2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Election Races – Polls and Projections

UPDATED 11/21/14 – Added two new polls showing Cassidy +15 and +11 in Louisiana Runoff race (See details in table below). That’s four polls now since the Midterm Election on November 4, and Cassidy averages a 15.8 point lead over incumbent Democrat Sen. Mary Landrieu. Their runoff is December 6.

UPDATE 11/12/14, 9:30 AM ET - The Associated Press is calling Alaska for Republican Dan Sullivan. Begich refusing to concede at this point. That gives the GOP an 8th takeaway seat, and now 53-seats in the new U.S. Senate. If Cassidy wins the December 6 Louisiana runoff, our projection of 54 GOP seats will be right on the mark! We’ll see.

UPDATE 11/5/14, 7:45 AM ET - What a night for Republicans! It now appears very possible that our projection of GOP +9 will be exactly right! Republicans have picked off 7 Democrat Senate Seats so far: WV, AR, SD, CO, MT, IA, NC. Dan Sullivan leads in Alaska and Bill Cassidy is likely to defeat Democrat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana in a Dec. 6 runoff. If Sullivan and Cassidy win, it will be GOP +9 and the Senate will be – GOP 54, Dem 44, Ind 2 – exactly as we projected. Now, we did get two states wrong. The Democrats held onto NH, but lost NC. We had it reversed. But the numbers end up the same! As final numbers are confirmed, we will add those to the table below to compare with the polling averages. It’s clear, many polls overestimated the strength of the Democrats in this cycle. Thanks for stopping by during the 2014 Campaign. I hope you will stay with us for 2016!

11/3/14, 9:45 PM ET - We have added in the final polls issued today, and posted our final projections for the Senate Midterm Elections. We believe the Republicans will have a +9 net gain in Senate seats when it is all said and done. WV, SD, and MT are lock takeaways, with Arkansas and Louisiana fairly strong takeaways for the GOP. Colorado and Iowa look to be likely GOP takeaways, with Alaska less sure. That makes +8. The final two changes were to project that Pat Roberts will eek out a win in Kansas (a GOP Hold), and that Scott Brown will upset Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire. He has been closing fast, and we think Brown just may end up winning. We left North Carolina in the Democrat column, although it could turn red tomorrow night very easily. Kansas, New Hampshire and North Carolina are such close races, it is really anyone’s guess. We’ll see how it turns out tomorrow!

We currently rate nine races as “GOP Takeaway,” which would give Republicans a 54-44-2 Majority in the U.S. Senate.

The Democrats currently have a five-seat majority (55-45) when you include the two “Independents” who caucus with them. That means Republicans will have to net gain six seats to retake control of the U.S. Senate (If it is 50-50 with the two Independents voting with the Democrats, it would remain in Democratic control because the Vice-President would cast the tie-breaking vote). There are 36 races, 21 of them seats currently held by Democrats, and 15 by Republicans.

The 36 races (including special elections) are listed in the table below, with our projection for each race on the right column of the table. We have listed polls on races where available. We will now use polls from the last 20 days to figure the average (unless fewer than 3 polls are available).

Election Day Thread – Exit Poll Information when it becomes available. Share your predictions, thoughts on today’s big vote!

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2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Races – Polls & Projections
               
Current U.S. Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 45, Independents 2 (Caucus with Dems)        
2014 Seats Contested: 21 Democrat, 15 Republican (One Special Election – OK, Coburn Retiring)        
Current 2014 Senate Projection (No Tossups): Republicans 54, Democrats 44, Independents 2
Totals = 36 Contested Races – GOP Hold 15, Democrat Hold 12, GOP Takeaway 9, Independent Takeaway 0, Dem Takeaway 0
Key State 20-Day Polling Averages & FINAL Projections (Scroll down for details)
Alaska -GOP Takeaway +1.6   Louisiana – GOP Takeaway  12/6 Runoff +15.8  
Arkansas – GOP Takeaway +6.5   Michigan – Dem Hold   +12.4  
Colorado - GOP Takeaway +2.8   Montana – GOP Takeaway   +15.6  
Georgia - GOP Hold +2.6   New Hampshire -GOP Takeaway   +1.8  
Iowa – GOP Takeaway +1.4   North Carolina – Dem Hold   +0.4  
Kansas - GOP Hold +1.4   South Dakota – GOP Takeaway   +11.3  
Kentucky – GOP Hold +6.7   Virginia – Dem Hold   +8.4  
      West Virginia – GOP Takeaway   +16.6  
MOST RECENT POLLS ADDED (Margin of Individual Poll Indicated)
11/21/14 LA +15, LA +11 11/17/14 LA +21 11/14/14 LA +16            
11/3/14 NH +2, NC +2, NC tie, KS +1, IA +3, GA +1, NJ +14, GA +4, GA +3, KS +1, NC +2, CO +2, NH +1, CO +3,
11/3/14 (Continued) GA +3, IA tie, AK +1, MN +11            
11/2/14 NH +1, MI +13, IL +10, GA +4, KY +9, LA +5
11/1/14 KY +8, AR +8, LA +1, IA +7, KS +1, NC +1, NC +3, KS +1, IA +1, CO +1, GA +2
10/31/14 LA +8, KY +7, VA +9, NH +4, NH +7, GA +5, IA +1, IA +1, IA +2, NC +1, NC +2, AK +5, IA tie, VA +4, VA +7, OR +21
10/30/14 GA tie, KY +5, NH tie, NH +8, NC +1, NC +1, NC +5, NC tie, CO +2, CO +3, AR +13, CO +7, IL +10, MI +15, NC +4, AK +4
*Denotes Incumbent Senator              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
               
ALABAMA *(R) Jeff Sessions vs. (D) Unopposed GOP HOLD
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
ALASKA *(D) Mark Begich vs. (R) Dan Sullivan vs. (L) Mark Fish GOP TAKEAWAY
       
Poll Poll Date R-Sullivan *D-Begich L-Fish Margin    
Public Policy Polling 11/1-2/14 LV 46% 45%   +1    
Rasmussen 10/27-30/14 LV 47% 42%   +5    
Moore Information 10/26-28/14 LV 42% 38%   +4    
Ivan Moore 10/24-26/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 48% 44%   +4    
Rasmussen 10/8-12/14 LV 48% 45%   +3    
Fox News 10/4-7/14 LV 44% 40%   +4    
CNN/Opinion Research 10/1-6/14 LV 50% 44%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 48% 42%   +6    
Rasmussen 9/23-24/14 LV 48% 43%   +5    
Public Policy Polling 9/18-21/14 LV 45% 42%   +3    
Dittman Research 9/14-17/14 LV 49% 43%   +6    
Hays Research 9/13-14/14 LV 36% 41%   +5    
Harstad Strategic Research 9/7-10/14 LV 40% 45% 6% +5    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 44% 38%   +6    
Rasmussen 8/20-21/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 7/31-8/3/14 RV 41% 45%   +4    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 37% 49%   +12    
               
