Starting with October 19, 2012, we’ll archive each day’s notes on the 2012 Electoral Vote Map & Projection below. I should have thought of doing this sooner. But from this point forward, each day’s notes will be archived here as something of a running commentary on polls and map changes leading up to Election Day, November 6:
Map and Projection Notes for 11/05/12:
11/6/12, 12:15 AM ET: We have posted our 2012 Final Electoral Vote Projection – Mitt Romney 295, Barack Obama 243. It’s somewhat terrifying to make the final projection after all these months! It comes down to which model of turnout you believe will take place tomorrow. If, as most of the state polls assume the turnout will be like or near 2008 levels (Democratic +7), then you will see an Obama Victory. But if the turnout is more like 2004, when it was just about Even, you will see a Mitt Romney victory. Added to that the tremendous enthusiasm on the ground for Romney right now, we believe Romney will prevail. A great deal of our decision is based on the polls of the national Party I.D. done by Rasmussen, Gallup, and Pew – all of which see the 2012 electorate as being closer to Even. Actually, as we posted today, Rasmussen’s October Party Affiliation poll finds it to be Republican +5.8! If it is anywhere near that number, Romney will get 295 Electoral Votes and more. If the turnout is like 2008, we will be wrong, and President Obama will be re-elected. We’ll know a lot more in 24 hours! However it turns out, I have really enjoyed posting the polls and keeping up with the race. Thanks for checking in from time to time or frequently. I hope the information here has been helpful to you!
We’ll be following the 2014 Mid-terms and, of course, the 2016 Presidential race! So, we hope you’ll come back in the days and years to come! Have a great Election Day tomorrow. May God bless America!
It’s been a busy day, so we are just now getting to working on our Final Projection. . . . Stay tuned!
*Added another Ohio Poll, this one from Gravis Marketing that shows Obama up +1. This is with a Democratic +8 sample! It finds Romney winning Independents by 7-points.
I’ll be adding more polls later this evening, and we will post a Final Projection Map late tonight. Again, unlike some sites, we will base our map on polling AND other factors – such as enthusiasm and what the expected turnout will be. Stay tuned. . .
*Added yet another Ohio poll, this one from Survey USA showing Obama +5 using a Democratic +5 sample.
*Two new Ohio polls added. Rasmussen shows it tied in the Buckeye State, while Univ. of Cincinnati/Ohio Poll has it Obama +1.
*Added two new polls for New Hampshire. ARG has the race tied at 49%, while PPP has Obama +2.
*Added a new ARG Poll for Iowa showing Mitt Romney leading there by one-point. More polls coming through the day. . .
*Added a Rasmussen poll for Virginia showing Romney +2.
*Rasmussen just posted their National Tracking Poll today showing Mitt Romney back ahead by one-point, 49%-48%. Perhaps most significant in the poll is that Romney is now back ahead by double digits with Independent voters – 53%-38%. Rasmussen will issue one final tracking poll early tomorrow morning.
*Just posted a new poll for New Hampshire showing Obama +3. That’s some movement in his direction over the last two days in the WMUR/UNH poll. We’ll see if that movement is confirmed by some other NH polls today.
*Good Morning! It’s Election Eve. Just posted two new polls for Florida. PPP shows Obama +1 using a Democrat +6 sample. But Insider Advantage/Florida Times-Union shows Romney +5. They join Mason-Dixon (Romney +6) in showing a strong Romney lead.
Rasmussen and Gallup will come out with national polls later today. That will give us a better indication of where the race is as we head into Election Day. More polls to come. . . .
We will post a Final Election Projection sometime late tonight or early morning before voting begins tomorrow. Some have mentioned our map does not square with polling averages. That’s right. Our Final Projection may wind up matching the polling averages, but maybe not. We are trying to look at other factors to determine momentum, ground game, and frankly, the bias in some polls. At this point, it comes down to whether Romney will have enough turnout in Ohio and Colorado to win. If he does, and he wins Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, he wins the Presidency. That’s what we’ll be looking for today – late polls or indicators as to whether he can win those states. It’s going to be interesting to watch!
