2016 GOP Presidential Nomination – Key State Primary, Caucus Polls

UPDATED 6/8/16

Below you will find the latest state polls for the 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination. Polls for states are listed in date order, the order in which the state holds its primary or caucus. We have now added polls for all the GOP Primary/Caucus contests. It appears the delegate battle will continue well into May and perhaps, all the way to the final contests in June. Check this page regularly for all the state polls and averages on the GOP Nomination race.

2016 Presidential Election Electoral Vote Map, Polls, Projections

2016 GOP Presidential Nomination – KEY STATE PRIMARY/CAUCUS POLLS
                                   
Delegate Battle (1237 Needed; Via CNN): Trump 1541, Cruz 563, Rubio 167, Kasich 161, Carson 7, Bush 1, Huck 1, Paul 1, Fiorina 1
Donald Trump has clinched the 2016 GOP Presidential Nomination
NOTE: Last 12 days of polls used (if enough polls) for Average until week of voting. Then last 7 days of polls used to gauge recent trends.
NOTE: Tracking polls (if any) are listed in sequence at the top of a State’s list of polls for easier comparison.
                                   
GOP Nomination Primary / Caucuses – Current Polling Leaders (Scroll down for Poll Details)
                                   
Feb 1 States/Delegates Winner March 15 States/Delegates Leader/Margin April 26 States/Del Leader/Margin
Iowa Caucus (30) Cruz Wins Florida Primary (99) Trump Wins Connecticut Primary (28) Trump Wins
    Illinois Primary (69) Trump Wins Delaware Primary (16) Trump Wins
Feb 9 States/Delegates   Missouri Primary (52) Trump Wins Maryland Primary (38) Trump Wins
New Hampshire Primary (23) Trump Wins North Carolina Primary (72) Trump Wins Pennsylvania Primary (71) Trump Wins
    Ohio Primary (66) Kasich Wins Rhode Island Primary (19) Trump Wins
Feb 20 States/Delegates          
South Carolina Primary (50) Trump Wins March 22 States/Delegates   May 3 States/Delegates  
    Arizona Primary (58) Trump Wins Indiana Primary (57) Trump Wins
Feb 23 States/Delegates   Utah Caucus (40) Cruz Wins    
Nevada Caucus (30) Trump Wins         May 10 States/Del  
    April 1 States/Delegates       Nebraska Primary (36) Trump Wins
March 1 States/Delegates Winner North Dakota Primary (28) Trump Wins West Virginia Primary (34) Trump Wins
Alabama Primary (50) Trump Wins                      
Alaska Caucus (28) Cruz Wins April 5 States/Delegates       May 17 States/Del      
Arkansas Primary (40) Trump Wins Wisconsin Primary (42) Cruz Wins Oregon Primary (28) Trump Wins
Georgia Primary (76) Trump Wins                  
Massachusetts Primary (42) Trump Wins April 19 States/Delegates       May 24 States/Del      
Minnesota Caucus (38) Rubio Wins New York Primary (95) Trump Wins Washington Primary (44) Trump Wins
Oklahoma Primary (43) Cruz Wins                
Tennessee Primary (58) Trump Wins         June 7 States/Del      
Texas Primary (155) Cruz Wins         California Primary (172) Trump Wins
Vermont Primary (16) Trump Wins         Montana Primary (27) Trump Wins
Virginia Primary (49) Trump Wins         New Jersey Primary (51) Trump Wins
                    New Mexico Primary (24) Trump Wins  
March 5 States/Delegates                   South Dakota Primary (29) Trump Wins  
Kansas Caucus (40) Cruz Wins                              
Kentucky Caucus (46) Trump Wins                              
Louisiana Primary (46) Trump Wins                              
Maine Caucus (23) Cruz Wins                              
                                   
March 8 States/Delegates                                  
Hawaii Primary (19) Trump Wins                              
Idaho Primary (32) Cruz Wins                              
Michigan Primary (59) Trump Wins                              
Mississippi Primary (40) Trump Wins                              
                                 
