2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Election Races – Polls and Projections

UPDATED 7/30/14 - Added five new polls. Strong poll for David Perdue in Georgia showing him up +9 over Democrat Michelle Nunn. GOP’s Bill Cassidy +1 over Landrieu in LA. Peters up in Michigan. Still working on adding all the CBS News/NYT/YouGov Polls. Will keep adding over the next couple of days. . . (Details in table below).

We currently rate seven races in the “Tossup” category (GA, NC, AK, CO, KY, LA, IA), five Democrat seats and two GOP seats, with an additional four seats already projected as “GOP Takeaways” (AR, MT, SD, WV). Republicans need a net six takeaways to regain control of the Senate. Polls and projections on the thirty-five 2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Election races. Get the latest information on the Senate contests here.

The Democrats have a five-seat majority (55-45) when you include the two “Independents” who caucus with them. That means Republicans will have to net gain six seats to retake control of the U.S. Senate (If it is 50-50 with the two Independents voting with the Democrats, it would remain in Democratic control because the Vice-President would cast the tie-breaking vote). There are 35 races, 21 of them seats currently held by Democrats, and 14 by Republicans.

The 35 races (including special elections) are listed in the table below, with our latest projection for each race on the right column of the table. We have started listing polls on races where available. Notice that General Election matchup polls are listed, and also Primary Polls below the same poll if available. Averages are only listed for races already shaped up to be head-to-head between two candidates. As nominees for each party are selected, more averages will appear. Check back often for polling updates!

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2014 U.S. Senate Midterm Races – Polls & Projections
               