Map and Projection Notes for 11/04/12:
*Added a Public Policy Polling poll for Iowa showing Obama +2. That’s not bad coming from them. They use a Democrat +3 sample.
*Also posted a CNN/Opinion Research National Poll showing the race tied at 49%-49%, and it appears to use a Democrat +11 sample! I can’t believe it, but that’s what it says on page 29 of the poll survey. Democrat +11! Yet it is tied and Obama is not at 50%. Also, inside the poll, Romney is winning Independent voters by an astonishing 22-points! If that is even close to reality, CNN may have discovered a coming blowout. We’ll see. Could just be a lousy poll sample.
Added yet another Pennsylvania poll, this one showing Obama up by only 3 points. Romney is speaking there this evening at a big rally, and the Obama Campaign is going to have Bill Clinton there all day tomorrow – which means they are concerned about it.
*Added a new poll for Michigan from Baydoun/Foster showing Mitt Romney ahead by one-point. More polls to come. . .
*Added two new polls for Pennsylvania. One shows the race tied, while Public Policy Polling shows Obama +6 using a Democratic +10 sample! Romney will be in Pennsylvania today for a huge rally. He’s making a real push for the state. It’s longshot for Republicans. But with a big GOP turnout, you never know.
*Good Morning! Hope you enjoyed your extra hour’s sleep! Just added a new Columbus Dispatch Poll for Ohio showing Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50%-48% in the critical battleground state. However, they describe it as essentially a tie, and say if there is a large GOP turnout on November 6, they could turn the state red for Romney. Based on Early-Voting trends and what appears to be high GOP enthusiasm, we are leaving Ohio in Romney’s column for now.
Map and Projection Notes for 11/03/12:
*Interesting information on Early Voting in IA, OH, FL:
IOWA: Among early voters, Dems beat GOP by 11% in 2004, 17% in 2008.Today, Dems up by 10%. (GOP always wins election day voters).— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) November 4, 2012
OHIO: GOP has increased their early turnout by more than 100k from 2008. Dems down 150k. That is 250k net (Obama won in 2008 by 260k).— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) November 4, 2012
FLORIDA: Dems won early vote in 2008 by 8%.Today, they lead by 2%. That 6% gain represents 270k votes in a state Obama won by 236k.— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) November 3, 2012
*A new Univ. of New Hampshire/WMUR Poll in New Hampshire now shows the race tied at 48%-48%. That’s a shocking turnaround from their last poll, which showed Obama +9. Romney is winning Independents 54%-32% in this poll – by 22 points! With that momentum, along with a Gravis poll showing Romney within 1 point despite using a Democratic +5 sample, and Rasmussen’s last poll showing Romney +2, we’re moving New Hampshire back to Romney’s Column for now.
*Added new Des Moines Register Poll for Iowa showing Obama +5. The numbers are odd for this late in the campaign: 47%-42%. Pollsters usually push “undecideds” to choose a candidate. 11% undecided just days before the elections is unusual. Independents are breaking for Romney slightly in this poll.
Added several polls – CA, HI, MI. There is also a new poll by NMB Research showing Mitt Romney with a one-point lead in Minnesota! I’m not sure I’m that optimistic, but several polls show the race there within 5 points and Mitt Romney is on the air there. The Obama Campaign is sending surrogates there to defend it and are now advertising in Minnesota. If it’s even close there, it bodes well for Romney across the country.
*Added polls for WI, IA, NH, VA. The Gravis polls for NH and IA use heavy Democratic samples. No internals for the We Ask America polls for VA and WI. It’s coming down to what you believe the turnout will be for the 2012 Election. If you assume a near 2008 turnout of Democrat +7, as many of the state polls are doing, Obama is going to win handily. If closer to Even – D+3, Romney can win in a number of these Battleground states. I’m still thinking it will be closer to D+3 or less. That’s why I’m sticking for now with the current projection. We’ll see what new polls this weekend and Monday show us.
*Added two new polls for Florida. Mason-Dixon, one of the best polling organizations, shows Romney +6 in Florida. By contrast, NBC/WSJ/Marist shows Obama +2.
