue 47%, D-Michelle Nunn 40%
WYOMING – Rasmussen (8/20-21/14): *R-Sen. Mike Enzi 63%, D-Charlie Hardy 27%
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Univ. of NH (8/7-17/14): *D-Sen. Jeanne Shaheen 46%, R-Scott Brown 44%
WEST VIRGINIA – Rasmussen (8/19-20/14): R-Shelley Moore Capito 50%, D-Natalie Tennant 33%
MONTANA – Rasmussen (8/18-19/14): R-Steve Daines 55%, D-Amanda Curtis 35%
NORTH CAROLINA – (8/16-19/14): *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 45%, R-Thom Tillis 43%
NORTH CAROLINA – (8/14-17/14): *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 43%, R-Thom Tillis 42%
NEW MEXICO – Albuquerque Journal (8/12-14/14): *D-Sen. Tom Udall 53%, R-Allen Weh 35%
KANSAS – PPP (8/14-17/14): *R-Sen. Pat Roberts +7 in 4-way Race
MINNESOTA – Rasmussen (8/13-14/14): *D-Sen. Al Franken 50%, R-Mike McFadden 42%
UPDATED 8/12/14              
KENTUCKY – PPP (8/7-10/14): *R-Sen. Mitch McConnell 44%, D-Alison Lundergan Grimes 40%, L-David Patterson 7%
KANSAS – Rasmussen (8/6-7/14): *R-Pat Roberts 44%, D-Chad Taylor 40%
ILLINOIS – Gravis Marketing (8/4-5/14): *D-Sen. Dick Durbin 48%, R-Jim Oberweis 38% 
NORTH CAROLINA – Rasmussen (8/5-6/14): R-Thom Tillis 45%, *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 40%
NORTH CAROLINA – Civitas (7/28-29/14): R-Thom Tillis 45%, *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 43%
MICHIGAN – Mitchell Research (8/5/14): D-Gary Peters 45%, R-Terri Lynn Land 44%
MICHIGAN – Harper (8/4-5/14): D-Gary Peters 45%, R-Terri Lynn Land 44%
NEW JERSEY – Quinnipiac (7/31-8/4/14): *D-Sen. Cory Booker 47%, R-Jeff Bell 37%
NEW JERSEY – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *D-Sen. Cory Booker 50%, R-Jeff Bell 43%
VIRGINIA – Hampton Univ. (7/27-30/14): *D-Sen. Mark Warner 55%, R-Ed Gillespie 32%
VIRGINIA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *D-Sen. Mark Warner 53%, R-Ed Gillespie 43%
TEXAS – Rasmussen (8:4-5/14): *R-Sen. John Cornyn 47%, D-David Alameel 29%
TEXAS – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14):  *R-Sen. John Cornyn 55%, D-David Alameel 38%
ARKANSAS – PPP (8/1-3/14): R-Tom Cotton 43%, *D-Sen. Mark Pryor 41%
UPDATED 8/4/14              
HAWAII – Honolulu Star-Advertiser (7/21-29/14): DEMOCRAT PRIMARY – Colleen Hanabusa 50%, *Sen. Brian Schatz 42%
HAWAII – Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG (7/24-28/14): DEMOCRAT PRIMARY – *Sen. Brian Schatz 49%, Colleen Hanabusa 41%
MONTANA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Steve Daines 56%, *D-Sen. John Walsh 40%
OREGON – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *D-Sen. Jeff Merkley 55%, R-Monica Wehby 41%
UPDATED 7/31/14              
NORTH CAROLINA – Gravis Marketing (7/22-27/14): *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 44%, R-Thom Tillis 41%
ARKANSAS – ALGR (7/20-24/14): *D-Sen. Mark Pryor 48%, R-Tom Cotton 46%
IOWA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Joni Ernst 48%, D-Bruce Braley 47%
NEW HAMPSHIRE – CBS NEWS/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *D-Sen. Jeanne Shaheen 52%, R-Scott Brown 42%
ALASKA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *D-Sen. Mark Begich 49%, R-Dan Sullivan 37%
UPDATED 7/30/14              
GEORGIA – Vox Populi Polling (7/27-28/14): R-David Perdue 49%, D-Michelle Nunn 40%
GEORGIA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-David Perdue 50%, D-Michelle Nunn 44%
GEORGIA – Landmark Communications (7/25/14): D-Michelle Nunn 47%, R-David Perdue 43%
MICHIGAN – Rasmussen (7/28-29/14): D-Gary Peters 45%, R-Terri Lynn Land 39%
LOUISIANA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Bill Cassidy 47%, *D-Sen. Mary Landrieu 46%
UPDATED 7/29/14              
NORTH CAROLINA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Thom Tillis 48%, *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 47%
ARKANSAS – Talk Business Poll (7/22-25/14): R-Tom Cotton 44%, *D-Sen. Mark Pryor 42%
ARKANSAS – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Tom Cotton 50%, *D-Sen. Mark Pryor 46%
MICHIGAN – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Terri Lynn Land 48%, D-Gary Peters 47%
MICHIGAN – Mitchell Research (7/7-17/14): D-Gary Peters 43%, R-Terri Lynn Land 38%
COLORADO – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *D-Sen. Mark Udall 51%, R-Cory Gardner 47%
UPDATED 7/28/14              
KENTUCKY – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *R-Sen. Mitch McConnell 50%, D-Alison Lundergan Grimes 46%
KENTUCKY – Survey USA (7/18-23/14): *R-Sen. Mitch McConnell 47%, D-Alison Lundergan Grimes 45%
GEORGIA – Rasmussen (7/23-24/14): R-David Perdue 46%, D-Michelle Nunn 40%
KANSAS – Survey USA (7/17-22/14): GOP PRIMARY – Sen. Pat Roberts +20
KANSAS – Survey USA (7/17-22/14): *R-Sen. Pat Roberts 38%, D-Chad Taylor 33%, I-Greg Orman 14%, L-Randall Batson 5%
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Magellan (7/16-17/14): *D-Jeanne Shaheen 46%, R-Scott Brown 41%
*Denotes Incumbent Senator              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
               