Current U.S. Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 45, Independents 2 (Caucus with Dems)        
2014 Seats Contested: 21 Democrat, 14 Republican            
Current 2014 Senate Projection: Democrats 44, Republicans 47, Independents 2, Tossup 7
Totals = 35 Contested Races – GOP Hold 12, Democrat Hold 12, Tossup 7, GOP Takeaway 4, Dem Takeaway 0
MOST RECENT POLLS ADDED
UPDATED 7/30/14              
GEORGIA – Vox Populi Polling (7/27-28/14): R-David Perdue 49%, D-Michelle Nunn 40%
GEORGIA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-David Perdue 50%, D-Michelle Nunn 44%
GEORGIA – Landmark Communications (7/25/14): D-Michelle Nunn 47%, R-David Perdue 43%
MICHIGAN – Rasmussen (7/28-29/14): D-Gary Peters 45%, R-Terri Lynn Land 39%
LOUISIANA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Bill Cassidy 47%, *D-Sen. Mary Landrieu 46%
UPDATED 7/29/14              
NORTH CAROLINA – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Thom Tillis 48%, *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 47%
ARKANSAS – Talk Business Poll (7/22-25/14): R-Tom Cotton 44%, *D-Sen. Mark Pryor 42%
ARKANSAS – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Tom Cotton 50%, *D-Sen. Mark Pryor 46%
MICHIGAN – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): R-Terri Lynn Land 48%, D-Gary Peters 47%
MICHIGAN – Mitchell Research (7/7-17/14): D-Gary Peters 43%, R-Terri Lynn Land 38%
COLORADO – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *D-Sen. Mark Udall 51%, R-Cory Gardner 47%
UPDATED 7/28/14              
KENTUCKY – CBS News/NYT/YouGov (7/5-24/14): *R-Sen. Mitch McConnell 50%, D-Alison Lundergan Grimes 46%
KENTUCKY – Survey USA (7/18-23/14): *R-Sen. Mitch McConnell 47%, D-Alison Lundergan Grimes 45%
GEORGIA – Rasmussen (7/23-24/14): R-David Perdue 46%, D-Michelle Nunn 40%
KANSAS – Survey USA (7/17-22/14): GOP PRIMARY – Sen. Pat Roberts +20
KANSAS – Survey USA (7/17-22/14): *R-Sen. Pat Roberts 38%, D-Chad Taylor 33%, I-Greg Orman 14%, L-Randall Batson 5%
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Magellan (7/16-17/14): *D-Jeanne Shaheen 46%, R-Scott Brown 41%
UPDATED 7/24/14              
MONTANA – Gravis Marketing (7/20-22/14): R-Steve Daines 45%, *D-Sen. John Walsh 41%, L-Roger Roots 6%
VIRGINIA – Roanoke College (7/14-19/14): *D-Sen. Mark Warner 47%, R-Ed Gillespie 22%, L-Robert Sarvis 5%
COLORADO – PPP (7/17-20/14): *D-Sen. Mark Udall 44%, R-Cory Gardner 43%
NORTH CAROLINA – PPP (7/17-20/14): *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 41%, R-Thom Tillis 34%, L-Sean Haugh 8%
IOWA – Gravis Marketing (7/17-18/14): D-Bruce Braley 44%, R-Joni Ernst 43%
UPDATED 7/22/14              
GEORGIA – Landmark Communications (7/16/14): GOP RUNOFF – Jack Kingston 48%, David Perdue 41%
GEORGIA – Landmark Communications (7/16/14): GENERAL ELECTION – D-Nunn 49%, R-Kingston 41%; D-Nunn 48%, R-Perdue 42%
MONTANA – PPP (7/17-18/14): R-Steve Daines 46%, D-John Walsh 39%
OKLAHOMA – Rasmussen (7/15-16/14): *R-Sen. Jim Inhofe 58%, D-Matt Silverstein 27%
MICHIGAN – EPIC-MRA (7/12-15/14): D-Peters 45%, R-Land 36%
GEORGIA – Insider Advantage (7/15-16/14): GOP RUNOFF – Jack Kingston 46%, David Perdue 41%
COLORADO – Quinnipiac (7/10-14/14): R-Cory Gardner 44%, *D-Sen. Mark Udall 42%
Updated 7/16/14              
IOWA – NBC News/Marist (7/7-13/14): R-Joni Ernst 43%, D-Bruce Braley 43%
NEW HAMPSHIRE – NBC News/Marist (7/7-13/14): *D-Sen. Jeanne Shaheen 50%, R-Scott Brown 42%
MICHIGAN – Denno Research (7/9-11/14): D-Gary Peters 40%, R-Terri Lynn Land 37%
MISSISSIPPI – PPP (7/10-13/14): *R-Sen. Thad Cochran +16
Updated 7/15/14              
COLORADO – NBC News/Marist (7/7-10/14): *D-Sen. Mark Udall 48%, R-Cory Gardner 41%
MICHIGAN – NBC News/Marist (7/7-10/14): D-Gary Peters 43%, R-Terri Lynn Land 37%
ARKANSAS – Gravis Marketing (7/7-8/14): R-Tom Cotton 51%, *D-Sen. Mark Pryor 43%
GEORGIA – PPP (7/9-12/14): GOP RUNOFF – Jack Kingston 47%, David Perdue 41%
GEORGIA – PPP (7/11-13/14): D-Michelle Nunn 44%, R-Jack Kingston 41%; D-Michelle Nunn 48%, R-David Perdue 41%
Updated 7/14/14              
SOUTH CAROLINA – Rasmussen (7/9-10/14): *R-Sen. Tim Scott 53%, D-Joyce Dickerson 31%
SOUTH CAROLINA – Rasmussen (7/9-10/14): *R-Sen. Lindsey Graham 49%, D-Brad Hutto 30%
Updated 7/11/14              
GEORGIA – Insider Advantage (7/7-9/14): GOP PRIMARY RUNOFF (July 22) – Kingston 42%, Perdue 41%
LOUISIANA – Rasmussen (7/8-9/14): *D-Sen. Mary Landrieu 46%, R-Bill Cassidy 43%
ARKANSAS – Impact Management (6/29/14): R-Tom Cotton 47%, *D-Sen. Mark Pryor 43%
NEW HAMPSHIRE – WMUR/UNH (6/19 - 7/1/14): *D-Sen. Jeanne Shaheen 52%, R-Scott Brown 40%
Updated 7/5/14              
NEW JERSEY – Monmouth Univ. (6/26-29/14): *D-Sen. Cory Booker 43%, R-Jeff Bell 23%
LOUISIANA – PPP (6/26-29/14: General Election Runoff – *D-Sen. Mary Landrieu 47%, R-Bill Cassidy 47%
Updated 7/1/14              
MICHIGAN – PPP (6/26-29/14): D-Gary Peters 41%, R-Terri Lynn Land 36%
COLORADO – PPP (6/25-26/14): *D-Sen. Mark Udall 43%, R-Cory Gardner 42%
GEORGIA – Wilson Perkins Allen (6/22-24/14): GOP PRIMARY RUNOFF – Perdue 45%, Kingston 44%
NORTH CAROLINA – Civitas (6/18-22/14): *D-Sen. Kay Hagan 42%, R-Thom Tillis 36%, L-Sean Haugh 9%
MISSISSIPPI – Rasmussen (6/25-26/14): R-*Sen. Thad Cochran 46%, D-Travis Childers 34%
KENTUCKY – Voter Consumer Research (6/22-25/14): R-*Sen. Mitch McConnell 49%, D-Alison Grimes 42%
KENTUCKY – PPP (6/20-22/14): D-Alison Grimes 48%, *R-Sen. Mitch McConnell 46%
*Denotes Incumbent Senator              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
               