*Good morning! Started this Saturday by adding two new polls for Ohio showing Barack Obama with leads of +4 and +6. No internals available for the We Ask America poll showing Obama up by 4. But the NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll showing Obama +6 uses a Democrat +9 sample! Of course, Ohio was actually around +5 (+8 Exit Polls) in 2008. It is becoming clear that in Ohio, and other states, the polling averages will favor Obama. These polls with such heavy Democrat samples make that a certainty. Either they are going to be right and Obama wins big, or they are going to be really, really wrong. So, in making a projection, you will either have to go with the polls and against what Gallup, Rasmussen, and Pew show as the current Party I.D., which is much closer to Even or R+1-D+1, or believe Obama is going to have the same turnout and enthusiasm he did in 2008.
Map and Projection Notes for 11/02/12:
*Added a new Rasmussen Poll for Michigan showing Obama +5.
*Added a new Survey USA Poll for Colorado showing Obama +2. It uses a Democrat +1 sample.
*Added a new CNN/ORC poll for Ohio showing Obama +3. That’s down one-point from their previous Ohio poll.
*Just added a new Rasmussen Poll for Ohio showing the race tied at 49%.*Added two new polls for Nebraska, both showing Mitt Romney up by double-digits.
Check out a very interesting report in the New York Times saying the race in Pennsylvania may be “tilting to Romney.”
*Good Morning! To start the day, we added a new poll for New Hampshire showing President Obama up by 6 points. As a result, we have moved New Hampshire from Romney to Obama. It’s still very much borderline, but Obama seems to have a little momentum from the Hurricane Sandy aftermath. We’ll see how other polls show New Hampshire over the weekend.
*Moving New Hampshire changes the Electoral Vote Projection to Romney 275, Obama 263 as of now. This is not a final projection. Ohio and Iowa are still very much borderline calls. We’ll watch late polling this weekend and the National polling trend to make a final decision on these. We will particularly look at polls that use a more reasonable sample to determine how it appears those states will go.
*Added a new poll for Indiana showing Romney +10. Hard to believe Obama won Indiana in 2008.
Map and Projection Notes for 11/01/12:
*Added two polls each for Nevada and Washington. The race in Nevada remains close. Obama up big in Washington.
*Added more polls – NH, CO, WI.
*Added a new poll for Ohio from Wenzel Strategies showing Mitt Romney up by 3 points. They used a Democrat +5 sample and still found Romney ahead.
*Added two new Iowa polls – Rasmussen shows Romney up by 1 while NBC/WSJ/Marist in their usual role has Obama up by 6. That’s down from 8-point leads they have shown for Obama their previous two polls in Iowa.
*Two new Colorado Polls added – showing exactly opposite results. Rasmussen has Romney +3 while We Ask America has Obama +3.
*Good Morning! Just five days until Election Day 2012! We start today with three new polls from Wisconsin. Marquette shows President Obama with a big 8-point lead using a Democrat +5 sample. However, NBC/WSJ/Marist has it only a 3-point lead for Obama also using a Democrat +5 sample. Most of their polls have been extremely favorable for Democrats this Election cycle. Rasmussen shows the race tied at 49% (Rasmussen does not indicate their sample data in the public pages, at least not that I can find). I would say Wisconsin is close to a tossup considering Rasmussen and the NBC poll together. We’ll leave it in Obama’s Column, but by Election Day, we’ll see what other polls are out and what the reports are on the ground there. With Paul Ryan on the ticket, this could be a real chance for Romney. Many more polls to come throughout the day. Stay tuned. . . .
Map and Projection Notes for 10/31/12:
*Added polls for Florida (2), Virginia, Michigan, Ohio. Still several polls to go. I’ll get them added in the morning, along with other new polls that surface in the morning. Right now, the projection stays the same – not based solely on polls. We’ll make a final projection early morning on November 6 before voting begins.
*Just posted the first of many polls that have come out through the day. It’s been a very busy day, and I’m just now getting to the updates. The first two polls are from Iowa, one showing Mitt Romney up by 1 point, the other showing Obama up by 2. Many more polls to come this evening. Stay tuned. . . .