Final Results   48.8% 45.6%   +3.2    
10-Day AVG.   44.3% 43.3%   +1.0    
20-Day AVG.   45.0% 43.4%   +1.6    
ARKANSAS *(D) Mark Pryor vs. (R) Tom Cotton GOP TAKEAWAY
Poll Poll Date Cotton-R Pryor-D Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 10/30-11/1/14 LV 49% 41%   +8    
The Arkansas Poll (Univ. of Arkansas) 10/21-27/14 LV 49% 36%   +13    
NBC News/Marist 10/18-22/14 LV 45% 43%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 47% 42%   +5    
Talk Business/Hendrix College 10/15-16/14 LV 49% 41%   +8    
Rasmussen 10/13-15/14 LV 47% 44%   +3    
Fox News 10/4-7/14 LV 46% 39%   +7    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 45% 41%   +4    
Rasmussen 9/24-25/14 LV 47% 40%   +7    
USA Today/Suffolk 9/20-23/14 LV 43% 45%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 9/18-21/14 LV 45% 39%   +6    
NBC News/Marist 9/2-4/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
CNN/Opinion Research 8/28-9/2/14 LV 49% 47%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 39%   +4    
Rasmussen 8/25-26/14 LV 43% 44%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 8/1-3/14 RV 43% 41%   +2    
Anzalone Liszt Grove 7/20-24/14 LV 46% 48%   +2    
Talk Business Poll 7/22-25/14 LV 44% 42%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Gravis Marketing 7/7-8/14 RV 51% 43%   +8    
Impact Management 6/29/14 RV 47% 43%   +4    
OnMessage 6/11-12/14 LV 47% 40%   +7    
Magellan Strategies 6/4-5/14 LV 49% 45%   +4    
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates 6/3-5/14 LV 51% 43%   +8    
Public Opinion Strategies 5/27-29/14 LV 46% 41%   +5    
Rasmussen 5/27-28/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
OnMessage 5/6-8/14 LV 42% 40%   +2    
NBC News/Marist 4/30-5/4/14 RV 40% 51%   +11    
Public Policy Polling 4/25-27/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
NYT/Kaiser (D) 4/8-15/14 RV 36% 46%   +10    
Harper Polling 4/9-10/14  39% 39%   Tie    
Talk Business/Hendrix College 4/3-4/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
Opinion Research 4/1-8/14 LV 38% 48%   +10    
Anzalone Liszt Grove 3/27-4/2/14 RV 45% 48%   +3    
Hickman Analytics 2/17-20/14 LV 51% 42%   +9    
Impact Management 2/12/14 LV 46% 42%   +4    
Rasmussen 2/4-5/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
Harper Polling 1/26-27/14 LV 42% 36%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 12/13-15/13 RV 44% 44%   Tie    
               
Final Results – Cotton Wins 11/4/2014 56.5% 39.5%   +17.0    
10-Day AVG.   49.0% 38.5%   +10.5    
20-Day AVG.   47.7% 41.2%   +6.5    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
COLORADO *(D) Mark Udall vs. (R) Cory Gardner vs. (I) Steve Shogan GOP TAKEAWAY
         
Poll Poll Date R-Cory Gardner *D-Mark Udall I-Shogan Margin    
Quinnipiac 10/28-11/2/14 LV 45% 43% 6% +2    
Public Policy Polling 11/1-2/14 LV 48% 45%   +3    
YouGov 10/25-31/14 LV 43% 42%   +1    
Denver Post/Survey USA 10/27-29/14 LV 46% 44%   +2    
Vox Populi Polling 10/26-27/14 LV 46% 43%   +3    
Quinnipiac 10/22-27/14 LV 46% 39%   +7    
Rasmussen 10/21-23/14 LV 51% 45%   +6    
NBC News/Marist 10/18-22/14 LV 46% 45%   +1    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 46% 47%   +1    
Quinnipiac 10/15-21/14 LV 46% 41% 5% +5    
USA Today / Suffolk 10/18-21/14 LV 46% 39%   +7    
Monmouth 10/17-20/14 LV 47% 46%   +1    
Reuters/Ipsos 10/13-20/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 10/16-19/14 LV 47% 44%   +3    
Quinnipiac 10/8-13/14 LV 47% 41%   +6    
CNN/Opinion Research 10/9-13/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Denver Post/Survey USA 10/9-12/14 LV 45% 43%   +2    
High Point 9/30-10/9/14 LV 46% 42%   +4    
Fox News 10/4-7/14 LV 43% 37%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 45% 48%   +3    
Rasmussen 9/29-30/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 9/19-21/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Gravis Marketing 9/16-17/14 LV 46% 39%   +7    
Quinnipiac 9/10-15/14 LV 48% 40%   +8    
USA Today / Suffolk 9/13-16/14 LV 43% 42%   +1    
Denver Post/Survey USA 9/8-10/14 LV 42% 46%   +4    
NBC News/Marist 9/2-4/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
Rasmussen 9/3-4/14 LV 42% 44%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 47% 51%   +4    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-20/14 RV 43% 44%   +1    
Quinnipiac 7/10-14/14 RV 44% 42%   +2    
Gravis Marketing 7/8-10/14 RV 47% 43%   +4    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-10/14 RV 41% 48%   +7    
Public Policy Polling 6/25-26/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 5/7-8/14 RV 43% 47%   +4    
Public Policy Polling 4/17-20/14 LV 45% 47%   +2    
               
Final Results – Gardner Wins 11/4/2014 48.5% 46.0%   +2.5    
10-Day AVG.   45.6% 43.4%   +2.2    
20-Day AVG.   46.5% 43.7%   +2.8    
DELAWARE *(D) Chris Coons vs. (R) Kevin Wade DEM HOLD
Poll Poll Date R-Wade D-Coons Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/10-12/14 LV 34% 49%   +15    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 35% 48%   +13    
               