ALABAMA *(R) Jeff Sessions vs. (D) Undetermined GOP HOLD
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
ALASKA *(D) Mark Begich vs. (R) Joe Miller, Mead Treadwell, TOSSUP
  Dan Sullivan,  Sarah Palin?, Kathleen Tonn?, John Jaramillo?    
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Vox Populi Polling 6/5-9/14 LV Sullivan 32%     +9    
  GOP PRIMARY Treadwell 23%          
  (August 19) Miller 15%          
               
Public Policy Polling 5/5-11/14 RV Sullivan 37% Begich 42%   +5    
    Treadwell 33% Begich 41%   +8    
    Miller 27% Begich 43%   +16    
               
  GOP PRIMARY Sullivan 40%     +14    
    Treadwell 26%          
    Miller 14%          
               
Rasmussen 3/19-20/14 LV Treadwell, 47% Begich, 44%   +3    
    Sullivan, 44% Begich, 44%   Tie    
               
Hays Research 2/9/14 LV Sullivan, 33% Begich, 45% Miller, 10% +12    
               
Harper Polling 1/20-22/14 LV Treadwell, 47% Begich, 41%   +6    
    Sullivan, 47% Begich, 41%   +6    
    Miller, 32% Begich, 51%   +19    
               
Public Policy Polling 1/30-2/1/14 RV Sullivan, 37% Begich, 41%   +4    
    Palin, 40% Begich, 44%   +4    
    Treadwell, 37% Begich, 43%   +6    
    Miller, 25% Begich, 45%   +20    
               
AVG.              
ARKANSAS *(D) Mark Pryor vs. (R) Tom Cotton GOP TAKEAWAY
Poll Poll Date Cotton-R Pryor-D Ind. Margin    
Talk Business Poll 7/22-25/14 LV 44% 42%   +2    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Gravis Marketing 7/7-8/14 RV 51% 43%   +8    
Impact Management 6/29/14 RV 47% 43%   +4    
OnMessage 6/11-12/14 LV 47% 40%   +7    
Magellan Strategies 6/4-5/14 LV 49% 45%   +4    
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates 6/3-5/14 LV 51% 43%   +8    
Public Opinion Strategies 5/27-29/14 LV 46% 41%   +5    
Rasmussen 5/27-28/14 LV 47% 43%   +4    
OnMessage 5/6-8/14 LV 42% 40%   +2    
NBC News/Marist 4/30-5/4/14 RV 40% 51%   +11    
Public Policy Polling 4/25-27/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
NYT/Kaiser (D) 4/8-15/14 RV 36% 46%   +10    
Harper Polling 4/9-10/14  39% 39%   Tie    
Talk Business/Hendrix College 4/3-4/14 LV 43% 46%   +3    
Opinion Research 4/1-8/14 LV 38% 48%   +10    
Anzalone Liszt Grove 3/27-4/2/14 RV 45% 48%   +3    
Hickman Analytics 2/17-20/14 LV 51% 42%   +9    
Impact Management 2/12/14 LV 46% 42%   +4    
Rasmussen 2/4-5/14 LV 45% 40%   +5    
Harper Polling 1/26-27/14 LV 42% 36%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 12/13-15/13 RV 44% 44%   Tie    
               
AVG.   47.8% 42.8%   +5.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
COLORADO *(D) Mark Udall vs. (R) Cory Gardner vs. (L) Gaylon Kent TOSSUP
         
Poll Poll Date R-Cory Gardner *D-Mark Udall L-Kent Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 47% 51%   +4    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-20/14 RV 43% 44%   +1    
Quinnipiac 7/10-14/14 RV 44% 42%   +2    
Gravis Marketing 7/8-10/14 RV 47% 43% 6% +4    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-10/14 RV 41% 48%   +7    
Public Policy Polling 6/25-26/14 LV 42% 43%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 5/7-8/14 RV 43% 47%   +4    
Public Policy Polling 4/17-20/14 LV 45% 47%   +2    
               