*Good Morning! Just added three new polls from CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac for OH, FL, and VA. Of course, as has been their track record throughout this campaign, they use heavily-Democrat samples that assume there will be greater Democrat turnout and enthusiasm for Barack Obama in 2012 than there was in 2008. In Ohio, they find Obama up by 5 using a Democrat +8 sample. In Florida, they find Obama up by one-point using a Democrat +7 sample, and in Virginia they show Obama with a 2-point lead using a Democrat +8 sample. It will be interesting to see if this is Quinnipiac’s last round of polls, or if they do one more and change their sample before Election Day.
It’s going to be another very busy day for me. I’ll try and post some updates later this morning, but it may be tonight before I can get everything updated from what comes out today. Have a great day!
Map and Projection Notes for 10/30/12:
*A new shock poll is out from Michigan tonight showing Mitt Romney pulling within three points of Barack Obama. This is the second poll in the last week showing the race at 3 points or less. This would explain why the Obama Campaign started buying air time for ads in Michigan today.
*Just added a new poll for Ohio by Survey USA showing Obama +3. That’s the same margin they found in their last poll of Ohio. They use a Democrat +6 sample. Independents break for Mitt Romney by 11-points, and those who say they will vote on Election Day choose Romney 50%-41%. Much of the Obama support in the poll is on the strength of early-voting.
*Added new polls for North Carolina and Georgia – both from Survey USA. The NC poll shows Romney up by 5 and at the 50% mark. Romney leads by 8 in Georgia.
*Just added a new FL poll from Survey USA. They find it tied at that familiar number for Barack Obama – 47%. This is a one-point improvement for Romney over their poll last week. In the write-up on the poll, Survey USA says Romney leads Obama by 18-points among the most reliable voting group in FLorida – Senior Citizens. It appears Obama has lost his attempt to disqualify Romney on Medicare. Survey USA used a Democrat +5 sample, and they say bluntly: “Romney leads by 18 points among seniors, who are the most reliable voters. This gives Romney an advantage heading into the final week of campaigning. If younger voters do not turn out in the numbers shown here, Obama will under-perform this poll.”
*Interesting poll out of Oregon by Elway Research showing Obama only +6 against Romney, and only at 47%. If that’s accurate, you know Romney is doing well across the country.
*NOTE: I continue to be asked about putting Ohio in Romney’s column. I have explained multiple times that I am not basing projections strictly on the current polling average. I believe the race in Ohio is basically tied, and Romney’s lead in National Polls makes me think he will win Ohio if things continue as they currently are. Ohio has historically tracked with the national election results. I have not made a Final Projection. Things could certainly change by Election Day. I have said from the beginning that I will use polls AND other factors to make a projection. So many of the polls in Ohio have used extremely heavy Democrat samples thus far. The polls with more realistic samples (Dem +5 or less) are showing the race virtually tied. We’ll see what happens over the next 7 days.
*Good Morning! Added a North Carolina poll from Elon Univ. showing Romney and Obama tied there at 45%. They used a Democrat +9 sample for the poll.
*We are going to list state polls from TCJ Research, but won’t put them in the averages since they are relatively new and don’t appear to be listed anywhere else. That way we can see how they do when compared to the final results.
*It’s going to be a very busy day for me. But I’ll post poll updates as I am able through the day, and will get everything updated by late evening. Hope you have a great day!
Map and Projection Notes for 10/29/12:
*Just added a new poll for Wisconsin showing Mitt Romney +2.
*Added a new poll for Ohio showing Mitt Romney up by 3-pts.
*Posted a new Florida poll showing Romney up by 1. Busy afternoon and evening. Will post some updates as I am able to do so. Otherwise, will get everything updated late this evening.
*ARG is out with a new Colorado poll showing Mitt Romney up by 1-pt.
*Just added a new Rasmussen Poll for Ohio showing Mitt Romney with a 2-point lead over President Obama.