Final Results – Coons Wins 11/4/2014 42.2% 55.8%   +13.6    
AVG.   34.5% 48.5%   +14    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
GEORGIA – *(R) Saxby Chambliss Retiring (R) David Perdue vs. (D) Michelle Nunn vs. (L) Amanda Swafford GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Perdue D-Nunn L-Swafford Margin    
Public Policy Polling 11/1-3/14 LV 46% 45% 5% +1    
WSB/Landmark 11/2/14 LV 50% 46% 2% +4    
Insider Advantage 10/30-11/2/14 LV 48% 45% 3% +3    
Survey USA 10/30-11/2/14 LV 47% 44% 5% +3    
NBC News/Marist 10/27-30/14 LV 48% 44% 3% +4    
YouGov 10/25-31/14 LV 44% 42% 1% +2    
WSB/Landmark 10/29/14 LV 47% 47% 3% Tie    
Vox Populi Polling 10/28/14 LV 48% 43% 3% +5    
Monmouth University 10/26-28/14 LV 49% 41% 3% +8    
Rasmussen 10/25-27/14 LV 48% 48%   Tie    
Survey USA 10/24-27/14 LV 48% 45% 3% +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 47% 44% 1% +3    
Atlanta Journal-Constitution 10/16-23/14 LV 44% 42% 6% +2    
Insider Advantage 10/21-22/14 LV 45% 47% 4% +2    
CNN/Opinion Research 10/19-22/14 LV 44% 47% 5% +3    
WSB/Landmark 10/20-21/14 LV 47% 47%   Tie    
Survey USA 10/17-20/14 LV 44% 46% 4% +2    
Survey USA 10/10-13/14 LV 45% 48% 3% +3    
WSB/Landmark 10/7-9/14 LV 46% 46% 4% Tie    
Survey USA 10/2-6/14 LV 46% 45%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 10/2-5/14 LV 48% 45%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
Rasmussen 9/30-10/1/14 LV 46% 42%   +4    
Insider Advantage 9/29-10/1/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
Survey USA 9/19-22/14 LV 46% 45% 4% +1    
Rasmussen 9/15-16/14 LV 46% 41%   +5    
Insider Advantage 9/10-11/14 LV 50% 40%   +10    
WSB/Landmark 9/9-11/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
Atlanta Journal-Constitution 9/8-11/14 LV 45% 41%   +4    
Survey USA 9/5-8/14 LV 47% 44%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 47% 41%   +6    
WRBL/Ledger-Inquirer 8/24-25/14 LV 43% 45%   +2    
WSB/Landmark 8/20-21/14 LV 40% 47%   +7    
Survey USA 8/14-17/14 LV 50% 41%   +9    
Insider Advantage 8/12-13/14 LV 47% 40%   +7    
Vox Populi Polling 7/27-28/14 LV 49% 40%   +9    
Landmark Communications 7/25/14 LV 43% 47%   +4    
Rasmussen 7/23-24/14 LV 46% 40%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 44%   +6    
Landmark Communications 7/16/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 7/11-13/14 LV 41% 48%   +7    
Survey USA 6/3-5/14 LV 43% 38%   +5    
               
Final Results – Perdue Wins 11/4/2014 53.0% 45.1% 1.9% +7.9    
10-Day AVG.   47.6% 44.2% 3.1% +3.4    
20-Day AVG.   46.9% 44.3% 3.6% +2.6    
HAWAII – (D) Inouye Death; Schatz apptd; *(D) Brian Schatz vs. (R) Cam Cavasso DEM HOLD
                     Special Election        
Poll Poll Date R-Cavasso D-Schatz Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/9-10/14 LV 28% 60%   +32    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 27% 62%   +35    
               
Final Results – Schatz Wins 11/4/2014 27.7% 69.8%   +42.1    
AVG.   27.5% 61.0%   +33.5    
IOWA – *(D) Tom Harkin Retiring (D) Bruce Braley vs. (R) Joni Ernst vs. (L) Doug Butzier vs. (I) Rick Stewart GOP TAKEAWAY
         
Poll Poll Date R-Joni Ernst D-Bruce Braley Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 11/1-3/14 LV 49% 46%   +3    
Quinnipiac 10/28-11/2/14 LV 47% 47%   Tie    
Des Moines Register 10/28-31/14 LV 51% 44%   +7    
YouGov 10/25-31/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
Fox News 10/28-30/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Rasmussen 10/28-30/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
CNN/Opinion Research 10/27-30/14 LV 49% 47%   +2    
Reuters/Ipsos 10/23-29/14 LV 45% 45%   Tie    
Quinnipiac 10/22-27/14 LV 49% 45%   +4    
Loras College 10/21-24/14 LV 44% 45%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 10/18-22/14 LV 49% 46%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 44% 44%   Tie    
Monmouth Univ. 10/18-21/14 LV 47% 46%   +1    
Quinnipiac 10/15-21/14 LV 48% 46%   +2    
USA Today/Suffolk 10/11-14/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
Quinnipiac 10/8-13/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Rasmussen 10/8-10/14 LV 48% 45%   +3    
Des Moines Register 10/3-8/14 LV 47% 46%   +1    
Magellan 10/3/14 LV 50% 41%   +9    
Loras College 10/1-3/14 LV 42% 42%   Tie    
NBC News/Marist 9/27-10/1/14 LV 46% 44%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 43% 44%   +1    
Gravis Marketing 9/29-30/14 LV 50% 41%   +9    
Public Policy Polling 9/25-28/14 LV 45% 43%   +2    
Des Moines Register 9/21-24/14 LV 44% 38%   +6    
Rasmussen 9/17-18/14 LV 43% 43%   Tie    
Fox News 9/14-16/14 LV 41% 41%   Tie    
Quinnipiac 9/10-15/14 LV 50% 44%   +6    
CNN/Opinion Research 9/8-10/14 LV 48% 49%   +1    
Loras College 9/2-5/14 LV 41% 45%   +4    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 42% 44%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 8/28-30/14 LV 45% 43%   +2    
USA Today/Suffolk 8/23-26/14 LV 40% 40%   Tie    
Public Policy Polling 8/22-24/14 RV 40% 41% Butzier 2% +1    
        Stewart 2%      
Rasmussen 8/11-12/14 LV 43% 43%   Tie    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Gravis Marketing 7/17-18/14 LV 43% 44%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-13/14 RV 43% 43%   Tie    
Quinnipiac 6/12-16/14 RV 40% 44%   +4    
Vox Populi Polling 6/4-5/14 LV 49% 44%   +5    
Loras College 6/4-5/14 LV 48% 42%   +6    
Rasmussen 6/4-5/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 5/15-19/14 RV 39% 45%   +6    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 40% 44%   +4    
Final Results – Ernst Wins 11/4/2014 52.2% 43.7%   +8.5    
10-Day AVG.   47.0% 45.4%   +1.6    
20-Day AVG.   46.9% 45.5%   +1.4    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
IDAHO *(R) Jim Risch vs. (D) Nels Mitchell GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Risch D-Mitchell Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 10/9-12/14 LV 50% 32%   +18    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 64% 27%   +37    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 59% 25%   +34    
Rasmussen 5/28-29/14 LV 54% 29%   +25    
               
Final Results – Risch Wins 11/4/2014 65.3% 34.7%   +30.6    
AVG.   57.0% 29.5%   +27.5    
ILLINOIS *(D) Dick Durbin vs.(R) Jim Oberweis DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Oberweis D-Durbin Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 11/1-2/14 LV 41% 51%   +10    
Chicago Sun-Times 10/28/14 LV 39% 49%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 39% 52%   +13    
Chicago Tribune 10/16-21/14 LV 36% 50%   +14    
The Simon Poll/SIU 9/23-10/15/14 LV 37% 47%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 39% 51%   +12    
Rasmussen 9/24-25/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
Chicago Tribune 9/3-12/14 RV 32% 55%   +23    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 38% 50%   +12    
Harper Polling 8/24-27/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Chicago Sun-Times/We Ask America 8/27/14 LV 41% 48%   +7    
Gravis Marketing 8/4-5/14 RV 38% 48%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 43% 51%   +8    
Rasmussen 4/9-10/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
               