 
IOWA CAUCUS – February 1, 2016* (30 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Bush Paul Huck* Kasich Fiorina Christie Sant* Pataki Graham Jindal Walker Perry
Final Average (2/1/16)  = Trump +5.4  29.3 23.9 16.4 7.9 4.2 3.9 3.1 2.9 2.3 2.2 1.1          
Actual Iowa Results = Cruz +4 24 28 23 9 3 4 2 2 2 2 1          
Delegates Won   7 8 7 3 1 1 1 1 1              
Quinnipiac 1/25-31/16 31 24 17 8 4 4 3 2 2 1 1          
Emerson College 1/29-31/16 27 26 22 3 4 3 5 4 2 3 1          
Overtime Politics 1/28-30/16 34 25 14 7 5 3   3 1 1            
Opinion Savvy 1/29-30/16 20 19 19 9 5 9 4 4 4 3 2          
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg 1/26-29/16 28 23 15 10 2 5 2 2 2 3 2          
Gravis/OAN 1/26-27/16 31 27 13 7 6 2 2 4 3 3 1          
Public Policy Polling 1/26-27/16 31 23 14 9 4 4 4 2 3 2 1          
NBC News/WSJ/Marist 1/24-26/16 32 25 18 8 4 2 2 2 2 2 0          
Monmouth 1/23-26/16 30 23 16 10 4 3 3 3 2 2 1          
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY – February 9, 2016 (23 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Kasich Cruz Bush Christie Fiorina Carson Sant* Paul Huck* Pataki Graham Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +15.5   30.5 15.0 12.5 12.0 10.5 5.5 4.5 3.4                
Actual Results = Trump +19 35 11 16 12 11 7 4 2                
Delegates Won   11 2 4 3 3                      
Umass Lowell/7News Tracking 2/5-7/16 34 13 10 13 10 5 4 3                
Umass Lowell/7News Tracking 2/4-6/16 36 14 9 13 10 4 4 3                
Umass Lowell/7News Tracking 2/3-5/16 35 14 10 13 10 4 3 3                
Umass Lowell/7News Tracking 2/2-4/16 34 15 8 14 8 5 3 4                
Umass Lowell/7News Tracking 2/1-3/16 36 15 7 14 8 5 3 4                
Umass Lowell/7News Tracking 1/31-2/2/16 38 12 7 14 9 6 3 3                
Umass Lowell/7News Tracking 1/30-2/1/16 38 10 9 14 9 5 3 3 1 2 0          
ARG – Tracking 2/7-8/16 33 14 17 10 9 8 3 1                
ARG – Tracking 2/6-7/16 30 16 16 10 9 6 3 1                
ARG – Tracking 2/4-5/16 34 16 17 9 8 5 2 2                
ARG – Tracking 2/3-4/16 36 15 14 12 8 6 2 2                
ARG – Tracking 2/2-3/16 34 14 13 12 8 6 2 2                
CNN/WMUR – Tracking 2/4-8/16 31 17 10 14 7 4 5 3                
CNN/WMUR – Tracking 2/3-6/16 33 16 11 14 7 4 6 2                
CNN/WMUR – Tracking (Full) 2/2-4/16 28 17 13 13 9 4 5 1                
CNN/WMUR – Tracking (Early) 2/2-4/16 29 18 12 13 10 4 4 2                
Overtime Politics 2/6-8/16 29 18 14 11 8 5 3 5                
Gravis/One America 2/7/2016 28 15 17 11 14 6 5 3                
Emerson  2/4-7/16 31 12 13 11 16 6 7 3                
Monmouth 2/4-6/16 30 13 14 12 13 6 5 4                
Franklin Pierce/Boston Herald 2/2-6/16 31 15 11 16 10 5 4 3                
Suffolk/Boston Globe 2/3-4/16 29 19 13 7 10 5 4 4                
Gravis/One America 2/2-4/16 29 19 13 15 8 6 4 4                
MassINC/WBUR 2/2-4/16 29 12 9 12 9 6 8 4                
NBC News/WSJ/Marist 2/2-3/16 30 17 10 15 9 4 2 4                
 
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY – February 20, 2016 (50 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Bush Kasich Carson Christie Paul Huck* Fiorina Sant* Pataki Graham Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +14.3         Last 7 Days 32.5 18.4 17.5 10.0 9.0 6.6                    
Average = Trump +12.7         Last 3 Days 31.1 18.4 18.6 10.0 9.6 6.6                    
Actual Results = Trump +10 32.5 22.3 22.5 7.8 7.6 7.2                    
Delegates Won   50                              
Opinion Savvy 2/18-19/16 27 19 24 11 7 8                    
National Research 2/17-18/16 32 19 18 8 7 6                    
Overtime Politics 2/17-19/16 31 18 25 7 10 5                    
SC House Republican Caucus 2/18/2016 34 19 18 12 8 5                    
ARG 2/17-18/16 34 13 22 9 14 4                    
Emerson College 2/16-18/16 36 18 19 10 10 6                    
SC House Republican Caucus 2/17/2016 34 18 16 14 9 5                    
Clemson-Palmetto 2/14-18/16 28 19 15 10 9 6                    
ARG 2/16-17/16 33 13 20 8 15 3                    
Harper 2/16-17/16 29 17 15 14 13 8                    
Fox News 2/15-17/16 32 19 15 6 9 9                    
NBC/WSJ/Marist 2/15-17/16 28 23 15 13 9 9                    
SC House Republican Caucus 2/16/2016 35 16 16 14 9 6                    
Emerson College 2/15-16/16 33 20 19 9 9 5                    
Monmouth 2/14-16/16 35 19 17 8 9 7                    
ARG 2/14-16/16 33 14 16 9 14 3                    
Bloomberg 2/13-16/16 36 17 15 13 7 9                    
SC House Republican Caucus 2/15/2016 34 16 15 15 8 7                    
Public Policy Polling 2/14-15/16 35 18 18 7 10 7                    
CNN/ORC 2/10-15/16 38 22 14 10 4 6                    
SC House Republican Caucus 2/14/2016 33 14 14 13 10 6                    
Crantford Research/Free-Times 2/14/2016 32 16 13 12 9 4                    
 