*Good Morning! It’s a new week and we begin with a poll from our friends at Public Policy Polling. Once again, they find President Obama leading by a slim 1-pt. margin in Florida. They use a Democrat +5 sample for the poll. We keep Florida in Romney’s column on the strength of multiple other polls showing him ahead there, and because of a Mason-Dixon Poll on the crucial “I-4 Corridor” that shows Romney ahead by 6-points in that pivotal part of the state:
Wow, Mason-Dixon’s Coker goes bold, calls FL for Romney after his poll shows R up 51-45 in I-4 corridor ttp://bit.ly/RnohN4— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) October 28, 2012
@arifleischer New Mason Dixon poll for Tamp Bay Times shows Romney with 6pt lead in I-4 Corridor. It’s over in FL— Richard Baris (@RichBaris) October 28, 2012
We added 75 new state polls last week.
Map and Projection Notes for 10/28/12:
*Yet another poll from the folks at Public Policy Polling, this time in Ohio, and once again showing Obama leading, this time +4. And, as you might expect, they use a Democrat +8 sample that results in a 4-point Obama lead. We’ll leave Ohio in Romney’s column until other pollsters show Obama ahead using a sample that is at least equal to what actual Ohio turnout was in 2008 – Dem +5. I think it will be closer to Even than that in 2012.Suffolk and the Columbus Dispatch used +4 and +3 Democrat samples in recent polls and found it tied in Ohio. With Romney’s lead among Independents in virtually every poll, I think that means a Romney win if it is tied. We’ll see how the polls develop as the week moves on.
*Just added a new poll for Ohio from Gravis Marketing. It shows Obama up by 1-pt, using a Democrat +8 sample. Despite the Dem +8 sample, in the poll Romney leads 52%-46% among those who have not yet voted, and leads 53%-41% among Independents.
*Added a poll for New Hampshire from Public Policy Polling that shows a 2-pt. lead for Barack Obama. Mysteriously, they use a Democrat +2 sample after using a GOP +4 sample about a week ago when they found Mitt Romney up by 1-pt. Amazingly, by shifting the sample by six-points in the Democrats favor, they find a 2-pt. lead for Obama!
*Added two New York Polls. No surprise. Obama up big in both.
*Added a new Ohio poll from the Columbus Dispatch/Ohio News Poll which shows the race tied at 49%. More polls coming. . . .
*Good Morning! Just added two new polls, one for CA and a SHOCK poll for Minnesota. The Minneapolis Star-Tribune Poll out this morning shows President Obama at a weak 47%, only three points ahead of Mitt Romney. If Romney is actually within three of Obama in very blue Minnesota, he’s not trailing in Virginia, Ohio and many of the other Battleground States. Time will tell how accurate this is.
*As we start the day – 11 days before Election Day – our Electoral Vote Projection is holding at Romney 279, Obama 259. This is using a “No Tossups” model, and is based on polls AND other factors – not strictly the polling averages for states. The Gallup and Rasmussen National Tracking Poll trends are taken into account, as are reports on the ground in states like Ohio and Iowa. At this point, it is a best guess. A Final Projection will be posted early on Election Day, November 6.
Map and Projection Notes for 10/27/12:
*Added two more polls, one for VA and one for NJ. Word is out on Twitter that tomorrow the Minneapolis Star-Tribune will show a poll finding Mitt Romney down only three, 47%-44% in Minnesota. In fact, it was apparently posted and then the page went blank, displaying only an error message. That may just be because they wanted to save it for tomorrow. . . .or:
If Obama is at 47% in VERY blue Minnesota. . . . . .?
*Some have wondered how I can put Ohio in Mitt Romney’s column. Once again, I am now using a “No Tossups” map, meaning I’m projecting what I believe is going to happen with each state. Admittedly, Ohio and Iowa are essentially tied, and no one really knows what is going to happen for certain. But I’m not making projections strictly on current polling averages, unlike some projection sites. I’ve said from the beginning I’m going to use polling averages AND other factors to make a projection. I am putting Ohio in Romney’s column because of his national lead in the Gallup and Rasmussen Polls. Ohio has a history of tracking very close to the national vote margin in Presidential Elections. If Romney wins by 3-4 points, I just don’t see Ohio deviating that much from its track record. I also believe Romney has the momentum right now, and that will help carry him to victory. While Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early/absentee voting in Ohio right now, their numbers are reportedly not what they were in 2008. Also, Romney’s lead with Independents in virtually every poll – sometimes a very wide lead – will make a huge difference in my view. My current map projection is NOT the Final Projection, as I stated clearly. If the national polls and early voting margin, as well as Romney’s margin with Independents begins to change, then my projection would likely change as well. If Romney has the momentum and his national lead holds, we should start seeing some red polls in Ohio by the end of next week. If we don’t, it could mean Romney is in trouble there. We’ll see!