Final Results – Durbin Wins 11/4/2014 43.1% 53.1%   +10.0    
AVG.   38.8% 50.5%   +11.7    
KANSAS – (Dem Chad Taylor withdrew *(R) Pat Roberts vs. (D) Chad Taylor (Withdrew, Name OFF ballot)  vs.  GOP HOLD
as Dems hope Former Dem Orman can   (I) Greg Orman (former Democrat) vs. (L) Randall Batson    
unseat incumbent Pat Roberts).              
Poll Poll Date *R-Roberts D-Taylor I-Orman Margin    
Public Policy Polling 11/1-3/14 LV 46%   47% +1    
Public Policy Polling/CAP 10/30-31/14 LV 47%   46% +1    
YouGov 10/25-31/14 LV 38%   37% +1    
Fox News 10/28-30/14 LV 43%   44% +1    
Survey USA 10/22-26/14 LV 42%   44% +2    
NBC News/Marist 10/18-22/14 LV 44%   45% +1    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 42%   38% +4    
Rasmussen 10/20-21/14 LV 44%   49% +5    
Gravis Marketing 10/20-21/14 LV 45%   47% +2    
Monmouth 10/16-19/14 LV 46%   46% Tie    
Remington Research Group 10/9-12/14 LV 48%   46% +2    
Public Policy Polling 10/9-12/14 LV 43%   46% +3    
Fox News 10/4-7/14 LV 44%   39% +5    
CNN/Opinion Research 10/2-6/14 LV 49%   48% +1    
Survey USA 10/2-5/14 LV 42%   47% +5    
Gravis Marketing 9/30-10/1/14 LV 40%   47% +7    
NBC News/Marist 9/27-10/1/14 LV 38%   48% +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 40%   40% Tie    
USA Today/Suffolk 9/27-30/14 LV 41%   46% +5    
Rasmussen 9/16-17/14 LV 40%   45% +5    
Fox News 9/14-16/14 LV 42%   48% +6    
Public Policy Polling 9/11-14/14 LV 34% 6% 41% +7    
Survey USA 9/4-7/14 LV 36% 10% 37% +1    
Survey USA 8/20-23/14 LV 37% 32% 20% +5    
Public Policy Polling 8/14-17/14 LV 43% 39%   +4    
    32% 25% 23% +7    
Rasmussen 8/6-7/14 LV 44% 40%   +4    
Survey USA 7/17-22/14 LV 38% 33% 14% +5    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 54% 37%   +17    
Final Results – Roberts Wins 11/4/2014 53.3%   42.5% +10.8    
10-Day AVG.   42.3%   43.0% +0.7    
20-Day AVG.   43.5%   44.9% +1.4    
KENTUCKY *(R) Mitch McConnell vs. (D) Alison Lundgren Grimes vs. (L) David Patterson GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date *R-McConnell D-Grimes L-Patterson Margin    
Public Policy Polling 10/30-11/1/14 LV 50% 42% 3% +8    
NBC News/Marist 10/27-30/14 LV 50% 41%   +9    
Courier-Journal/Survey USA 10/25-29/14 LV 48% 43% 3% +5    
Public Opinion Strategies 10/25-27/14 LV 50% 43% 4% +7    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 45% 39%   +6    
Voter Consumer Research 10/16-21/14 LV 49% 41%   +8    
Western Kentucky Univ. 10/6-19/14 LV 45% 42%   +3    
Survey USA/Courier-Journal 10/15-19/14 LV 44% 43%   +1    
Rasmussen 10/15-16/14 LV 52% 44%   +8    
Gravis Marketing 10/11-12/14 LV 50% 47%   +3    
Fox News 10/4-7/14 LV 45% 41%   +4    
Survey USA/WHAS 9/30-10/2/14 LV 44% 46% 3% +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 47% 41%   +6    
Gravis Marketing 9/16/14 RV 51% 41%   +10    
Reuters/Ipsos 9/8-12/14 LV 46% 42%   +4    
NBC News/Marist 9/2-4/14 LV 47% 39%   +8    
CNN/Opinion Research 8/28-9/1/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Rasmussen 9/1-2/14 LV 46% 41%   +5    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 47% 42%   +5    
Survey USA 8/25-27/14 LV 46% 42% 5% +4    
Public Policy Polling 8/7-10/14 LV 44% 40% 7% +4    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Survey USA 7/18-23/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Voter Consumer Research 6/22-25/14 LV 49% 42%   +7    
Public Policy Polling 6/20-22/14 RV 46% 48%   +2    
Magellan Strategies 6/4-5/14 LV 46% 49%   +3    
Rasmussen 5/28-29/14 LV 48% 41%   +7    
Wenzel Strategies 5/23-24/14 LV 47% 44%   +3    
Survey USA 5/14-16/14 RV 42% 43%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 4/30-5/6/14 RV 46% 45%   +1    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 46% 45%   +1    
Gravis Marketing 4/15-17/14 RV 43% 36%   +7    
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV 44% 43%   +1    
Public Policy Polling/MoveOn 4/1-2/14 RV 44% 45%   +1    
               
Final Results – McConnell Wins 11/4/2014 56.2% 40.7% 3.1% +15.5    
10-Day AVG.   49.5% 42.3% 3.3% +7.2    
20-Day AVG.   48.6% 41.9% 3.3% +6.7    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
LOUISIANA -Jungle Primary (Nov. 4); *(D) Mary Landrieu vs. (R) Bill Cassidy, Rob Maness, Paul Hollis GOP TAKEAWAY
Candidate wins with 50%+1; If not, top two              
in runoff on Dec. 6, 2014              
Poll Poll Date R-Cassidy D-Landrieu Primary Margin    
Rasmussen 11/16-19/14 LV 56% 41%   +15    
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6)            
               
Vox Populi Polling 11/16-17/14 LV 53% 42%   +11    
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6)            
               
Gravis Marketing 11/12-14/14 LV 59% 38%   +21    
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6)            
               
Magellan Strategies 11/12/14 LV            
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 57% 41%   +16    
               
NBC News/Marist 10/27-30/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 44% +8    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 36%      
        Maness 15%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 50% 45%   +5    
               
               
Public Policy Polling 10/30-11/1/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 43% +8    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 35%      
        Maness 15%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 48% 47%   +1    
               
               
USA Today/Suffolk 10/23-26/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 36% +1    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 35%      
        Maness 11%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 48% 41%   +7    
               
University of New Orleans 10/11-24/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 38% +5    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 33%      
        Maness 7%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 51% 43%   +8    
               
               
               
Rasmussen 10/22-23/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 43% +7    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 36%      
        Maness 13%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 50% 46%   +4    
               
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 37% +5    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 32%      
        Maness 6%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 46% 42%   +4    
               