NEVADA CAUCUS – February 23, 2016 (30 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Bush Fiorina Christie Paul Sant* Huck* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +22.0   42.0 20.0 19.0 7.0 6.0                      
Actual Results = Trump +22 45.9 21.4 23.9 3.6 4.8                      
Delegates Won   14 6 7 1 1                      
Gravis Marketing/One America 2/14-15/16 39 23 19 9 5 5                    
CNN/ORC 2/10-15/16 45 17 19 5 7 1                    
 
March 1, 2016 – Super Tuesday / SEC Primary, Caucus States
ALABAMA PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (50 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Carson Kasich Bush Christie Fiorina Huck* Walker Paul Sant* Perry Jindal Graham Pataki
Average = Trump +21.5   40.3 18.8 15.5 9.8 6.8                      
Actual Results = Trump +22.3 43.4 18.7 21.1 10.2 4.4                      
Delegates Won   36 1 13 0 0                      
SurveyMonkey 2/22-29/16 47 14 18 9 3                      
Monmouth 2/25-28/16 42 19 16 11 9                      
Opinion Savvy 2/25-26/16 36 23 16 11 8                      
Master Image 2/23/2016 36 19 12 8 7                      
 
ALASKA CAUCUS – March 1, 2016 (28 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Kasich Fiorina Bush Christie Huck* Paul Sant* Walker Perry Jindal Graham Pataki
Average = Trump +9.0   34.5 25.5 11.0 7.5 4.0                      
Actual Results = Cruz +2.9 33.5 36.4 15.1 10.9 4.1                      
Delegates Won   11 12 5 0 0                      
Overtime Politics 2/21-23/16 41 27 15 6 6                      
Alaska Dispatch/Ivan Moore 1/5-12/16 28 24 7 9 2   7                  
                                   
 
ARKANSAS PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (40 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Kasich Fiorina Bush Christie Huck* Paul Sant* Walker Perry Jindal Graham Pataki
Average = Trump +7.0   34.0 27.0 20.0 8.0 4.0                      
Actual Results = Trump +2.3 32.8 30.5 24.9 5.7 3.7                      
Delegates Won   16 15 9 0 0                      
SurveyMonkey 2/22-29/16 34 27 20 8 4                      
 
COLORADO CAUCUS -  (37 Delegates) – Caucus Cancelled; State Party to determine Delegates
Poll Date Carson Rubio Trump Cruz Kasich Fiorina Bush Christie Huck* Paul Sant* Walker Perry Jindal Graham Pataki
Average = Carson +6.0   25.0 19.0 17.0 14.0 1.0                      
Quinnipiac 11/11-15/15 25 19 17 14 1                      
Delegates Won       0 34 0                      
 
GEORGIA PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (76 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Carson Kasich Bush Christie Fiorina Huck* Paul Sant* Pataki Graham Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +17.2   38.3 21.1 20.4 7.8 7.0                      
Actual Results = Trump +14.4 38.8 24.4 23.6 6.2 5.6                      
Delegates Won   43 16 17 0 0                      
SurveyMonkey 2/22-29/16 39 20 21 9 6                      
Landmark/RosettaStone/WSB 2/28/2016 39 20 15 9 8                      
Fox 5/Opinion Savvy 2/27-28/16 33 23 23 6 11                      
Trafalgar Group 2/26-28/16 39 24 21 6 7                      
CBS News/YouGov 2/22-26/16 40 22 29 7 2                      
Atlanta 11Alive/Survey USA 2/22-23/16 45 19 16 8 6                      
WABE/Research Now 2/22-24/16 41 18 15 8 7                      
Fox 5/Opinion Savvy 2/22-23/16 34 22 20 8 9                      
NBC News/WSJ 2/18-23/16 30 23 23 9 9                      
 
MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (42 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Kasich Cruz Carson Bush Fiorina Christie Graham Huck* Paul Jindal Sant* Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +26.8   45.3 18.5 15.3 11.0 3.0                      
Actual Results = Trump +31.3 49.3 17.9 18 9.6 2.6                      
Delegates Won   22 8 8 4 0                      
Emerson College 2/26-28/16 51 20 14 10 1                      
Suffolk 2/24-26/16 43 20 17 9 4                      
Umass/Amherst 2/19-25/16 47 15 11 15 2                      
WBUR/MassINC 2/21-23/16 40 19 19 10 5                      
 