ALABAMA *(R) Jeff Sessions vs. (D) Undetermined GOP HOLD
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
ALASKA *(D) Mark Begich vs. (R) Dan Sullivan TOSSUP
       
Poll Poll Date R-Sullivan *D-Begich Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 8/20-21/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 7/31-8/3/14 RV 41% 45%   +4    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 37% 49%   +12    
               
AVG.   41.7% 46.3%   +4.6    
ARKANSAS *(D) Mark Pryor vs. (R) Tom Cotton GOP TAKEAWAY
Poll Poll Date Cotton-R Pryor-D Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 8/1-3/14 RV 43% 41%   +2    
Anzalone Liszt Grove 7/20-24/14 LV 46% 48%   +2    
Talk Business Poll 7/22-25/14 LV 44% 42%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Gravis Marketing 7/7-8/14 RV 51% 43%   +8    
Impact Management 6/29/14 RV 47% 43%   +4    
OnMessage 6/11-12/14 LV 47% 40%   +7    
Magellan Strategies 6/4-5/14 LV 49% 45%   +4    
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates 6/3-5/14 LV 51% 43%   +8    
Public Opinion Strategies 5/27-29/14 LV 46% 41%   +5    
Rasmussen 5/27-28/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
OnMessage 5/6-8/14 LV 42% 40%   +2    
NBC News/Marist 4/30-5/4/14 RV 40% 51%   +11    
Public Policy Polling 4/25-27/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
NYT/Kaiser (D) 4/8-15/14 RV 36% 46%   +10    
Harper Polling 4/9-10/14  39% 39%   Tie    
Talk Business/Hendrix College 4/3-4/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
Opinion Research 4/1-8/14 LV 38% 48%   +10    
Anzalone Liszt Grove 3/27-4/2/14 RV 45% 48%   +3    
Hickman Analytics 2/17-20/14 LV 51% 42%   +9    
Impact Management 2/12/14 LV 46% 42%   +4    
Rasmussen 2/4-5/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
Harper Polling 1/26-27/14 LV 42% 36%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 12/13-15/13 RV 44% 44%   Tie    
               