WAFB/Fox8/Raycom 10/14-19/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 36% +4    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 32%      
        Maness 6%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 43% 40%   +3    
               
Vox Populi Polling 10/13-14/14 LV            
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 48% 44%   +4    
               
Rasmussen 10/13-14/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 41% +3    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 38%      
        Maness 14%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 52% 43%   +9    
               
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 36% +4    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 32%      
        Maness 4%      
               
  RUNOFF (Dec. 6) 47% 41%   +6    
               
Public Policy Polling 9/25-28/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 42% +8    
        Cassidy 34%      
        Maness 12%      
               
  RUNOFF (12/6/14) 48% 45%   +3    
               
CNN/Opinion Research 9/22-25/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 43% +3    
        Cassidy 40%      
        Maness 9%      
               
  RUNOFF (12/6/14) 50% 47%   +3    
               
Fox News 9/14-16/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Cassidy 35% +4    
        Landrieu 31%      
        Maness 7%      
               
  RUNOFF (12/6/14) 51% 38%   +13    
               
Gravis Marketing 9/5-9/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 43% +13    
        Cassidy 30%      
        Maness 14%      
               
  RUNOFF (12/6/14) 45% 45%   Tie    
               
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV     Cassidy 38% +2    
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 36%      
        Maness 10%      
               
Rasmussen 9/2-3/14 LV 44% 41%   +3    
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
               
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 47% 46%   +1    
Rasmussen 7/8-9/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
               
Public Policy Polling 6/26-29/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 44% +17    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 27%      
        Maness 8%      
        Hollis 5%      
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
    47% 47%   Tie    
               
RUNOFF AVG.   56.3% 40.5%   +15.8    
MAINE *(R) Susan Collins vs. (D) Shenna Bellows GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Collins D-Bellows Ind. Margin    
Ipsos/Bangor Daily News 10/6-12/14 LV 56% 31%   +25    
Pan Atlantic SMS 9/23-29/14 LV 68% 25%   +43    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/2-10/1/14 LV 57% 33%   +24    
Portland Press Herald 9/18-25/14 LV 59% 29%   +30    
Rasmussen 9/3-4/14 LV 59% 31%   +28    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 65% 29%   +36    
Univ. of New Hampshire 6/12-18/14 LV 72% 17%   +55    
               
Final Results – Collins Wins 11/4/2014 68.4% 31.6%   +36.8    
AVG.   60.0% 29.5%   +30.5    
MASSACHUSETTS *(D) Ed Markey vs.(R) Brian Herr DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Herr D-Markey Ind. Margin    
Suffolk/Boston Herald 9/25-28/14 LV 30% 54%   +24    
Western NE University 9/20-28/14 LV 34% 56%   +22    
WBUR/MassINC 9/16-21/14 LV 30% 58%   +28    
Rasmussen 9/16-17/14 LV 31% 49%   +18    
Boston Globe 9/14-16/14 LV 27% 53%   +26    
               
Final Results – Markey Wins 11/4/2014 38.0% 62.0%   +24.0    
AVG.   30.4% 54.0%   +23.6    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
MICHIGAN – *(D) Carl Levin Retiring (D) Gary Peters vs. (R) Terri Lynn Land DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date Land Peters Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 11/1-2/14 LV 38% 51%   +13    
EPIC-MRA 10/26-28/14 LV 35% 50%   +15    
Mitchell Research 10/27/14 LV 38% 52%   +14    
Detroit News 10/22-24/14 LV 33% 48%   +15    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 41% 49%   +8    
Rasmussen 10/20-22/14 LV 42% 51%   +9    
EPIC-MRA 10/17-19/14 LV 34% 45%   +11    
Mitchell Research 10/19/14 LV 38% 51%   +13    
Mitchell Research 10/12/14 LV 39% 50%   +11    
Mitchell Research 10/9/14 LV 43% 48%   +5    
Detroit News 10/2-4/14 LV 35% 44%   +9    
Public Policy Polling 10/2-3/14 LV 42% 49%   +7    
Marketing Resource Group 9/30-10/1/14 LV 36% 47%   +11    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 41% 46%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 9/25-29/14 LV 33% 42%   +9    
Mitchell Research 9/29/14 LV 36% 49%   +13    
Public Policy Polling 9/18-19/14 LV 40% 47%   +7    
Rasmussen 9/17-18/14 LV 39% 41%   +2    
We Ask America 9/18-19/14 LV 39% 42%   +3    
Magellan Strategies 9/14-15/14 LV 40% 45%   +5    
Mitchell Research 9/14/14 LV 41% 43%   +2    
Denno Research 9/11-13/14 LV 38% 45%   +7    
USA Today/Suffolk 9/6-10/14 LV 37% 46%   +9    
Public Policy Polling 9/4-7/14 LV 40% 45%   +5    
Detroit News 9/3-5/14 LV 37% 47%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 42%   +1    
Mitchell Research 8/27/14 LV 44% 46%   +2    
EPIC-MRA 8/22-25/14 LV 39% 45%   +6    
Mitchell Research 8/5/14 LV 44% 45%   +1    
Harper Polling 8/4-5/14 LV 44% 45%   +1    
Rasmussen 7/28-29/14 LV 39% 45%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Mitchell Research 7/7-17/14 LV 38% 43%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 7/12-15/14 LV 36% 45%   +9    
Denno Research 7/9-11/14 LV 37% 40%   +3    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-10/14 RV 37% 43%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 6/26-29/14 RV 36% 41%   +5    
Magellan Strategies 6/5-8/14 LV 41% 50%   +9    
Mitchell Research 6/6/14 LV 42% 45%   +3    
Detroit News 5/20-22/14 LV 35% 40%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 5/17-20/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 37% 42%   +5    
Mitchell Research 4/9/14 LV 44% 38%   +6    
Harper Polling 4/7-8/14 43% 40%   +3    
Public Policy Polling 4/3-6/14 RV 36% 41%   +5    
Marketing Resource Group 3/24-28/14 LV 40% 38%   +2    
LE&A / Denno Research 3/8-9/14 LV 37% 40%   +3    
Clarity Campaigns (D) 2/22-23/14 RV 40% 46%   +6    
EPIC-MRA 2/5-11/14 LV 41% 38%   +3    
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel 1/19-20/14 LV 42% 37%   +5    
Rasmussen 1/14-15/14 LV 37% 35%   +2    
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel 1/7-8/14 LV 44% 36%   +8    
Public Policy Polling 12/5-8/13 42% 40%   +2    
LE&A / Denno Research 11/12-14/13 LV 36% 37%   +1    
               
