Here is video of Political Consultant Dick Morris on “Fox & Friends” this morning where he explained why his “landslide” for Mitt Romney prediction did not come to pass.
Essentially, Morris said what every other pundit and observer who got it wrong – including people like Michael Barone and Karl Rove – have said. The American Electorate has indeed fundamentally shifted to the Democrats – now at Democratic +6 or +7. It was +7 in 2008 for Obama, which conservatives chalked up to the one-time enthusiasm for Barack Obama. As it turns out, it appears to be more demographic in nature. Morris pointed out that the exit polls from yesterday revealed Hispanics, Blacks, and Young Voters are an increased portion of the Electorate. Morris said the new reality will make it difficult for any Republican to get elected nationally again.
I think Morris is right. I did not believe that – as he did not – prior to yesterday. But it is the new reality.
Here is video of political consultant Dick Morris on with Bill O’Reilly last night where he continued to predict a Mitt Romney “landslide,” and that Romney will win more than 300 Electoral Votes.
Morris has been saying this for 9 months. He’s out on the limb as far as a person can go. It will be fascinating to see if he turns out to be right!
Here is video of Dick Morris explaining – as only he can – the big shift in Party I.D. that Gallup has uncovered in their polling and why that makes such a huge difference. Morris believes it “presages a very significant win” for Mitt Romney. Since many of the polls this year have used the 2008 turnout model of Democrat +7 or greater, this helps explain why there is such a discrepancy between state polls and national polls like Gallup and Rasmussen, that are using a more realistic turnout model for their polling.
Dick Morris has been predicting a big Romney win for nine months. We’ll see in just nine days whether he is right.
Here is video of political consultant Dick Morris telling Sean Hannity “if the election were held today, Romney would win by 4-5 points.”
Morris said people have to understand that “the polling this year is the worst it’s ever been.” He said the polling organizations are using “crazy models” assuming a Democratic edge of 6-7 points. Morris believes it will be more like a +3 Democratic edge in turnout.
I really don’t know what to think. Morris is right that a vast number of the polls are using a turnout model of +6 Democrat or more, in some cases. Rasmussen is not, and his polls are showing some troubling signs for Romney in certain places too. But I do think it is much closer than the media wants anyone to believe, and Romney can still win if he has strong debate performances. If the turnout ends up being closer to Democrat only +1 or less, then the current polling will be off by a mile from what actually winds up happening. Time will tell.
Here is video of Dick Morris talking about what he believes is Barack Obama’s “fundamental strategic mistake.” Morris says Obama’s decision to run to the Left, focusing on class warfare rather than as a more centrist candidate, is not the way to win the election. In the end, Morris believes more voters will fear a second-term of Barack Obama and his Leftist policies than they will fear Mitt Romney – no matter how much Obama tries to demonize him.
It will be interesting to see if what Dick Morris is saying turns out to be correct. He has posted an article that says much of the current polling is skewed in favor of Barack Obama in an attempt to create a sense of momentum for him. Morris says he has seen polls of likely voters in key swing states and it paints a very different picture:
DICK MORRIS.COM: The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days. The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win. To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one. . . . Read More
There is no question that much of the current polling is using a polling sample that is heavily skewed toward the Democrats, sometimes polling anywhere from five to eleven percent more Democrats than Republicans. If what Morris is saying is correct, we will see the polls begin to reflect the truth as we get into October and head toward November. I have to believe that in the end, most of these pollsters will want to be able to say they were close to accurate even if they are devoted to Barack Obama.
Here is Dick Morris giving his political analysis of the impact of the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold ObamaCare as a “tax.” In short, Morris said “Obama won the battle, but he’ll lose the war.” Morris called this a “political disaster for Obama,” because it is an issue that is consistently 55-40% against ObamaCare among voters. Morris believes as time wears on, support will move to Romney as he makes the repeal of ObamaCare one of his two main issues, along with the disastrous Obama Economy. He closes by saying believes “Obama will rue the day that he won” in the Supreme Court.
Obama’s too egotistical to ever “rue the day” he did anything. He’ll blame someone else. But I do think this can galvanize support for Romney. Obama will likely get a short-term bump from the decision, but by the time the two conventions roll around in late August, the real state of the race will become much more clear.
Here is Dick Morris a few days ago (Monday) talking about the state of the 2012 Presidential race. He points out he is about the only one saying Romney is likely to win in a landslide over Obama, based on the polling he is looking at, and that he is doing himself.
Morris’s main point is that “undecided voters” break about 90% for the challenger in a Presidential Election. So, if Obama is at 45% in the polls and Romney is at 46%, Romney does not have just a one-point lead. He’s actually ahead by around a 53%-46% margin because of how the undecideds will vote. As you look at Obama’s poll numbers, he is largely in a range between 43% – 46%. If he stays in that range as November approaches, there is virtually no way he can win, even if polls show Romney at around 46%. Most of the late-deciders will go to the challenger.
Here is video of Political Consultant Dick Morris telling Bill O’Reilly last night that everything he’s sees right now on the political front is pointing to a “tremendous Romney victory.”
Morris particularly cited his own poll done May 5-11,2012 of 6,000 “Likely Voters” across the country, with a Margin of Error of less than 0.5%, that he says showed Romney leading Obama 52%-42%. Morris also says that based on past Presidential Elections, the challenger gets 90% of the undecided vote on Election Day. That means if Obama is not at 50% or above going into Election Day, he is highly unlikely to get enough of the late deciders to win.
I hope Morris is right!!!
Here is video of Dick Morris on with Greta tonight where he said (4:57 mark) if the 2012 Election were held right now, Gov. Mitt Romney would win “overwhelmingly” over Barack Obama. Morris said Obama “might win eight or ten states.”
“The Likely Voter Polling is so overwhelming that he (Romney) is really headed for a rout.”