AVG.   46.8% 44.0%   +2.8    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
COLORADO *(D) Mark Udall vs. (R) Cory Gardner vs. (L) Gaylon Kent TOSSUP
         
Poll Poll Date R-Cory Gardner *D-Mark Udall L-Kent Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 47% 51%   +4    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-20/14 RV 43% 44%   +1    
Quinnipiac 7/10-14/14 RV 44% 42%   +2    
Gravis Marketing 7/8-10/14 RV 47% 43% 6% +4    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-10/14 RV 41% 48%   +7    
Public Policy Polling 6/25-26/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 5/7-8/14 RV 43% 47%   +4    
Public Policy Polling 4/17-20/14 LV 45% 47%   +2    
               
AVG.   44.4% 45.6% 6.0% +1.2    
DELAWARE *(D) Chris Coons vs. (R) Christine O’Donnell?, Tom Kovach? DEM HOLD
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
GEORGIA – *(R) Saxby Chambliss Retiring (R) David Perdue vs. (D) Michelle Nunn GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Perdue D-Nunn Ind. Margin    
WSB/Landmark 8/20-21/14 LV 40% 47%   +7    
Survey USA 8/14-17/14 LV 50% 41%   +9    
Insider Advantage 8/12-13/14 LV 47% 40%   +7    
Vox Populi Polling 7/27-28/14 LV 49% 40%   +9    
Landmark Communications 7/25/14 LV 43% 47%   +4    
Rasmussen 7/23-24/14 LV 46% 40%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 44%   +6    
Landmark Communications 7/16/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 7/11-13/14 LV 41% 48%   +7    
Survey USA 6/3-5/14 LV 43% 38%   +5    
               
AVG.   47.0% 42.0%   +5.0    
HAWAII – (D) Inouye Death; Schatz apptd; *(D) Brian Schatz, Colleen Hanabusa vs. (R) Charles Djou? DEM HOLD
                     Special Election        
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Honolulu Star-Advertiser 7/21-29/14 LV   Hanabusa 50%   +8    
  DEMOCRAT PRIMARY Schatz 42%        
  (August 9)            
               
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG 7/24-28/14 LV   Schatz 49%   +8    
  DEMOCRAT PRIMARY Hanabusa 41%        
  (August 9)            
               
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG 5/18-19/14 LV            
  DEMOCRAT PRIMARY Schatz 44%   +5    
  (August 9)   Hanabusa 39%        
               
Honolulu Civil Beat / MRG 2/12-15/14 LV            
  DEMOCRAT PRIMARY Hanabusa, 40%   Tie    
      Schatz, 40%        
Honolulu Star-Advertiser 2/1-11/14 RV            
  DEMOCRAT PRIMARY Hanabusa, 48%   +8    
      Schatz, 40%        
               
AVG.              
IOWA – *(D) Tom Harkin Retiring (D) Bruce Braley vs. (R) Joni Ernst TOSSUP
         
Poll Poll Date R-Joni Ernst D-Bruce Braley Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 8/22-24/14 RV 41% 42%   +1    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Gravis Marketing 7/17-18/14 LV 43% 44%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-13/14 RV 43% 43%   Tie    
Quinnipiac 6/12-16/14 RV 40% 44%   +4    
Vox Populi Polling 6/4-5/14 LV 49% 44%   +5    
Loras College 6/4-5/14 LV 48% 42%   +6    
Rasmussen 6/4-5/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 5/15-19/14 RV 39% 45%   +6    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 40% 44%   +4    
AVG.   43.8% 44.0%   +0.2    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
IDAHO *(R) Jim Risch vs. (D) Nels Mitchell GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Risch D-Mitchell Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 5/28-29/14 LV 54% 29%   +25    
               
AVG.              
ILLINOIS *(D) Dick Durbin vs.(R) Jim Oberweis DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Oberweis D-Durbin Ind. Margin    
Gravis Marketing 8/4-5/14 RV 38% 48%   +10    
Rasmussen 4/9-10/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
               