AVG.   44.4% 45.6% 6.0% +1.2    
DELAWARE *(D) Chris Coons vs. (R) Christine O’Donnell?, Tom Kovach? DEM HOLD
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
GEORGIA – *(R) Saxby Chambliss Retiring (R) David Perdue vs. (D) Michelle Nunn TOSSUP
         
Poll Poll Date R-Perdue D-Nunn Ind. Margin    
Vox Populi Polling 7/27-28/14 LV 49% 40%   +9    
Landmark Communications 7/25/14 LV 43% 47%   +4    
Rasmussen 7/23-24/14 LV 46% 40%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 44%   +6    
Landmark Communications 7/16/14 LV 42% 48%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 7/11-13/14 LV 41% 48%   +7    
Survey USA 6/3-5/14 LV 43% 38%   +5    
               
AVG.   45.8% 43.8%   +2.0    
HAWAII – (D) Inouye Death; Schatz apptd; *(D) Brian Schatz, Colleen Hanabusa vs. (R) Charles Djou? DEM HOLD
                     Special Election        
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG 5/18-19/14 LV            
  DEMOCRAT PRIMARY Schatz 44%   +5    
  (August 9)   Hanabusa 39%        
               
Honolulu Civil Beat / MRG 2/12-15/14 LV            
  DEMOCRAT PRIMARY Hanabusa, 40%   Tie    
      Schatz, 40%        
Honolulu Star-Advertiser 2/1-11/14 RV            
  DEMOCRAT PRIMARY Hanabusa, 48%   +8    
      Schatz, 40%        
               
AVG.              
IOWA – *(D) Tom Harkin Retiring (D) Bruce Braley vs. (R) Joni Ernst TOSSUP
         
Poll Poll Date R-Joni Ernst D-Bruce Braley Ind. Margin    
Gravis Marketing 7/17-18/14 LV 43% 44%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-13/14 RV 43% 43%   Tie    
Quinnipiac 6/12-16/14 RV 40% 44%   +4    
Vox Populi Polling 6/4-5/14 LV 49% 44%   +5    
Loras College 6/4-5/14 LV 48% 42%   +6    
Rasmussen 6/4-5/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 5/15-19/14 RV 39% 45%   +6    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 40% 44%   +4    
AVG.   42.0% 43.7%   +1.7    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
IDAHO *(R) Jim Risch vs. (D) Nels Mitchell GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Risch D-Mitchell Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 5/28-29/14 LV 54% 29%   +25    
               
AVG.              
ILLINOIS *(D) Dick Durbin vs.(R) Chad Koppie, Jim Oberweis, Doug Truax DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 4/9-10/14 LV Oberweis, 37% Durbin, 51%   +14    
               
Chicago Tribune/WGN 2/5-8/14 RV            
  GOP PRIMARY Oberweis, 52%     +37    
    Truax, 15%          
               
Public Policy Polling 11/22-25/13 Koppie, 35% Durbin, 52%   +17    
    Oberweis, 36% Durbin, 51%   +15    
    Truax, 33% Durbin, 51%   +18    
               
AVG.              
KANSAS *(R) Pat Roberts, Milton Wolf vs. (D) Chad Taylor, Kathleen Sebelius? GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Survey USA 7/17-22/14 LV Roberts 50%     +20    
  GOP PRIMARY Wolf 30%           
  (August 5) Smith 6%          
    Zahnter 3%          
               
  7/17-22/14 LV Roberts 38% Taylor 33% I-Orman 14% +5    
        L-Batson 4%      
               
Rasmussen 4/16-17/14 LV Roberts, 54% Sebelius, 37%   +17    
    Roberts, 50% Taylor, 32%   +18    
               
Public Policy Polling 2/18-20/14 RV Roberts, 48% Taylor, 32%   +16    
    Roberts, 52% Sebelius, 38%   +14    
    Wolf, 33% Taylor, 32%   +1    
    Wolf, 46% Sebelius, 39%   +7    
               
  GOP PRIMARY Roberts, 49%     +26    
    Wolf, 23%          
               
               
AVG.              
KENTUCKY *(R) Mitch McConnell vs. (D) Alison Lundgren Grimes  TOSSUP
         