MINNESOTA CAUCUS – March 1, 2016 (38 Delegates) = Marco Rubio Wins
Poll Date Rubio Cruz Trump Carson Kasich Bush Fiorina Christie Graham Huck* Paul Jindal Sant* Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Rubio +2.0   23.0 21.0 18.0 11.0 2.0                      
Actual Results = Rubio +7.5 36.5 29 21.3 7.3 5.8                      
Delegates Won   17 13 8 0 0                      
Mason-Dixon/Star-Tribune 1/18-20/16 23 21 18 11 2 7                    
                                   
 
OKLAHOMA PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (43 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Carson Kasich Bush Fiorina Christie Huck* Paul Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +12.2   33.0 20.8 20.0 9.0 6.5                      
Actual Results = Cruz +6.1 28.3 26 34.4 6.2 3.6                      
Delegates Won   13 12 15 0 0                      
SurveyMonkey 2/22-29/16 34 19 19 14 7                      
Monmouth 2/25-28/16 35 22 23 7 8                      
Sooner Poll 2/23-25/16 34 21 18 9 6                      
The Oklahoman 2/22-23/16 29 21 20 6 5                      
 
TENNESSEE PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (58 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Kasich Paul Bush Fiorina Christie Huck* Jindal Sant* Graham Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +25.5   44.0 18.5 18.5 9.5 5.5                      
Actual Results = Trump +14.2 38.9 24.7 21.2 7.6 5.3                      
Delegates Won   33 16 9 0 0                      
SurveyMonkey 2/22-29/16 48 15 18 10 5                      
NBC News/WSJ 2/18-23/16 40 22 19 9 6                      
 
TEXAS PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (155 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Cruz Trump Rubio Kasich Carson Bush Paul Fiorina Christie Huck* Sant* Jindal Pataki Graham Walker Perry
Average = Cruz +7.2   36.2 29.0 18.5 6.5 6.2                      
Actual Results = Cruz +17.1 43.8 26.7 17.7 4.2 4.2                      
Delegates Won   104 48 3 0 0                      
SurveyMonkey 2/22-29/16 33 31 19 5 9                      
Fox26Houston/Opinion Savvy 2/28/2016 36 25 19 9 8                      
Emerson 2/26-28/16 35 32 16 9 4                      
ARG 2/26-28/16 33 32 17 7 6                      
CBS News/YouGov 2/22-26/16 42 31 19 4 4                      
Monmouth 2/22-24/16 38 23 21 5 6                      
 
VERMONT PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (16 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Carson Bush Paul Fiorina Christie Huck* Sant* Jindal Pataki Graham Walker Perry
Average = Trump +15.0   32.0 17.0 11.0 10.0 3.0                      
Actual Results = Trump +2.3 32.7 19.3 9.7 30.4 4.2                      
Delegates Won   8 0 0 8 0                      
Castleton Univ. 2/3-17/16 32 17 11 10 3                      
                                   
 
VIRGINIA PRIMARY – March 1, 2016 (49 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Carson Kasich Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Huck* Graham Sant* Jindal Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +15.5   38.8 23.3 16.0 7.5 7.0                      
Actual Results = Trump +2.8 34.7 31.9 16.9 5.9 9.4                      
Delegates Won   17 16 8 3 5                      
SurveyMonkey 2/22-29/16 36 26 13 11 7                      
CBS News/YouGov 2/22-26/16 40 27 22 4 6                      
Monmouth 2/22-24/16 41 27 14 7 7                      
Roanoke College 2/16-24/16 38 13 15 8 8                      
 
WYOMING CAUCUS – March 1, 2016 (29 Delegates) – Party Process/Delegates Determined April 14-16
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Carson Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Huck* Graham Sant* Jindal Pataki Walker Perry
No Polls to Date                                  
                                   
                                   
March 5, 2016 Primaries / Caucuses
 
KANSAS CAUCUS – March 5, 2016 (40 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Huck* Graham Sant* Jindal Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +9.0   30.5 21.5 15.0 8.0                        
Actual Results = Cruz +24.9 23.3 48.2 16.7 10.7                        
Delegates Won   9 24 6 1                        
Trafalgar Group 3/2-3/16 35 29 17 13                        
Fort Hays State Univ. 2/19-26/16 26 14 13 3 3                      
                                   
 
KENTUCKY CAUCUS – March 5, 2016 (46 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Carson Kasich Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Huck* Graham Sant* Jindal Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +13.0   35.0 22.0 15.0 7.0 6.0                      
Actual Results = Trump +4.3 35.9 16.4 31.6   14.4                      
Delegates Won   17 7 15 0 7                      
Western Kentucky Univ. 2/22-26/16 35 22 15 7 6                      
                                   