*Here are two guys you can follow who are keeping up with all things Ohio. Larry Schweikert was/is a Professor at the Univ. in Dayton, Ohio, is my understanding:
Ohio: In my bellwether counties, GOP is up by 0.1% out of 240,606 cast! In 2008, GOP were down 7.3% in same counties. (per election offices)— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) October 27, 2012
@davidlimbaugh kicking butt. Ignore polls: 8pt swing in early vote and Rs have very slight lead in key counties–O can’t win w/o HUGE lead— Larry Schweikart (@LSchweikart) October 27, 2012
According to one GOP operative D officials have “deer in the headlights” look of uncomprehension “they really cant believe what is happening— Larry Schweikart (@LSchweikart) October 27, 2012
Ohio will go where Independents go. In ’08 it was Obama. In ’10 it was with GOP who won every statewide office. I’m keeping eye on Indy’s.— Jim Heath (@JimHeath10TV) October 28, 2012
*Added another VA poll and a poll for MN.
*Added a new VA poll. More polls coming later today . . .
*It’s significant to note that both Rasmussen and Gallup show Romney at or above 50% again today. Rasmussen is +4 and Gallup +5 for Romney. In addition, Gallup’s Job Approval for Obama is not underwater at only 46% approve. It dropped two points today. If Mitt Romney wins the national vote by 3-4 points, he will win enough Electoral Votes to be elected. We’ll see how this trend develops as we head into the final week of the campaign.
*Just added a Missouri poll by Mason-Dixon showing Romney +13. Missouri is no doubt in Romney’s column. John McCain just barely eked out a less than 1% win over Obama in Missouri in 2008. Until 08, Missouri had voted for the winner in every election going back more than 50 years. If Romney wins Missouri by close to double-digits, I just do not believe Missouri will be that far off what the rest of the nation does. It’s a good bellweather of how the nation will vote.
*Also added a new Rasmussen poll showing Romney +6 in North Carolina.
*Good Morning! To start the day, we added two new polls for Pennsylvania showing the race much closer than anyone would have thought it could. Obama is ahead, but not by the 10-point margin he won PA by in 2008.
*As we start the day – 11 days before Election Day – our Electoral Vote Projection is holding at Romney 279, Obama 259.
Map and Projection Notes for 10/26/12:
*Added a new Ohio Poll from a fairly new polling organization from The Conservative Journal – TJC Research. It uses an even sample and shows Mitt Romney +3. We’ll see how their polls fare with this year’s election results. It will be interesting to see how well they do compared to the other pollsters. They polled well a number of the 2010 House Races.
*Added a new shock poll out of Oregon showing Barack Obama only leading Mitt Romney by 5-pts.
*Added new polls for Florida and Virginia.
*Added two new North Carolina Polls, and another Ohio poll. Romney up in North Carolina, and CNN finds Obama still ahead +4 in Ohio – same as their last poll. We’ll stick with Ohio in Romney’s Column for now on the strength of several recent polls showing it tied there. If tied, with Romney’s advantage nationally, I think Ohio would go to Romney if he wins nationally by 2-3 points. Ohio’s results in past elections have mirrored the national vote percentages, with Republicans generally slightly outperforming their national vote and Democrats slightly under-performing their national numbers. It’s a very close call right now.
*Added two new Ohio polls, both showing Obama with a 2-pt. lead. Once again, they had Democrat +9 and +7 samples respectively. It was Dem +5 in 2008 at the height of Obama-mania.
*Added polls for Iowa and Arizona. The Gravis poll for Iowa has it Obama +4. But it’s actually a fairly good poll for Romney. Gravis uses a Democrat +6 sample and the poll shows Romney winning Independent voters +12. The actual Party ID in Iowa has been near even. So if the turnout is closer to Dem +1 instead of Dem +6, you could have a very different result. It’s going to be fascinating to see what the turnout ends up being in these battleground states.