Poll Poll Date *R-McConnell D-Grimes Ind. Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 50% 46%   +4    
Survey USA 7/18-23/14 LV 47% 45%   +2    
Voter Consumer Research 6/22-25/14 LV 49% 42%   +7    
Public Policy Polling 6/20-22/14 RV 46% 48%   +2    
Magellan Strategies 6/4-5/14 LV 46% 49%   +3    
Rasmussen 5/28-29/14 LV 48% 41%   +7    
Wenzel Strategies 5/23-24/14 LV 47% 44%   +3    
Survey USA 5/14-16/14 RV 42% 43%   +1    
NBC News/Marist 4/30-5/6/14 RV 46% 45%   +1    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 46% 45%   +1    
Gravis Marketing 4/15-17/14 RV 43% 36%   +7    
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV 44% 43%   +1    
Public Policy Polling/MoveOn 4/1-2/14 RV 44% 45%   +1    
               
AVG.   48.0% 45.3%   +2.7    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
LOUISIANA -Jungle Primary (Nov. 4); *(D) Mary Landrieu vs. (R) Bill Cassidy, Rob Maness, Paul Hollis TOSSUP
Candidate wins with 50%+1; If not, top two              
in runoff on Dec. 6, 2014              
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Primary Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV Cassidy 47% Landrieu 46%   +1    
Rasmussen 7/8-9/14 LV Cassidy 43% Landrieu 46%   +3    
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
               
Public Policy Polling 6/26-29/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 44% +17    
  (Nov. 4)     Cassidy 27%      
        Maness 8%      
        Hollis 5%      
  RUNOFF (12/6/14)            
    Cassidy 47% Landrieu 47%   Tie    
               
Magellan Strategies 6/5-8/14 LV Cassidy 50% Landrieu 44%   +6    
Southern Media/Opinion Research 4/28-30/14 LV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 36% +1    
        Cassidy 35%      
        Maness 7%      
        Hollis 4%      
               
Public Policy Polling 4/14-15/14             
  RUNOFF (12/6/14) Cassidy 44% Landrieu 42%   +2    
               
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV            
  JUNGLE PRIMARY     Landrieu 42% +24    
        Cassidy 18%      
        Hollis 5%      
        Maness 4%      
               
AVG.              
MAINE *(R) Susan Collins vs. (D) Shenna Bellows GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Collins D-Bellows Ind. Margin    
Univ. of New Hampshire 6/12-18/14 LV 72% 17%   +55    
               
AVG.              
MASSACHUSETTS *(D) Ed Markey vs.(R) Gabriel Gomez? DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
MICHIGAN – *(D) Carl Levin Retiring (D) Gary Peters vs. (R) Terri Lynn Land DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date Land Peters Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/28-29/14 LV 39% 45%   +6    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Mitchell Research 7/7-17/14 LV 38% 43%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 7/12-15/14 LV 36% 45%   +9    
Denno Research 7/9-11/14 LV 37% 40%   +3    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-10/14 RV 37% 43%   +6    
Public Policy Polling 6/26-29/14 RV 36% 41%   +5    
Magellan Strategies 6/5-8/14 LV 41% 50%   +9    
Mitchell Research 6/6/14 LV 42% 45%   +3    
Detroit News 5/20-22/14 LV 35% 40%   +5    
EPIC-MRA 5/17-20/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV 37% 42%   +5    
Mitchell Research 4/9/14 LV 44% 38%   +6    
Harper Polling 4/7-8/14 43% 40%   +3    
Public Policy Polling 4/3-6/14 RV 36% 41%   +5    
Marketing Resource Group 3/24-28/14 LV 40% 38%   +2    
LE&A / Denno Research 3/8-9/14 LV 37% 40%   +3    
Clarity Campaigns (D) 2/22-23/14 RV 40% 46%   +6    
EPIC-MRA 2/5-11/14 LV 41% 38%   +3    
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel 1/19-20/14 LV 42% 37%   +5    
Rasmussen 1/14-15/14 LV 37% 35%   +2    
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel 1/7-8/14 LV 44% 36%   +8    
Public Policy Polling 12/5-8/13 42% 40%   +2    
LE&A / Denno Research 11/12-14/13 LV 36% 37%   +1    
               