AVG.              
KANSAS *(R) Pat Roberts vs. (D) Chad Taylor vs. (I) Greg Orman vs. (L) Randall Batson GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date *R-Roberts D-Taylor Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 8/14-17/14 LV 43% 39%   +4    
    32% 25% I-Orman 23% +7    
        L-Batson 3%      
Rasmussen 8/6-7/14 LV 44% 40%   +4    
Survey USA 7/17-22/14 LV 38% 33% I-Orman 14% +5    
        L-Batson 4%      
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 54% 37%   +17    
AVG.   42.0% 33.8%   +8.2    
KENTUCKY *(R) Mitch McConnell vs. (D) Alison Lundgren Grimes vs. (L) David Patterson GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date *R-McConnell D-Grimes L-Patterson Margin    
Public Policy Polling 8/7-10/14 LV 44% 40% 7% +5    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Survey USA 7/18-23/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Voter Consumer Research 6/22-25/14 LV 49% 42%   +7    
Public Policy Polling 6/20-22/14 RV 46% 48%   +2    
Magellan Strategies 6/4-5/14 LV 46% 49%   +3    
Rasmussen 5/28-29/14 LV 48% 41%   +7    
Wenzel Strategies 5/23-24/14 LV 47% 44%   +3    
Survey USA 5/14-16/14 RV 42% 43%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 4/30-5/6/14 RV 46% 45%   +1    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 46% 45%   +1    
Gravis Marketing 4/15-17/14 RV 43% 36%   +7    
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV 44% 43%   +1    
Public Policy Polling/MoveOn 4/1-2/14 RV 44% 45%   +1    
               
AVG.   47.5% 43.3% 7.0% +4.2    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
LOUISIANA -Jungle Primary (Nov. 4); *(D) Mary Landrieu vs. (R) Bill Cassidy, Rob Maness, Paul Hollis TOSSUP
Candidate wins with 50%+1; If not, top two              
in runoff on Dec. 6, 2014              
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Primary Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV Cassidy 47% Landrieu 46%   +1    
Rasmussen 7/8-9/14 LV Cassidy 43% Landrieu 46%   +3    
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
               
Public Policy Polling 6/26-29/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 44% +17    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 27%      
        Maness 8%      
        Hollis 5%      
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
    Cassidy 47% Landrieu 47%   Tie    
               
Magellan Strategies 6/5-8/14 LV Cassidy 50% Landrieu 44%   +6    
Southern Media/Opinion Research 4/28-30/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 36% +1    
        Cassidy 35%      
        Maness 7%      
        Hollis 4%      
               
Public Policy Polling 4/14-15/14             
  RUNOFF (12/6/14) Cassidy 44% Landrieu 42%   +2    
               
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 42% +24    
        Cassidy 18%      
        Hollis 5%      
        Maness 4%      
               
AVG.              
MAINE *(R) Susan Collins vs. (D) Shenna Bellows GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Collins D-Bellows Ind. Margin    
Univ. of New Hampshire 6/12-18/14 LV 72% 17%   +55    
               
AVG.              
MASSACHUSETTS *(D) Ed Markey vs.(R) Gabriel Gomez? DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
MICHIGAN – *(D) Carl Levin Retiring (D) Gary Peters vs. (R) Terri Lynn Land TOSSUP
         
Poll Poll Date Land Peters Ind. Margin    
Mitchell Research 8/5/14 LV 44% 45%   +1    
Harper Polling 8/4-5/14 LV 44% 45%   +1    
Rasmussen 7/28-29/14 LV 39% 45%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Mitchell Research 7/7-17/14 LV 38% 43%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 7/12-15/14 LV 36% 45%   +9    
Denno Research 7/9-11/14 LV 37% 40%   +3    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-10/14 RV 37% 43%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 6/26-29/14 RV 36% 41%   +5    
Magellan Strategies 6/5-8/14 LV 41% 50%   +9    
Mitchell Research 6/6/14 LV 42% 45%   +3    
Detroit News 5/20-22/14 LV 35% 40%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 5/17-20/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 37% 42%   +5    
Mitchell Research 4/9/14 LV 44% 38%   +6    
Harper Polling 4/7-8/14 43% 40%   +3    
Public Policy Polling 4/3-6/14 RV 36% 41%   +5    
Marketing Resource Group 3/24-28/14 LV 40% 38%   +2    
LE&A / Denno Research 3/8-9/14 LV 37% 40%   +3    
Clarity Campaigns (D) 2/22-23/14 RV 40% 46%   +6    
EPIC-MRA 2/5-11/14 LV 41% 38%   +3    
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel 1/19-20/14 LV 42% 37%   +5    
Rasmussen 1/14-15/14 LV 37% 35%   +2    
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel 1/7-8/14 LV 44% 36%   +8    
Public Policy Polling 12/5-8/13 42% 40%   +2    
LE&A / Denno Research 11/12-14/13 LV 36% 37%   +1    
               