*Good Morning! We start today with a Sunshine State News poll out of Florida confirming it has moved Mitt Romney’s way. They show Romney +5, 51%-46%. More polls to come, especially this afternoon and evening. . .
*Our Electoral Vote Projection holding at Romney 279, Obama 259.
Map and Projection Notes for 10/25/12:
*9:50 PM – Posted our first “No Tossups” Map showing Mitt Romney ahead 279-259. From this point forward, the map will make a projection for each state. This is not a final projection. I fully expect we will see states move back and forth over the last 11 days of the campaign. We’ll post a final projection early morning on November 6 before voting gets underway. It’s going to be interesting to watch!
Posted two new polls for Connecticut, one of them from Mason-Dixon showing Obama up only +7. They also show Obama at 49% in a state he won in 2008 by 22-points.
*Added new polls for New York and Nevada (Obama +3).
*Added new polls for Pennsylvania (Obama +5) and North Carolina (Tied). Of course, that NC poll is from PPP. The use a Democrat +9 sample and survey 55% women vs. 45% men. Three other polls in recent days have shown leads of +4, +6, and +9 for Romney in NC.
Two new polls from Colorado – NBC/WSJ/Marist has it tied and PPP has it Obama +4.
*Added a new Virginia Poll showing Romney +2. More polls coming . . . .
*Added an interesting PPIC poll for California showing Obama up only +12. Obama won California by 24-points in 2008.
*Added a new poll for VA from PPP again showing an Obama lead, this time +5. PPP is Democrat-leaning and they have consistently been showing Obama leading Virginia when Rasmussen, ARG, and others have not. They used a Democrat +4 sample.
*Good Morning! We start the day with a poll for Florida showing Romney +1. It’s actually a great poll for Mitt Romney because Gravis uses a Democrat +8 sample, even though in 2008, the turnout was Democrat +3. In spite of that heavy-Democrat sample, Romney reaches 50% in the poll and leads by one point. Inside the poll you also see that Obama has only 44% job approval, and Romney wins Independent voters by 10-points. For now, we’ll keep Florida in Romney’s column because of these internals, and because he has consistently had a lead, even though small, in numerous polls with these heavily Democrat samples.
Map and Projection Notes for 10/24/12:
*Added polls for Nevada (Obama +4) and Ohio. The Ohio poll is from Time Magazine which uses a Democrat +9 sample and finds a five-point lead for Obama. In 2008, with Obama’s wave election, he managed to win Ohio by 4.6%, and the actual party ID was around Dem +5. Time believes Democrat enthusiasm for Obama in Ohio is going to be nearly twice what it was in 2008! These kinds of polls obviously inflate the average for Obama. But even including it, Obama leads by only 1.7%, and Ohio has a history of the Republican doing at or slightly better than their national vote percentage and the Democrat doing slightly worse.
*Added a new shock Michigan Poll showing the race there TIED 47%-47%. It’s been a very busy day. More polls to be added this evening. . . .
*Added a poll for Arkansas. There haven’t been many of those. Romney +27.
*Added a new poll for NV showing Obama +2 there.
*Added a new NH poll showing Romney +2.
*An interesting state-by-state rundown on Republican momentum in Absentee and Early Voting:
Check out my new memo “GOP Ground Game Momentum – Absentee & Early Voting” here bit.ly/WIGgkl and retweet, mahalo— Rick Wiley (@rick_wiley) October 24, 2012
*Rasmussen is out with an Ohio Poll showing the race tied at 48%. That’s three of the last four Ohio polls showing it tied.
*We start the day with a new Survey USA Poll out of Ohio. They use a Democrat +7 sample and show Obama +3. That’s the same lead they found a week ago using the same Dem +7 sample. We should see more polls out of Ohio today, and many other states. Just 12 days to Election Day . . .