AVG.   38.7% 43.4%   +4.7    
MINNESOTA *(D) Al Franken vs.(R) Mike McFadden, Jim Abeler, Julianne Ortman, Chris Dahlberg, DEM HOLD
    Monti Moreno    
Poll Poll Date GOP Franken Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 6/12-15/14 RV McFadden 38% Franken 49%   +11    
Survey USA 6/5-9/14 LV McFadden 42% Franken 48%   +6    
Magellan Strategies 3/25-26/14 RV Ortman, 41% Franken, 44%   +3    
    McFadden, 38% Franken, 44%   +6    
               
Survey USA 2/25-27/14 RV McFadden, 40% Franken, 50%   +10    
    Dahlberg, 41% Franken, 49%   +8    
    Abeler, 37% Franken, 49%   +12    
    Shudlick, 36% Franken, 50%   +14    
    Moreno, 36% Franken, 50%   +14    
               
Public Policy Polling 10/27-29/13 Abeler, 39% Franken, 50%   +11    
    Dahlberg, 39% Franken, 49%   +10    
    McFadden, 38% Franken, 49%   +11    
    Ortman, 37% Franken, 49%   +12    
    Moreno, 36% Franken, 49%   +13    
               
AVG.              
MISSISSIPPI *(R) Thad Cochran vs. (D) Travis Childers vs. (Reform Party) Shawn O’Hara GOP HOLD
Poll Poll Date R-*Cochran D-Childers Reform-O’Hara Margin    
Public Policy Polling 7/10-13/14 RV 40% 24% 5% +16    
Rasmussen 6/25-26/14 LV 46% 34%   +12    
               
AVG.   43.0% 29.0% 5.0% +14.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
MONTANA – *(D) Max Baucus Retiring; *(D) Sen. John Walsh vs. (R) Champ Edmunds, Steve Daines vs. (L) Roger Roots GOP TAKEAWAY
John Walsh appointed to fill out term        
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Gravis Marketing 7/20-22/14 LV Daines 45% Walsh 41% (L) Roots 6% +4    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-18/14 RV Daines 46% Walsh 39%   +7    
Rasmussen 6/9-10/14 LV Daines 53% Walsh 35%   +18    
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV Daines 49% Walsh 37%   +12    
               
Harper Polling 4/7-8/14 Daines 44% Bohlinger 33%   +11    
    Daines 42% Walsh 35%   +7    
               
Rasmussen 3/17-18/14 LV Daines, 51% Walsh, 37%   +14    
               
Harper Polling 1/20-22/14 LV Daines, 43% Walsh, 29%   +14    
    Daines, 43% Bohlinger, 32%   +11    
    Daines, 44% Adams, 20%   +24    
               
Public Policy Polling 11/15-17/13 RV Daines, 51% Bohlinger, 36%   +15    
    Daines, 52% Walsh, 35%   +17    
    Edmunds, 39% Bohlinger, 37%   +2    
    Edmunds, 38% Walsh, 36%   +2    
               
  GOP Primary Daines, 66%     +59    
    Edmunds, 7%          
               
  Democrat Primary   Walsh, 39%   +8    
      Bohlinger, 31%        
      Adams, 3%        
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
NEBRASKA – *(R) Mike Johanns Retiring (R) Ben Sasse vs. (D) David Domina GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Sasse D-Domina Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 5/14-15/14 51% 34%   +17    
Rasmussen 4/7-8/14 LV 52% 27%   +25    
               
AVG.              
NEW HAMPSHIRE *(D) Jeanne Shaheen vs.(R) Bob Smith?, Jim Rubens, Charlie Bass?,  DEM HOLD
    Karen Testerman, Scott Brown    
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Magellan 7/16-17/14 RV Brown 41% Shaheen 46%   +5    
NBC News/Marist 7/7-13/14 RV Brown 42% Shaheen 50%   +8    
WMUR/Univ. NH 6/19 – 7/1/14 LV Brown 40% Shaheen 52%   +12    
American Research Group 6/14-18/14 RV Brown 38% Shaheen 50%   +12    
Suffolk / Boston Herald 6/14-18/14 LV Brown 39% Shaheen 49%   +10    
Vox Populi 5/14-15/14 LV Brown 35% Shaheen 47%   +12    
    Smith 34% Shaheen 45%   +11    
               