 
LOUISIANA PRIMARY – March 5, 2016 (46 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Huck* Graham Sant* Jindal Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +16.8   42.8 26.0 14.0 6.3                        
Actual Results = Trump +3.6 41.4 37.8 11.2 6.2                        
Delegates Won   18 18 5 0                        
Gravis 3/3/2016 48 31 15 6                        
Univ. of New Orleans 3/2/2016 38 26 11 5                        
Trafalgar Group 3/1-2/16 44 26 15 5                        
The Hayride/Magellan 3/1/2016 41 21 15 9 5                      
                                   
 
MAINE CAUCUS – March 5, 2016 (23 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Carson Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Huck* Graham Sant* Jindal Pataki Walker Perry
No Polls to Date                                  
Actual Results = Cruz +13.3 32.6 8 45.9 12.2                        
Delegates Won   9 0 12 2                        
                                   
                                   
March 8, 2016 Primaries
 
HAWAII PRIMARY – March 8, 2016 (19 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Bush Paul Huck* Fiorina Christie Jindal Sant* Graham Pataki Walker Perry
No Polls to Date                                  
Actual Results = Trump +9.7 42.4 32.7 13.1 10.6                        
Delegates Won   11 7 1 0                        
                                   
 
IDAHO PRIMARY – March 8, 2016 (32 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Bush Paul Huck* Fiorina Christie Jindal Sant* Graham Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +11.5   30.5 19.0 13.5 5.0                        
Actual Results = Cruz +17.4 28.1 45.5 15.9 7.4                        
Delegates Won   12 20 0 0                        
Idaho Politics Weekly/Dan Jones 2/17-26/16 30 19 16 5                        
Dan Jones & Associates 1/21-31/16 31 19 11   13                      
Idaho Politics Weekly/Dan Jones 8/20-31/15 28 7 6   15 7 5                  
                                   
 
MICHIGAN PRIMARY – March 8, 2016 (59 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Bush Fiorina Christie Paul Huck* Jindal Sant* Graham Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +17.3   38.3 21.0 20.8 12.3                        
Actual Results = Trump +11.6 36.5 24.9 24.3 9.3                        
Delegates Won   25 17 17 0                        
Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit Poll 3/6/2016 42 19 20 9                        
Trafalgar 3/5-6/16 41 23 23 8                        
Monmouth 3/3-6/16 36 23 21 13                        
ARG 3/4-5/16 31 15 33 11                        
CBS News/YouGov 3/2-4/16 39 24 15 16                        
NBC/WSJ/Marist 3/1-3/16 41 22 13 17                        
Trafalgar 3/2-3/16 42 20 18 14                        
                                   
 
MISSISSIPPI PRIMARY – March 8, 2016 (40 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson Bush Huck* Jindal Christie Paul Fiorina Sant* Graham Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +24.0   41.0 17.0 16.0 8.0 5.0                      
Actual Results = Trump +11.0 47.3 36.3 5.1 8.8                        
Delegates Won   25 15                            
Magellan 2/29/2016 41 17 16 8 5                      
Opinion Savvy/Insider Adv. 8/2/2015 27 9 3 1 10 20 9 4 3 2 2 0 0 0    
                                   
March 15, 2016 Primaries
 
FLORIDA PRIMARY – March 15, 2016 (99 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Rubio Cruz Kasich Carson Bush Christie Paul Fiorina Huck* Sant* Pataki Graham Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +18.2   42.9 24.7 18.1 9.1                        
Actual Results = Trump +18.7 45.7 27 17.1 6.8                        
Delegates Won   99 0 0 0                        
Opinion Savvy/Times-Union 3/13/2016 44 26 18 10                        
Monmouth 3/12-13/16 44 27 17 9                        
Trafalgar 3/12-13/16 44 24 20 9                        
Quinnipiac 3/8-13/16 46 22 14 10                        
ARG 3/11-13/16 49 24 16 8                        
CBS News/YouGov 3/9-11/16 44 21 24 9                        
Florida Atlantic Univ. 3/8-11/16 44 21 21 9                        
NBC/WSJ/Marist 3/4-10/16 43 22 21 9                        
Opinion Savvy/Times-Union 3/9/2016 43 24 21 10                        
Trafalgar 3/8-9/16 42 23 21 11                        
WTSP/Mason-Dixon 3/7-9/16 36 30 17 8                        
Suffolk 3/7-9/16 36 27 19 10                        
Public Policy Polling 3/7-8/16 42 32 14 8                        
Fox News 3/5-8/16 43 20 16 10                        
AIF/Tel Opinon Research 3/6-7/16 33 27 16 12                        
Quinnipiac 3/2-7/16 45 22 18 8                        
                                   