Final Results – Peters Wins 11/4/2014 41.4% 54.6%   +13.2    
AVG.   37.8% 50.2%   +12.4    
MINNESOTA *(D) Al Franken vs.(R) Mike McFadden DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-McFadden *D-Franken Ind. Margin    
KSTP/Survey USA 10/27-30/14 LV 40% 51%   +11    
Star-Tribune/Mason-Dixon 10/20-22/14 LV 39% 48%   +9    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 41% 51%   +10    
KSTP/Survey USA 10/14-16/14 LV 38% 53%   +15    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 42% 49%   +7    
Rasmussen 9/29-30/14 LV 41% 49%   +8    
Star-Tribune/Mason-Dixon 9/8-10/14 LV 36% 49%   +13    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 41% 49%   +8    
KSTP/Survey USA 8/19-21/14 LV 42% 51%   +9    
Rasmussen 8/13-14/14 LV 42% 50%   +8    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 41% 55%   +14    
               
Final Results – Franken Wins 11/4/2014 42.9% 53.2%   +10.3    
AVG.   40.0% 50.0%   +10.0    
MISSISSIPPI *(R) Thad Cochran vs. (D) Travis Childers vs. (Reform Party) Shawn O’Hara GOP HOLD
Poll Poll Date R-*Cochran D-Childers Reform-O’Hara Margin    
Public Policy Polling 7/10-13/14 RV 40% 24% 5% +16    
Rasmussen 6/25-26/14 LV 46% 34%   +12    
               
Final Results – Cochran Wins 11/4/2014 60.4% 37.4% 2.2% +23.0    
AVG.   43.0% 29.0% 5.0% +14.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
MONTANA – *(D) Max Baucus Retiring; (D) Amanda Curtis vs. (R) Steve Daines vs. (L) Roger Roots GOP TAKEAWAY
John Walsh appointed to fill out term;        
Walsh withdrew due to plagiarism claims;                
Amanda Curtis chosen by Democrats to              
replace Walsh as Candidate              
Poll Poll Date R-Daines D-Curtis L-Roots Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 56% 38%   +18    
MSU-Billings 10/6-11/14 LV 47% 31%   +16    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 55% 34%   +21    
Gravis Marketing 9/29-30/14 LV 54% 41%   +13    
Rasmussen 8/18-19/14 LV 55% 35%   +20    
               
Final Results – Daines Wins 11/4/2014 57.9% 40.0% 2.1% +17.9    
AVG.   52.3% 36.7%   +15.6    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
NEBRASKA – *(R) Mike Johanns Retiring (R) Ben Sasse vs. (D) David Domina GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Sasse D-Domina Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 5/14-15/14 51% 34%   +17    
Rasmussen 4/7-8/14 LV 52% 27%   +25    
               
Final Results – Sasse Wins 11/4/2014 64.8% 31.1% 2.1% +33.7    
AVG.   51.5% 30.5%   +21.5    
NEW HAMPSHIRE *(D) Jeanne Shaheen vs.(R) Scott Brown GOP TAKEAWAY
         
Poll Poll Date R-Brown D-Shaheen Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 11/1-3/14 LV 48% 50%   +2    
WMUR/Univ. NH 10/29-11/2/14 LV 48% 49%   +1    
NH1/New England College 10/31-11/1/14 LV 49% 48%   +1    
Rasmussen 10/29-30/14 LV 45% 52%   +7    
American Research Group 10/27-29/14 LV 49% 49%   Tie    
Vox Populi Polling 10/27-28/14 LV 49% 45%   +4    
WMUR/Univ. NH 10/22-26/14 LV 42% 50%   +8    
New England College 10/24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 41% 46%   +5    
American Research Group 10/19-22/14 LV 48% 49%   +1    
Univ. Mass. Lowell/7News 10/15-21/14 LV 46% 49%   +3    
Public Policy Polling 10/20-21/14 LV 45% 49%   +4    
CNN/Opinion Research 10/18-21/14 LV 47% 49%   +2    
Suffolk / Boston Herald 10/16-19/14 LV 46% 49%   +3    
New England College 10/16/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
U. Mass Amherst/WBZ 10/10-15/14 LV 45% 48%   +3    
New England College 10/9/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
High Point 10/4-8/14 LV 46% 48%   +2    
WMUR/Univ. NH 9/29-10/5/14 LV 41% 47%   +6    
New England College 10/3/14 LV 46% 49%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 41% 48%   +7    
American Research Group 9/27-29/14 LV 43% 53%   +10    
New England College 9/26/14 LV 47% 47%   Tie    
New England College 9/19-20/14 LV 43% 50%   +7    
Vox Populi 9/15-16/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
American Research Group 9/12-15/14 LV 45% 50%   +5    
Magellan 9/10-11/14 LV 46% 44%   +2    
New England College 9/10-11/14 LV 40% 51%   +11    
CNN/ORC 9/8-11/14 LV 48% 48%   Tie    
Rasmussen 9/10-11/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 41% 47%   +6    
Univ. of New Hampshire 8/7-17/14  44% 46%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 42% 52%   +10    
Magellan 7/16-17/14 RV 41% 46%   +5    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-13/14 RV 42% 50%   +8    
WMUR/Univ. NH 6/19 – 7/1/14 LV 40% 52%   +12    
American Research Group 6/14-18/14 RV 38% 50%   +12    
Suffolk / Boston Herald 6/14-18/14 LV 39% 49%   +10    
Vox Populi 5/14-15/14 LV 35% 47%   +12    
               
Final Results – Shaheen Wins 11/4/2014 48.4% 51.6%   +3.2    
10-Day AVG.   48.0% 48.8%   +0.8    
20-Day AVG.   46.8% 48.6%   +1.8    
NEW JERSEY – (D) Frank Lautenberg died; *(D) Cory Booker vs. (R) Jeff Bell DEM HOLD
       (D) Cory Booker won  Special Election        
Poll Poll Date R-Bell D-Booker Ind. Margin    
Monmouth Univ. 10/30-11/2/14 LV 40% 54%   +14    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 39% 51%   +12    
Richard Stockton College 10/18-22/14 LV 33% 57%   +24    
Fairleigh Dickinson 10/13-19/14 LV 40% 56%   +16    
Richard Stockton College 10/5-8/14 LV 39% 48%   +9    
Monmouth Univ. 10/2-5/14 LV 38% 53%   +15    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
Quinnipiac 9/25-29/14 LV 40% 51%   +11    
Richard Stockton College 9/5-8/14 LV 36% 49%   +13    
Fairleigh Dickinson 9/1-7/14 RV 29% 42%   +13    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 37% 52%   +15    
Quinnipiac 7/31-8/4/14 RV 37% 47%   +10    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 43% 50%   +7    
Monmouth Univ. 6/26-29/14 RV 23% 43%   +20    
Rasmussen 6/17-18/14 LV 35% 48%   +13    
               
Final Results – Booker Wins 11/4/2014 42.4% 55.8%   +13.4    
AVG.   38.0% 54.5%   +16.5    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
NEW MEXICO *(D) Tom Udall vs.(R) Allen Weh DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Weh *D-Udall Ind. Margin    
Alburquerque Journal 10/21-23/14 LV 43% 50%   +7    
CBS News, NYT, YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 36% 52%   +16    
Gravis Marketing 9/27-10/1/14 LV 36% 53%   +17    
Rasmussen 9/22-23/14 LV 39% 52%   +13    
Alburquerque Journal 9/9-11/14 LV 38% 51%   +13    
CBS News, NYT, YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 36% 54%   +18    
Albuquerque Journal 8/12-14/14 LV 35% 53%   +18    
               