Hickman Analytics 4/24-30/14 LV Brown 43% Shaheen 49%   +6    
               
Public Policy Polling 4/7-8/14 RV Brown, 41% Shaheen, 49%   +8    
               
Univ. of New Hampshire 4/1-9/14 LV Brown, 39% Shaheen, 45%   +6    
    Smith, 34% Shaheen, 48%   +14    
    Rubens, 27% Shaheen, 48%   +21    
    Testerman, 25% Shaheen, 48%   +23    
               
American Research Group 3/13-16/14 RV Brown, 38% Shaheen, 50%   +12    
               
Rasmussen 3/12-13/14 LV Brown, 41% Shaheen, 50%   +9    
               
Suffolk 2/27-3/5/14 Brown, 39% Shaheen, 52%   +13    
    Rubens, 29% Shaheen, 52%   +23    
    Martin, 27% Shaheen, 52%   +25    
    Smith, 32% Shaheen, 53%   +21    
    Testerman, 29% Shaheen, 52%    +23    
               
Public Policy Polling 2/19-20/14 RV Brown, 39% Shaheen, 47%   +8    
               
AVG.              
NEW JERSEY – (D) Frank Lautenberg died; *(D) Cory Booker vs. (R) Jeff Bell DEM HOLD
       (D) Cory Booker won  Special Election        
               
Poll Poll Date R-Bell D-Booker Ind. Margin    
Monmouth Univ. 6/26-29/14 RV 23% 43%   +20    
Rasmussen 6/17-18/14 LV 35% 48%   +13    
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
NEW MEXICO *(D) Tom Udall vs.(R) Allen Weh DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Public Policy Polling 3/20-23/14 RV Clements, 33% Udall, 55%   +22    
    Weh, 33% Udall, 53%   +20    
               
AVG.              
NORTH CAROLINA *(D) Kay Hagan vs. (R) Thom Tillis vs. (L) Sean Haugh TOSSUP
               
Poll Poll Date R-Thom Tillis *D-Kay Hagan L-Haugh Margin    
CBS News/NYT/YouGov 7/5-24/14 LV 48% 47%   +1    
Public Policy Polling 7/17-20/14 RV 34% 41% 8% +7    
Civitas 6/18-22/14 RV 36% 42% 9% +6    
Public Policy Polling 6/12-15/14 RV 38% 42%   +4    
Civitas 5/20-22/14 RV 46% 41%   +5    
Public Policy Polling 5/9-11/14 LV 36% 38% 11% +2    
Rasmussen 5/7-8/14 LV 45% 44%   +1    
Magellan 4/14-15/14 LV 43% 43%   Tie    
NYT/Kaiser 4/8-15/14 RV 40% 42%   +2    
Public Policy Polling 4/3-6/14 RV 41% 43%   +2    
Survey USA 3/27-31/14 RV 46% 45%   +1    
               
AVG.   39.3% 43.3% 8.5% +4.0    
OKLAHOMA – *R – Tom Coburn *(R) James Lankford?, J.C. Watts?, James Weger?, TW Shannon? vs. (D) Undetermined GOP HOLD
       Retiring (Special Election)        
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Sooner Poll / News on 6 6/19-21/14 LV Lankford 43%     +8    
  GOP PRIMARY Shannon 35%          
  (June 24) Brogdon 4%          
               
Sooner Poll 5/5-10/14 LV Lankford 34%     +2    
  GOP PRIMARY Shannon 32%          
  (June 24) Brogdon 5%          
               
Harper Polling 1/30-2/1/14 LV            
  GOP Primary Watts, 40%     +3    
    Lankford, 37%          
    Weger, 8%          
    Shannon, 2%          
AVG.              
OKLAHOMA *(R) Jim Inhofe vs. (D) Matt Silverstein GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Inhofe D-Silverstein Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/15-16/14 LV 58% 27%   +31    
               
AVG.              
               