 
ILLINOIS PRIMARY – March 15, 2016 (69 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Bush Fiorina Huck* Paul Christie Jindal Sant* Graham Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +9.0   34.3 25.3 18.3 14.8                        
Actual Results = Trump +8.5 38.8 30.3 19.7 8.7                        
Delegates Won   54 9 6                          
CBS New/YouGov 3/9-11/16 38 34 16 11                        
NBC/WSJ/Marist 3/4-10/16 34 25 21 16                        
We Ask America 3/7-8/2016 33 20 18 11                        
Chicago Tribune 3/2-6/16 32 22 18 21                        
We Ask America 2/24/2016 38 16 9 21                        
                                   
 
MISSOURI PRIMARY – March 15, 2016 (52 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Huck* Carson Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Sant* Jindal Graham Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +7.0   36.0 29.0 9.0 8.0                        
Actual Results = Trump +0.2 40.9 40.7 6.1 9.9                        
Delegates Won   37 15                            
Fort Hays State Univ. 3/3-10/16 36 29 9 8                        
Overtime Politics 12/28-31/15 36 24 18 1   5 4 1 2 2            
                                   
 
NORTH CAROLINA PRIMARY – March 15, 2016 (72 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Bush Christie Fiorina Huck* Paul Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +12.8   41.3 28.5 11.3 10.0                        
Actual Results = Trump +11.0 40.2 36.8 12.7 7.7                        
Delegates Won   29 27 9 6                        
Public Policy Polling 3/11-13/16 44 33 11 7                        
High Point 3/9-10/16 48 28 12 8                        
Civitas 3/5-7/16 32 26 11 11                        
WRAL/SurveyUSA 3/4-7/16 41 27 11 14                        
Elon Univ. 2/15-17/16 28 19 7 16 10                      
                                   
 
OHIO PRIMARY – March 15, 2016 (66 Delegates) = John Kasich Wins
Poll Date Kasich Trump Cruz Rubio Carson Fiorina Bush Paul Huck* Christie Jindal Sant* Graham Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Kasich +3.7   38.0 34.3 18.0 4.7                        
Actual Results = Trump +11.0 46.8 35.6 13.1 2.9                        
Delegates Won   66                              
ARG 3/12-13/16 44 38 12 2                        
Monmouth 3/11-13/16 40 35 15 5                        
Quinnipiac 3/8-13/16 38 38 16 3                        
CBS News/YouGov 3/9-11/16 33 33 27 5                        
NBC/WSJ/Marist 3/4-10/16 39 33 19 6                        
Fox News 3/5-8/16 34 29 19 7                        
Quinnipiac 3/2-7/16 32 38 16 9                        
                                   
 
March 22, 2016 Primaries
 
ARIZONA PRIMARY – March 22, 2016 (58 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Bush Fiorina Christie Huck* Paul Sant* Jindal Graham Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Trump +13.0   38.0 25.0 14.0                          
Actual Results = Trump +22.4 47.1 24.7 10                          
Delegates Won   58                              
Fox 10/Opinion Savvy 3/20/2016 46 33 17                          
Merrill Poll 3/7-11/16 31 19 10                          
MBQF Consulting 3/8/2016 37 23 15 12                        
MBQF Consulting 2/22/2016 35 14 7 23                        
 
UTAH CAUCUS – March 22, 2016 (40 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Cruz Kasich Trump Rubio Carson Bush Fiorina Paul Christie Huck* Sant* Graham Jindal Pataki Walker Perry
Average = Cruz +26.5   47.5 21.0 16.0                          
Actual Results = Cruz +52.3 69.2 16.9 14                          
Delegates Won   40                              
Y2 Analytics 3/17-19/16 53 29 11                          
Deseret News/Dan Jones 3/8-15/16 42 13 21 17                        
Utah Policy/Dan Jones 2/10-15/16 22 4 18 24 9                      
                                   
 
April 1, 2016 Primaries
 
NORTH DAKOTA CONVENTION – April 1, 2016 (28 Delegates) – State Party Process = Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Carson Bush Cruz Rubio Paul Huck* Kasich Fiorina Christie Jindal Sant* Graham Pataki Walker Perry
No Polls to Date                                  
Delegates Won   15     4                        
                                   