AVG.   40.1% 43.9%   +3.8    
MINNESOTA *(D) Al Franken vs.(R) Mike McFadden DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-McFadden *D-Franken Ind. Margin    
KSTP/Survey USA 8/19-21/14 LV 42% 51%   +9    
Rasmussen 8/13-14/14 LV 42% 50%   +8    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 41% 55%   +14    
               
AVG.   41.7% 52.0%   +10.3    
MISSISSIPPI *(R) Thad Cochran vs. (D) Travis Childers vs. (Reform Party) Shawn O’Hara GOP HOLD
Poll Poll Date R-*Cochran D-Childers Reform-O’Hara Margin    
Public Policy Polling 7/10-13/14 RV 40% 24% 5% +16    
Rasmussen 6/25-26/14 LV 46% 34%   +12    
               
AVG.   43.0% 29.0% 5.0% +14.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
MONTANA – *(D) Max Baucus Retiring; (D) Amanda Curtis vs. (R) Steve Daines vs. (L) Roger Roots GOP TAKEAWAY
John Walsh appointed to fill out term;        
Walsh withdrew due to plagiarism claims;                
Amanda Curtis chosen by Democrats to              
replace Walsh as Candidate              
Poll Poll Date R-Daines D-Curtis L-Roots Margin    
Rasmussen 8/18-19/14 LV 55% 35%   +20    
               
AVG.   55.0% 35.0%   +20.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
NEBRASKA – *(R) Mike Johanns Retiring (R) Ben Sasse vs. (D) David Domina GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Sasse D-Domina Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 5/14-15/14 51% 34%   +17    
Rasmussen 4/7-8/14 LV 52% 27%   +25    
               
AVG.              
NEW HAMPSHIRE *(D) Jeanne Shaheen vs.(R) Bob Smith?, Jim Rubens, Charlie Bass?,  DEM HOLD
    Karen Testerman, Scott Brown    
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Univ. of New Hampshire 8/7-17/14  Brown 44% Shaheen 46%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV Brown 42% Shaheen 52%   +10    
Magellan 7/16-17/14 RV Brown 41% Shaheen 46%   +5    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-13/14 RV Brown 42% Shaheen 50%   +8    
WMUR/Univ. NH 6/19 – 7/1/14 LV Brown 40% Shaheen 52%   +12    
American Research Group 6/14-18/14 RV Brown 38% Shaheen 50%   +12    
Suffolk / Boston Herald 6/14-18/14 LV Brown 39% Shaheen 49%   +10    
Vox Populi 5/14-15/14 LV Brown 35% Shaheen 47%   +12    
    Smith 34% Shaheen 45%   +11    
               
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV Brown 43% Shaheen 49%   +6    
               
Public Policy Polling 4/7-8/14 RV Brown, 41% Shaheen, 49%   +8    
               
Univ. of New Hampshire 4/1-9/14 LV Brown, 39% Shaheen, 45%   +6    
    Smith, 34% Shaheen, 48%   +14    
    Rubens, 27% Shaheen, 48%   +21    
    Testerman, 25% Shaheen, 48%   +23    
               
American Research Group 3/13-16/14 RV Brown, 38% Shaheen, 50%   +12    
               
Rasmussen 3/12-13/14 LV Brown, 41% Shaheen, 50%   +9    
               
Suffolk 2/27-3/5/14 Brown, 39% Shaheen, 52%   +13    
    Rubens, 29% Shaheen, 52%   +23    
    Martin, 27% Shaheen, 52%   +25    
    Smith, 32% Shaheen, 53%   +21    
    Testerman, 29% Shaheen, 52%    +23    
               