OREGON *(D) Jeff Merkley vs.(R) Monica Wehby DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date R-Wehby *D-Merkley Ind. Margin    
Survey USA 6/5-9/14 LV 32% 50%   +18    
Public Policy Polling 5/22-27/14 RV 36% 50%   +14    
Rasmussen 5/21-22/14 LV 37% 47%   +10    
Vox Populi Polling 4/28-30/14 LV 45% 41%   +4    
Benenson Strategy Group 4/14-17/14 LV 32% 52%   +20    
Harper Polling 4/1-2/14 LV 34% 46%   +12    
               
AVG.   37.5% 47.0%   +9.5    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
RHODE ISLAND *(D) Jack Reed vs.(R) Undetermined DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
               
               
AVG.              
SOUTH CAROLINA *(R) Lindsey Graham vs. (D) Brad Hutto GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date *R-Lindsey Graham D-Brad Hutto Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/9-10/14 LV 49% 30%   +19    
               
AVG.              
SOUTH CAROLINA – *(R) Tim Scott *(R) Tim Scott vs. (D) Joyce Dickerson GOP HOLD
(Jim DeMint Resigned, Scott Appointed)        
Poll Poll Date *R-Tim Scott D-Joyce Dickerson Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 7/9-10/14 LV 53% 31%   +22    
               
AVG.              
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
SOUTH DAKOTA -  (D) Rick Weiland vs. (R) Gov. Mike Rounds, Bill Napoli, Larry Rhoden,  GOP TAKEAWAY
*(D) Tim Johnson Retiring   Stace Nelson, Annette Bosworth vs (I) Larry Pressler    
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 6/4-5/14 LV Rounds 44% Weiland 29% Pressler 18% +15    
               
Survey USA 5/6-10/14 LV Rounds 44% Weiland 30%   +14    
               
Public Policy Polling 4/30-5/1/14 LV Rounds 38% Weiland 28% Pressler 15% +10    
               
Rasmussen 2/25-26/14 LV Rounds, 51% Weiland, 31%   +20    
               
AVG.              
TENNESSEE *(R) Lamar Alexander, Joe Carr, Brenda Lenard, Danny Paige vs. (D) Terry Adams, GOP HOLD
    William Gordon Ball    
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Rasmussen 4/29-30/14 LV Alexander 50% Adams 26%   +24    
    Alexander 51% Ball 25%   +26    
               
North Star Opinion ?            
  GOP PRIMARY Alexander, 62%     +45    
    Carr, 17%          
    Lenard, 2%          
    Paige, 1%          
               
Middle Tenn. State U. 1/23-26/14 RV Alexander, 47%     +40    
    Carr, 7%          
               
AVG.              
TEXAS   *(R) John Cornyn vs. (D) David Alameel vs. (L) Kathie Glass GOP HOLD
               
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
Univ. Texas/Texas Tribune 5/30 – 6/8/14 RV Cornyn 36% Alameel 25% Glass (L) 3% +11    
Public Policy Polling 4/10-13/14 RV Cornyn 49% Alameel 32%   +17    
               
AVG.              
VIRGINIA *(D) Mark Warner vs.(R) Ed Gillespie vs. (L) Robert Sarvis DEM HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date Gillespie-R Warner-D Sarvis (Lib) Margin    
Roanoke College 7/14-19/14 RV 22% 47% 5% +25    
Rasmussen 6/11-12/14 LV 36% 53%   +17    
Public Policy Polling/MoveOn 4/1-2/14 RV 35% 49%   +14    
Quinnipiac 3/19-24/14 RV 31% 46% 6% +15    
Roanoke College 2/22-28/14 RV 29% 56%   +27    
Harper Polling 2/4-5/14 LV 38% 44%   +6    
Rasmussen 1/20-21/14 LV 37% 51%   +14    
Christopher Newport Univ. 1/15-22/14 RV 30% 50%   +20    
Roanoke College 1/13-17/14 RV 21% 50%   +29    
               
AVG.   29.0% 50.0% 5.0% +21.0    
STATE POSSIBLE CANDIDATES PROJECTION
WEST VIRGINIA -  (D) Natalie Tennant vs. (R) Shelley Moore Capito GOP TAKEAWAY
(D) Jay Rockefeller Retiring        
Poll Poll Date R-Capito D-Tennant Ind. Margin    
West Virginia Poll 5/19-22/14 LV 49% 38%   +11    
Rasmussen 5/14-15/14 LV 48% 39%   +9    
Rasmussen 2/19-20/14 LV 49% 35%   +14    
Harper Polling 9/24-25/13 LV 51% 34%   +17    
               
AVG.   49.3% 37.0%   +12.3    
WYOMING *(R) Mike Enzi, Thomas Beleming vs. (D) Undetermined GOP HOLD
         
Poll Poll Date GOP Democrat Ind. Margin    
The Wickers Group 10/25-28/13 LV Enzi, 69%     +52    
    Cheney, 17%          
               
AVG.