 
April 5, 2016 Primaries
 
WISCONSIN PRIMARY – April 5, 2016 (42 Delegates) = Ted Cruz Wins
Poll Date Cruz Trump Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Cruz +3.1   38.8 35.7 19.3                          
Actual Results = Cruz +13.1 48.2 35.1 14.1                          
Delegates Won   36 6                            
ARG 4/1-3/16 32 42 23                          
Emerson 3/30-4/3/16 40 35 21                          
CBS News/YouGov 3/29-4/1/16 43 37 18                          
Fox Business 3/28-30/16 42 32 19                          
Loras College 3/28-29/16 38 31 18                          
Public Policy Polling 3/28-29/16 38 37 17                          
Marquette Univ. 3/24-28/16 40 30 21                          
Optimus 3/22-24/16 27 31 29                          
Emerson 3/20-22/16 36 35 19                          
Basswood Research/Free Beacon 3/19-20/16 36 31 21                          
Marquette Univ. 2/18-21/16 19 30 8 20 8                      
Marquette Univ. 1/21-24/16 16 24 2 18 8 5 3 3 2 1 0          
Marquette Univ. 11/12-15/15 9 19 1 19 22 4 5 1 6 1 0 0 0      
WPR/St. Norbert 10/14-17/15 10 18 3 18 20 1 8 2 3 3 2 0 0 0    
Marquette Univ. 9/24-28/15 5 20 3 14 16 3 11 5 7 3 1 0 0 1    
                                   
 
April 19, 2016 Primaries
 
NEW YORK PRIMARY – April 19, 2016 (95 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Kasich Cruz Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +31.8   53.9 22.1 17.7                          
Actual Results = Trump +35.3 60.4 25.1 14.5                          
Delegates Won   90 5 0                          
Emerson 4/15-17/16 55 21 18                          
CBS News/YouGov 4/13-15/16 54 19 21                          
Optimus 4/11-14/16 49 23 14                          
Gravis/OANN 4/13/2016 57 22 20                          
NBC4 NY/ WSJ /Marist 4/10-13/16 54 25 16                          
Siena 4/6-11/16 50 27 17                          
Quinnipiac 4/6-11/16 55 20 19                          
Public Policy Polling 4/7-10/16 51 25 20                          
NY1/Baruch College 4/5-10/16 60 17 14                          
NBC News/Marist 4/6-10/16 54 21 18                          
Liberty Opinion Research 4/6-7/16 52 23 19                          
Emerson 4/6-7/16 56 17 22                          
Fox News 4/4-7/16 54 22 15                          
Monmouth 4/3-5/16 52 25 17                          
CBS News/YouGov 3/29-4/1/16 52 20 21                          
Quinnipiac 3/22-29/16 56 19 20                          
Liberty Opinion Research 3/24-26/16 55 22 19                          
Optimus 3/22-24/16 50 24 16                          
Emerson 3/14-16/16 64 1 12                          
Siena 2/28-3/3/16 45 18 11                          
                                   
 
April 26, 2016 Primaries
 
CONNECTICUT PRIMARY – April 26, 2016 (28 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Kasich Cruz Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +26.3   52.8 26.5 14.5                          
Actual Results = Trump +29.2 57.7 28.5 11.7                          
Delegates Won   28 0 0                          
Gravis 4/23-24/16 54 27 9                          
Public Policy Polling 4/22-24/16 59 25 13                          
Quinnipiac 4/12-18/16 48 28 19                          
Emerson 4/10-11/16 50 26 17                          
                                   
 
DELAWARE PRIMARY – April 26, 2016 (16 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Kasich Cruz Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +37.0   55.0 18.0 15.0                          
Actual Results = Trump +40.4 60.8 20.4 15.9                          
Delegates Won   16 0 0                          
Gravis 4/17-18/16 55 18 15                          
                                   
 
MARYLAND PRIMARY – April 26, 2016 (38 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Kasich Cruz Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +24.2   49.5 25.3 21.0                          
Actual Results = Trump +31.4 54.4 23 18.9                          
Delegates Won   38 0 0                          
American Research Group 4/21-24/16 55 21 19                          
Gravis 4/21/2016 53 24 22                          
Public Policy Polling 4/15-17/16 43 29 24                          
Monmouth 4/10-12/16 47 27 19                          
Free Beacon/TargetPoint 4/8-10/16 33 25 26                          
NBC/Marist 4/5-9/16 41 24 29                          
Washington Post/Univ. MD 3/30-4/3/16 41 31 22                          
                                   
 
PENNSYLVANIA PRIMARY – April 26, 2016 (71 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +21.4   47.2 25.8 22.0                          
Actual Results = Trump +35.1 56.7 21.6 19.4                          
Delegates Won   51 2 0                          
American Research Group 4/21-24/16 50 23 21                          
Fox 29/Opinion Savvy 4/22-24/16 48 28 19                          
Public Policy Polling 4/22-24/16 51 25 22                          
CBS News/YouGov 4/20-22/16 49 26 22                          
NBC/WSJ/Marist 4/18-20/16 45 27 24                          
Franklin & Marshall 4/11-18/16 40 26 24                          
CBS News/YouGov 4/13-15/16 46 26 23                          
Morning Call/Muhlenberg 4/7-12/16 41 23 26                          
Monmouth 4/10-12/16 44 28 23                          
Fox News 4/4-7/16 48 20 22                          
Morning Call/Muhlenberg 4/1-6/16 37 29 28                          
Quinnipiac 3/30-4/4/16 39 30 24                          
CBS News/YouGov 3/29-4/1/16 47 29 22                          
Franklin & Marshall 3/14-20/16 33 20 30                          
Harper 3/1-2/16 36 17 10                          
                                   