Public Policy Polling 2/19-20/14 RV Brown, 39% Shaheen, 47%   +8    
               
AVG.              
NEW JERSEY – (D) Frank Lautenberg died; *(D) Cory Booker vs. (R) Jeff Bell DEM HOLD
       (D) Cory Booker won  Special Election        
Poll Poll Date R-Bell D-Booker Ind. Margin    
Quinnipiac 7/31-8/4/14 RV 37% 47%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 43% 50%   +7    
Monmouth Univ. 6/26-29/14 RV 23% 43%   +20    
Rasmussen 6/17-18/14 LV 35% 48%   +13    
               
AVG.   34.5% 47.0%   +12.5    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
NEW MEXICO *(D) Tom Udall vs.(R) Allen Weh DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Weh *D-Udall Ind. Margin    
Albuquerque Journal 8/12-14/14 LV 35% 53%   +18    
               
AVG.   35.0% 53.0%   +18.0    
NORTH CAROLINA *(D) Kay Hagan vs. (R) Thom Tillis vs. (L) Sean Haugh TOSSUP
               
Poll Poll Date R-Thom Tillis *D-Kay Hagan L-Haugh Margin    
USA Today/Suffolk 8/16-19/14 LV 43% 45%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 8/14-17/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
Rasmussen 8/5-6/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
Civitas 7/28-29/14 RV 45% 43%   +2    
Gravis Marketing 7/22-27/14 LV 41% 44%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-20/14 RV 34% 41% 8% +7    
Civitas 6/18-22/14 RV 36% 42% 9% +6    
Public Policy Polling 6/12-15/14 RV 38% 42%   +4    
Civitas 5/20-22/14 RV 46% 41%   +5    
Public Policy Polling 5/9-11/14 LV 36% 38% 11% +2    
Rasmussen 5/7-8/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Magellan 4/14-15/14 LV 43% 43%   Tie    
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV 40% 42%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 4/3-6/14 RV 41% 43%   +2    
Survey USA 3/27-31/14 RV 46% 45%   +1    
               
AVG.   44.0% 43.7%   +0.3    
OKLAHOMA – *R – Tom Coburn *(R) James Lankford?, J.C. Watts?, James Weger?, TW Shannon? vs. (D) Undetermined GOP HOLD
       Retiring (Special Election)        
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Sooner Poll / News on 6 6/19-21/14 LV Lankford 43%     +8    
  GOP PRIMARY Shannon 35%          
  (June 24) Brogdon 4%          
               
Sooner Poll 5/5-10/14 LV Lankford 34%     +2    
  GOP PRIMARY Shannon 32%          
  (June 24) Brogdon 5%          
               
Harper Polling 1/30-2/1/14 LV            
  GOP Primary Watts, 40%     +3    
    Lankford, 37%          
    Weger, 8%          
    Shannon, 2%          
AVG.              
OKLAHOMA *(R) Jim Inhofe vs. (D) Matt Silverstein GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Inhofe D-Silverstein Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/15-16/14 LV 58% 27%   +31    
               
AVG.              
               
OREGON *(D) Jeff Merkley vs.(R) Monica Wehby DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Wehby *D-Merkley Ind. Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 41% 55%   +14    
Survey USA 6/5-9/14 LV 32% 50%   +18    
Public Policy Polling 5/22-27/14 RV 36% 50%   +14    
Rasmussen 5/21-22/14 LV 37% 47%   +10    
Vox Populi Polling 4/28-30/14 LV 45% 41%   +4    
Benenson Strategy Group 4/14-17/14 LV 32% 52%   +20    
Harper Polling 4/1-2/14 LV 34% 46%   +12    
               
AVG.   36.5% 50.5%   +14.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
RHODE ISLAND *(D) Jack Reed vs.(R) Undetermined DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
SOUTH CAROLINA *(R) Lindsey Graham vs. (D) Brad Hutto GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date *R-Lindsey Graham D-Brad Hutto Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/9-10/14 LV 49% 30%   +19    
               