Final Results – Udall Wins 11/4/2014 44.6% 55.4%   +10.8    
AVG.   38.3% 51.7%   +13.4    
NORTH CAROLINA *(D) Kay Hagan vs. (R) Thom Tillis vs. (L) Sean Haugh DEM HOLD
               
Poll Poll Date R-Thom Tillis *D-Kay Hagan L-Haugh Margin    
               
Public Policy Polling 11/1-3/14 LV 44% 46% 5% +2    
Civitas 10/29-30/14 LV 41% 41% 6% Tie    
YouGov 10/25-31/14 LV 41% 44%   +3    
Harper Polling 10/28-30/14 LV 46% 44% 6% +2    
Gravis Marketing 10/29-30/14 LV 47% 46%   +1    
Fox News 10/28-30/14 LV 42% 43% 4% +1    
CNN/Opinion Research 10/27-30/14 LV 46% 48% 4% +2    
Rasmussen 10/28-29/14 LV 46% 47%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 10/28-29/14 LV 46% 47% 4% +1    
Vox Populi Polling 10/26-27/14 LV 48% 43%   +5    
High Point/Survey USA 10/21-25/14 LV 44% 44% 5% Tie    
Elon Univ. 10/21-25/14 LV 41% 45%   +4    
NBC News/Marist 10/19-23/14 LV 43% 43% 7% Tie    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 41% 44% 2% +3    
Survey USA 10/16-20/14 LV 43% 46% 6% +3    
Civitas 10/15-18/14 LV 44% 44%   Tie    
Gravis Marketing 10/16-18/14 LV 48% 43%   +5    
Public Policy Polling 10/16-18/14 LV 43% 46% 5% +3    
Survey USA 10/10-12/14 LV 46% 45%   +1    
High Point 9/30-10/9/14 LV 40% 40%   Tie    
Rasmussen 10/6-7/14 LV 46% 48%   +2    
USA Today/Suffolk 10/4-7/14 LV 45% 47%   +2    
NBC News/Marist 9/27-10/1/14 LV 40% 44% 7% +4    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 45% 46%   +1    
Civitas 9/25-27/14 LV 41% 46% 4% +5    
CNN/Opinion Research 9/22-25/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
High Point 9/13-18/14 LV 40% 42%   +2    
Fox News 9/14-16/14 LV 36% 41%   +5    
Public Policy Polling 9/11-14/14 LV 40% 44% 5% +4    
Elon Univ. 9/5-9/14 LV 41% 45%   +4    
American Insights 9/5-10/14 LV 40% 50%   +10    
Survey USA/Civitas 9/9-10/14 LV 46% 47%   +1    
Rasmussen 9/8-10/14 LV 39% 45%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 42%   +1    
USA Today/Suffolk 8/16-19/14 LV 43% 45%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 8/14-17/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
Rasmussen 8/5-6/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
Civitas 7/28-29/14 RV 45% 43%   +2    
Gravis Marketing 7/22-27/14 LV 41% 44%   +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-20/14 RV 34% 41% 8% +7    
Civitas 6/18-22/14 RV 36% 42% 9% +6    
Public Policy Polling 6/12-15/14 RV 38% 42%   +4    
Civitas 5/20-22/14 RV 46% 41%   +5    
Public Policy Polling 5/9-11/14 LV 36% 38% 11% +2    
Rasmussen 5/7-8/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Magellan 4/14-15/14 LV 43% 43%   Tie    
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV 40% 42%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 4/3-6/14 RV 41% 43%   +2    
Survey USA 3/27-31/14 RV 46% 45%   +1    
               
Final Results – Tillis Wins 11/4/2014 49.0% 47.3% 3.7% +1.7    
10-Day AVG.   44.6% 44.7% 5.0% +0.1    
20-Day AVG.   44.1% 44.5% 5.3% +0.4    
OKLAHOMA – *R – Tom Coburn *(R) James Lankford vs. (D) Connie Johnson GOP HOLD
       Retiring (Special Election)        
Poll Poll Date R-Lankford D-Johnson Ind. Margin    
Sooner Poll/News on 6 9/27-29/14 LV 56% 28%   +28    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 61% 28%   +33    
Rasmussen 8/27-28/14 LV 58% 29%   +29    
               
Final Results – Lankford Wins 11/4/2014 67.9% 29.0%   +38.9    
AVG.   58.3% 28.3%   +30.0    
OKLAHOMA *(R) Jim Inhofe vs. (D) Matt Silverstein GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Inhofe D-Silverstein Ind. Margin    
Sooner Poll/News on 6 9/27-29/14 LV 56% 32%   +24    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 60% 28%   +32    
Rasmussen 7/15-16/14 LV 58% 27%   +31    
               
Final Results – Inhofe Wins 11/4/2014 68.0% 28.5%   +39.5    
AVG.   58.0% 30.0%   +28.0    
               
OREGON *(D) Jeff Merkley vs.(R) Monica Wehby DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Wehby *D-Merkley Ind. Margin    
The Oregonian/Elway 10/26-27/14 LV 30% 49%   +19    
Survey USA 10/23-27/14 LV 32% 53%   +21    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 39% 51%   +12    
Survey USA 10/16-19/14 LV 32% 53%   +21    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 39% 52%   +13    
Survey USA 9/22-24/14 LV 32% 52%   +20    
The Polling Company 9/9-11/14 LV 34% 42%   +8    
Rasmussen 9/2-3/14 LV 35% 48%   +13    
Survey USA 8/1-5/14 LV 33% 52%   +19    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 41% 55%   +14    
Survey USA 6/5-9/14 LV 32% 50%   +18    
Public Policy Polling 5/22-27/14 RV 36% 50%   +14    
Rasmussen 5/21-22/14 LV 37% 47%   +10    
Vox Populi Polling 4/28-30/14 LV 45% 41%   +4    
Benenson Strategy Group 4/14-17/14 LV 32% 52%   +20    
Harper Polling 4/1-2/14 LV 34% 46%   +12    
               
Final Results – Merkley Wins 11/4/2014 37.3% 55.8%   +18.5    
AVG.   33.7% 51.0%   +17.3    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
RHODE ISLAND *(D) Jack Reed vs.(R) Mark Zaccaria DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Zaccaria D-Reed Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 9/23-25/14 LV 26% 61%   +35    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 32% 52%   +20    
               