 
RHODE ISLAND PRIMARY – April 26, 2016 (19 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Kasich Cruz Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +29.3   52.3 23.0 12.3                          
Actual Results = Trump +39.4 63.8 24.4 10.4                          
Delegates Won   9 5 3                          
Gravis 4/23-24/16 58 21 10                          
Public Policy Polling 4/22-24/16 61 23 13                          
Brown Univ. 4/19-21/16 38 25 14                          
                                   
 
May 3, 2016 Primaries
 
INDIANA PRIMARY – May 3, 2016 (57 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins; Becomes GOP
                                                                                           Presumptive Nominee as Ted Cruz Drops Out
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +10.8   42.8 32.0 14.8                          
Actual Results = Trump +16.7 53.3 36.6 7.6                          
Delegates Won   51                              
Gravis 4/28-29/16 44 27 9                          
NBC News/WSJ/Marist 4/26-28/16 49 34 13                          
ARG 4/27-28/16 41 32 21                          
Clout Research 4/27/2016 37 35 16                          
Indiana U-Fort Wayne (IPFW) 4/13-27/16 29 45 13                          
CBS News/YouGov 4/20-22/16 40 35 20                          
Fox News 4/18-21/16 41 33 16                          
WTHR/Howey Politics 4/18-21/16 37 31 22                          
                                   
 
May 10, 2016 Primaries
 
NEBRASKA PRIMARY – May 10, 2016 (36 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
No Recent Polling                                  
Actual Results = Trump +43.0 61.4 18.4 11.4                          
Delegates Won   36                              
                                   
 
WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY – May 10, 2016 (34 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
No Recent Polling                                  
Actual Results = Trump +68.0 77.0 9.0 6.7                          
Delegates Won   32   1                          
                                   
 
May 17, 2016 Primaries
 
OREGON PRIMARY – May 17, 2016 (28 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
Average = Trump +17.0   43.0 26.0 17.0                          
Hoffman Research/OPB FM 4/25-27/16 43 26 17                          
Actual Results = Trump +49.6 66.6 17.0 16.3                          
Delegates Won   19 4 4                          
                                   
 
May 24, 2016 Primaries
 
WASHINGTON PRIMARY – May 24, 2016 (44 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
No Recent Polling                                  
Actual Results = Trump +56.1 76.2 10.1 9.9                          
Delegates Won   40                              
                                   
                                   
 
June 7, 2016 Primaries
 
CALIFORINA PRIMARY – June 7, 2016 (172 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
AVERAGE = Trump +24.3   48.3 24.0 18.3                          
Actual Results = Trump +64.1 75.4 9.1 11.3                          
Delegates Won   172                              
KABC/Survey USA 4/27-30/16 54 20 16                          
Fox News 4/18-21/16 49 22 20                          
CBS News/YouGov 4/13-15/16 49 31 16                          
Capitol Wkly/Sextant Strategies 4/11-14/16 41 23 21                          
Field Poll 3/24-4/4/16 39 32 18                          
Survey USA 3/30-4/3/16 40 32 17                          
USC/LA Times 3/16-23/16 36 35 14                          
PPIC 3/6-15/16 38 27 14                          
NSON/Opinion Strategy 3/9-10/16 38 22 20                          
Smith Johnson Research 3/7-9/16 25 20 15 18                        
                                   
                                   
 
MONTANA PRIMARY – June 7, 2016 (27 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
No Recent Polling                                  
Actual Results = Trump +64.3 73.7 9.4 6.9                          
Delegates Won   27                              
                                   
 
 
NEW JERSEY PRIMARY – June 7, 2016 (51 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Kasich Cruz Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
AVERAGE = Trump +28.0   52.0 24.0 18.0                          
Actual Results = Trump +67.3 80.6 13.3 6.1                          
Delegates Won   51                              
Rutgers-Eagleton 4/1-8/16 52 24 18                          
                                   
 
NEW MEXICO PRIMARY – June 7, 2016 (24 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
No Recent Polling                                  
Actual Results = Trump +57.4 70.7 13.3 7.5                          
Delegates Won   24                              
                                   
 
SOUTH DAKOTA PRIMARY – June 7, 2016 (29 Delegates) = Donald Trump Wins
Poll Date Trump Cruz Kasich Rubio Carson Christie Fiorina Paul Bush Huck* Sant* Graham Pataki Jindal Walker Perry
No Recent Polling                                  
Actual Results = Trump +50.1 67.1 17.0 15.9                          
Delegates Won   29                              
                                   
                                   
 
*NOTE: All Primary, Caucus dates are tentative; "Huck" = Huckabee, "Sant" = Santorum