AVG.              
SOUTH CAROLINA – *(R) Tim Scott *(R) Tim Scott vs. (D) Joyce Dickerson GOP HOLD
(Jim DeMint Resigned, Scott Appointed)        
Poll Poll Date *R-Tim Scott D-Joyce Dickerson Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/9-10/14 LV 53% 31%   +22    
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
SOUTH DAKOTA -  (D) Rick Weiland vs. (R) Gov. Mike Rounds, Bill Napoli, Larry Rhoden,  GOP TAKEAWAY
*(D) Tim Johnson Retiring   Stace Nelson, Annette Bosworth vs (I) Larry Pressler    
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 6/4-5/14 LV Rounds 44% Weiland 29% Pressler 18% +15    
               
Survey USA 5/6-10/14 LV Rounds 44% Weiland 30%   +14    
               
Public Policy Polling 4/30-5/1/14 LV Rounds 38% Weiland 28% Pressler 15% +10    
               
Rasmussen 2/25-26/14 LV Rounds, 51% Weiland, 31%   +20    
               
AVG.              
TENNESSEE *(R) Lamar Alexander, Joe Carr, Brenda Lenard, Danny Paige vs. (D) Terry Adams, GOP HOLD
    William Gordon Ball    
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 4/29-30/14 LV Alexander 50% Adams 26%   +24    
    Alexander 51% Ball 25%   +26    
               
North Star Opinion ?            
  GOP PRIMARY Alexander, 62%     +45    
    Carr, 17%          
    Lenard, 2%          
    Paige, 1%          
               
Middle Tenn. State U. 1/23-26/14 RV Alexander, 47%     +40    
    Carr, 7%          
               
AVG.              
TEXAS   *(R) John Cornyn vs. (D) David Alameel vs. (L) Kathie Glass GOP HOLD
               
Poll Poll Date R-Cornyn D-Alameel L-Glass Margin    
Rasmussen 8/4-5/14 LV 47% 29%   +18    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 55% 38%   +17    
Univ. Texas/Texas Tribune 5/30 – 6/8/14 RV 36% 25% 3% +11    
Public Policy Polling 4/10-13/14 RV 49% 32%   +17    
               
AVG.   51.0% 33.5%   +17.5    
VIRGINIA *(D) Mark Warner vs.(R) Ed Gillespie vs. (L) Robert Sarvis DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date Gillespie-R Warner-D Sarvis (Lib) Margin    
Hampton Univ. 7/27-30/14 LV 32% 55%   +23    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 43% 53%   +10    
Roanoke College 7/14-19/14 RV 22% 47% 5% +25    
Rasmussen 6/11-12/14 LV 36% 53%   +17    
Public Policy Polling/MoveOn 4/1-2/14 RV 35% 49%   +14    
Quinnipiac 3/19-24/14 RV 31% 46% 6% +15    
Roanoke College 2/22-28/14 RV 29% 56%   +27    
Harper Polling 2/4-5/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Rasmussen 1/20-21/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
Christopher Newport Univ. 1/15-22/14 RV 30% 50%   +20    
Roanoke College 1/13-17/14 RV 21% 50%   +29    
               
AVG.   32.3% 51.7% 5.0% +19.4    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
WEST VIRGINIA -  (D) Natalie Tennant vs. (R) Shelley Moore Capito GOP TAKEAWAY
(D) Jay Rockefeller Retiring        
Poll Poll Date R-Capito D-Tennant Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 8/19-20/14 LV 50% 33%   +17    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 51% 43%   +8    
West Virginia Poll 5/19-22/14 LV 49% 38%   +11    
Rasmussen 5/14-15/14 LV 48% 39%   +9    
Rasmussen 2/19-20/14 LV 49% 35%   +14    
Harper Polling 9/24-25/13 LV 51% 34%   +17    
               
AVG.   50.5% 38.0%   +12.5    
WYOMING *(R) Mike Enzi vs. (D) Charlie Hardy GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Enzi D-Hardy Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 8/20-21/14 LV 63% 27%   +36    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 68% 23%   +45    
               
AVG.   65.5% 25.0%   +40.5