Final Results – Reed Wins 11/4/2014 29.3% 70.7%   +41.4    
AVG.   29.0% 56.5%   +27.5    
SOUTH CAROLINA *(R) Lindsey Graham vs. (D) Brad Hutto vs. (I) Thomas Ravenel GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date *R-Lindsey Graham D-Brad Hutto I-Ravenel Margin    
Winthrop Univ. 9/21-28/14 LV 46% 28% 8% +18    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 42% 29%   +13    
Rasmussen 7/9-10/14 LV 49% 30%   +19    
               
Final Results – Graham Wins 11/4/2014 54.5% 38.9% 3.9% +15.6    
AVG.   44.0% 28.5% 8.0% +15.5    
SOUTH CAROLINA – *(R) Tim Scott *(R) Tim Scott vs. (D) Joyce Dickerson GOP HOLD
(Jim DeMint Resigned, Scott Appointed)        
Poll Poll Date *R-Tim Scott D-Joyce Dickerson Ind. Margin    
Winthrop Univ. 9/21-28/14 LV 52% 32%   +20    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 54% 33%   +21    
Rasmussen 7/9-10/14 LV 53% 31%   +22    
               
Final Results – Scott Wins 11/4/2014 61.2% 37.1% 1.8% +24.1    
AVG.   53.0% 32.5%   +20.5    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
SOUTH DAKOTA -  (D) Rick Weiland vs. (R) Gov. Mike Rounds vs. (I) Larry Pressler GOP TAKEAWAY
*(D) Tim Johnson Retiring        
Poll Poll Date R-Rounds D-Weiland I-Pressler Margin    
Monmouth University 10/24-27/14 LV 45% 31% 19% +14    
Rasmussen 10/22-26/14 LV 45% 31% 21% +14    
Survey USA 10/21-26/14 LV 43% 32% 19% +11    
Mason-Dixon 10/20-23/14 LV 42% 33% 13% +9    
NBC News/Marist 10/19-23/14 LV 43% 29% 16% +14    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 38% 25% 17% +13    
Harper 10/9-11/14 LV 37% 33% 23% +4    
Survey USA 10/1-5/14 LV 35% 28% 32% +3    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 42% 27% 12% +15    
Nielson Brothers 9/21-25/14 LV 39% 26% 24% +13    
Survey USA 9/3-7/14 LV 39% 28% 25% +11    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 43% 29% 6% +14    
Rasmussen 6/4-5/14 LV 44% 29% 18% +15    
               
Final Results – Rounds Wins 11/4/2014 50.4% 29.5% 17.1% +20.9    
AVG.   41.9% 30.6% 18.3% +11.3    
TENNESSEE *(R) Lamar Alexander (D) Gordon Ball GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Alexander D-Ball Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 4/29-30/14 LV Alexander 51% Ball 25%   +26    
               
               
Final Results – Alexander Wins 11/4/2014 61.9% 31.8%   +30.1    
AVG.              
TEXAS   *(R) John Cornyn vs. (D) David Alameel vs. (L) Kathie Glass GOP HOLD
               
Poll Poll Date R-Cornyn D-Alameel L-Glass Margin    
Univ. Texas/Texas Tribune 10/10-19/14 LV 57% 31%   +26    
Rasmussen 10/1-2/14 LV 50% 29%   +21    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 55% 35%   +20    
Texas Lyceum 9/11-25/14 LV 48% 30%   +18    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 55% 34%   +21    
Rasmussen 8/4-5/14 LV 47% 29%   +18    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 55% 38%   +17    
Univ. Texas/Texas Tribune 5/30 – 6/8/14 RV 36% 25% 3% +11    
Public Policy Polling 4/10-13/14 RV 49% 32%   +17    
               
Final Results – Cornyn Wins 11/4/2014 61.6% 34.4%   +27.2    
AVG.   54.0% 31.7%   +22.3    
VIRGINIA *(D) Mark Warner vs.(R) Ed Gillespie vs. (L) Robert Sarvis DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date Gillespie-R Warner-D Sarvis (Lib) Margin    
Public Policy Polling 10/29-30/14 LV 40% 49% 5% +9    
Christopher Newport Univ. 10/23-29/14 LV 44% 51% 2% +7    
Vox Populi Polling 10/27-28/14 LV 40% 44% 5% +4    
Roanoke College 10/20-25/14 LV 35% 47%   +12    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 39% 49%   +10    
Univ. of Mary Washington 10/1-6/14 LV 37% 47%   +10    
Christopher Newport Univ. 9/29-10/5/14 LV 39% 51%   +12    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 9/20-10/1/14 LV 39% 51%   +12    
Public Policy Polling 9/22-23/14 LV 37% 49%   +12    
Quinnipiac 9/17-22/14 LV 41% 50%   +9    
Roanoke College 9/13-19/14 LV 29% 49%   +20    
Christopher Newport Univ. 9/2-7/14 LV 31% 53% 5% +22    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 39% 51%   +12    
Hampton Univ. 7/27-30/14 LV 32% 55%   +23    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 43% 53%   +10    
Roanoke College 7/14-19/14 RV 22% 47% 5% +25    
Rasmussen 6/11-12/14 LV 36% 53%   +17    
Public Policy Polling/MoveOn 4/1-2/14 RV 35% 49%   +14    
Quinnipiac 3/19-24/14 RV 31% 46% 6% +15    
Roanoke College 2/22-28/14 RV 29% 56%   +27    
Harper Polling 2/4-5/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Rasmussen 1/20-21/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
Christopher Newport Univ. 1/15-22/14 RV 30% 50%   +20    
Roanoke College 1/13-17/14 RV 21% 50%   +29    
               
Final Results – Warner Wins 11/4/2014 48.4% 49.2% 2.5% +0.8    
AVG.   39.6% 48.0% 4.0% +8.4    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
WEST VIRGINIA -  (D) Natalie Tennant vs. (R) Shelley Moore Capito GOP TAKEAWAY
(D) Jay Rockefeller Retiring        
Poll Poll Date R-Capito D-Tennant Ind. Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 10/16-23/14 LV 56% 34%   +22    
Rasmussen 9/30-10/1/14 LV 50% 39%   +11    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 8/18-9/2/14 LV 55% 32%   +23    
West Virginia Poll 8/15-23/14 LV 54% 37%   +17    
Rasmussen 8/19-20/14 LV 50% 33%   +17    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 51% 43%   +8    
West Virginia Poll 5/19-22/14 LV 49% 38%   +11    
Rasmussen 5/14-15/14 LV 48% 39%   +9    
Rasmussen 2/19-20/14 LV 49% 35%   +14    
Harper Polling 9/24-25/13 LV 51% 34%   +17    
               
Final Results – Capito Wins 11/4/2014 62.1% 34.5%   +27.6    
AVG.   53.3% 36.7%   +16.6    
WYOMING *(R) Mike Enzi vs. (D) Charlie Hardy GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Enzi D-Hardy Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 8/20-21/14 LV 63% 27%   +36    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 68% 23%   +45    
               
Final Results – Enzi Wins 11/4/2014 72.3% 17.6%   +54.7    
AVG.   65.5% 25.0%   +40.5