Map and Projection Notes for 10/23/12:
*State of the Race, 10:25 PM ET: As another day winds down, Mitt Romney’s momentum seems to be moving forward. He stands at 50% for the first time in the two key daily tracking polls, Rasmussen and Gallup. He has been at least 50% in Gallup for 8 consecutive days. Even the IDB/TIPP Tracking Poll has moved back to just Obama +2 after being an outlandish Obama +7 just a few days ago (they insist on using a Dem +7 sample for their poll). Romney has expanded the map, now polling close to Obama in Iowa, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. We have put Virginia, North Carolina and Florida in Romney’s Column, even though from a pure polling average standpoint, that may seem premature. But the “gut-feeling” I have from how the Campaigns talk about those states, how they are visiting or not visiting those states, and from a polling organization like Suffolk saying over a week ago they won’t even poll those states further because they are going to Romney – all of those factor into that decision. If a consistent pattern changes that, we will move them to a new status. Ohio remains the key state, and recent polls show it very close. I think Romney is going to have the enthusiasm advantage in the state, but we’ll see if we see some red polls before the end of the week. It does appear that whoever wins Ohio is going to win the election. High drama with 13 days to go!
*Added three new polls for North Dakota. Two of them recent and one a little older that I missed earlier. Romney way ahead as expected there.
*Added an older poll for New Mexico I had missed previously.
*Added a new poll for WI showing Obama +2. Also added another CT poll.
*Added polls for Minnesota and Connecticut (2).
*Just added polls for New Hampshire and Nevada. Many more polls to go today. . . .
*National Tracking Polls – Rasmussen up to Romney +4 hitting 50% for the first time. Gallup at +5 with Romney 51%.
*We start the day with a poll out of Washington showing Obama +13.
*Map and Projection Notes for 10/21/12
*11:05 PM ET: Added polls for Missouri, Michigan, Ohio. The Ohio Poll from Angus-Reid shows it tied 48%-48%.
*PPP is active today. They are out with a new poll for Iowa showing a 1-pt. Obama lead using a Democrat +7 sample. That’s after yesterday issuing an Iowa poll showing Romney with a 1-pt. lead using a GOP +4 sample! More polls coming tonight. . .
*Posted a new PPP Florida poll showing Romney +1.
*9:50 AM ET: No new state polls out yet today. Will likely see some later today.
Map & Projection Notes for 10/20/12
Two Maryland Polls added. Very safe for Obama.
*Added a CA poll. Obama up by 15 over Romney. Obama won CA by 24-points in 2008.
*I posted a new OH poll by Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling. They show Romney closing to within 1-point of Obama. They had Obama up by 5-points last weekend. PPP used a Democrat +8 Sample this time!
*The polls keep pouring in. Just added new polls for WI, NJ(2), VA.
*A new Florida poll from Survey USA is out giving Obama a 1-point lead, but using a Democrat +9 sample! In the 2008 Obama wave, it was only Democrat +3!
*Added a new Gravis Poll for Ohio showing the race tied using a Democrat +9 sample! The poll shows Obama with only a 44% Job Approval rating in Ohio and Romney winning Independents in the state 52%-33%! Obama is only +4 with Women Voters. Overall, a devastating poll for Barack Obama. If the sample was anywhere near reality of what the turnout is likely to be, Romney would be ahead by several points. At some point, some pollster is going to have to adjust their Party ID Sample to reflect what the 2012 turnout is likely to be. In 2008 at the height of Obama’s popularity, Ohio’s turnout was +8 Democrat and Obama won by 5 points. 2004 turnout was +5 Democrat.
Polling & Map Notes 10/19/12:
*Another new FL poll added showing Romney with a lead there. Check here for historical insight into how Ohio has a track record of mirroring the National Popular Vote.
*Two new Fox News Polls added for FL, OH. Romney +3 in Florida, Obama +3 in Ohio with a Dem +8 Sample. Romney gaining ground.
*Democrat-leaning Pollster Public Policy Polling has new polls for IA and NH – both showing Mitt Romney ahead by 1-point.
*New poll for FL posted confirming the state is in Romney’s column.
*A new MO poll is out showing Romney +11. If accurate, that is very telling. MO barely went for McCain in 2008, and if Obama is 10 points weaker now than four years ago, he is in trouble across the nation. I just don’t think Missouri would be that far off from the rest of the nation. We’ll see if that kind of margin holds.
*Earlier, we posted a new NC poll, and a poll out of VA showing Romney hitting 50%, and with a 3-point lead.