President Barack Obama’s first term average job approval rating was near the bottom of a list of recent Presidents. According to Gallup, Obama’s average approval rating was 49.1% for the four years, just ahead of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter.
GALLUP: President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup’s final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to the two major candidates, Gallup’s final allocated estimate of the race is 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama. . . Read More
Gallup has posted information today from their polling on people across the nation who have already voted, and they find Mitt Romney leading 52%-46%. Among those who say they still intend to early-vote, they find a tie 49%-49%. But among people who say they will vote on election day, Romney leads 51%-45%:
It’s early – but those are good signs for Mitt Romney.
Here is video from “The Five” yesterday, where Democrat Strategist Bob Beckel said flatly that if the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll’s numbers are accurate, giving Mitt Romney a 52%-45% lead as of yesterday, “It’s over. It’s. over.” Beckel went on to say if those numbers are correct, there is no way that Mitt Romney, as a “challenger candidate,” is going to come back down under 50%. Bob Beckel has been active in Democratic Politics for decades, and actually ran Walter Mondale’s 1984 Campaign, in which Mondale lost 49 states to President Ronald Reagan.
Now Beckel did make it clear he’s not sure the numbers are accurate. I must agree with him there. I would not be at all surprised for that lead to get smaller over the weekend. Democrats often poll much better on weekends, and other tracking polls have the race much closer (Rasmussen is at Romney +2). This time next week will tell us a lot more. If Romney is still above 50% a week from now, then Beckel’s “it’s over” statement may apply. We’ll see.
Here is Karl Rove pointing out that no Presidential Candidate over 50% in the Gallup “Likely Voter” Poll in mid-October has ever gone on to lose the Election. Mitt Romney moved out to a 51%-45% lead over Barack Obama today.
I’ll post some of the Twitter reaction below:
Gallup: Mitt 51, Obama 45 among likely voters. No candidate who cleared 50% of likely voters in Gallup in October or later has ever lost.— Ken Gardner (@kesgardner) October 17, 2012
Gallup: Romney 51, Obama 45.Worth saying that no candidate, in the history of Gallup, has ever been above 50% this late and lost.— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) October 17, 2012
Gallup: Romney up 2 among RVs, 48-46 and 6 among LVs 51-45. Big jump in last two days…— NumbersMuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 17, 2012
Fun Gallup tidbit – if undecideds break 2/3 to challenger, Romney would be up 53-46 w/ 1% 3rd party. Very similar to 2008 margin flipped.— NumbersMuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 17, 2012
Gallup is reporting that Mitt Romney won the first Presidential Debate by “historic” margins, and that his victory has him dead-even with Barack Obama in their tracking poll for the three days following the debate. Obama had been leading their poll of “Registered Voters” by a 5-point margin prior to the debate. This is not Gallup’s full 7-day Tracking Poll, which still includes several days prior to the debate, but only using the three-days of polling done post-debate:
Once again, notice that Gallup is still using a “Registered Voter” model instead of the more accurate “Likely Voter” model. If they ever switch to “Likely Voters” (it’s less than a month to Election Day), the numbers could get even better for Romney.
Here is Gallup’s Frank Newport on MSNBC yesterday, where he said “September 7-13″ will be when the “bounce” results from the two Conventions will really become evident. Monday will give some indication of what kind of “bounce” Mitt Romney is getting from the Republican National Convention, but those numbers will quickly be impacted by the start of the Democrat National Convention, which starts on Tuesday. Historically, Newport said the average bounce is 5 points, with Democrats usually getting a slightly larger bounce than Republicans. In 2008, Barack Obama got a 4 point bounce, while John McCain an 8 point bounce.
GALLUP: U.S. military veterans and those currently on active military duty are less likely to approve of President Obama’s job performance than are Americans of comparable ages who are not in the military.
These results are based on an analysis of more than 238,000 interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from January 2010 through April 2011. Respondents were classified as veterans/active-duty military based on responses to a series of questions probing whether any member of the household had served in the U.S. military, and whether the respondent himself or herself had served and, if so, whether the respondent was currently on active duty. Americans currently serving in the military overseas or on ships at sea would not be included in this national cell and landline telephone sample.
Thirty-seven percent of all active-duty military personnel and veterans surveyed approved of the job Obama is doing during the January 2010 to April 2011 time frame. That compares with 48% of nonveterans interviewed during the same period. . . . . Read More
Gallup is out with a new poll today on the 2012 GOP Nomination race, and it shows Donald Trump tied with Mike Huckabee for the lead nationally:
GALLUP: Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup’s latest update of Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support. . . . Read More
NOTE: We’ll get this and a few other polls added to our polling data later today.
Here is audio of Gallup’s Frank Newport saying that Herman Cain should be added to the list of GOP Candidates who “could make a difference” in the 2012 GOP Nomination race. Newport said Cain only has 21% recognition among GOP voters nationwide – but among those who know of him, he generates a lot of enthusiasm. That could make Cain a real factor in caucuses and primaries, where low-turnout is often a reality. Newport also mentioned Michele Bachmann as another GOP candidate who generates a lot of enthusiasm among those who know of her.
As Cain becomes more well-known by Republicans, particularly through the upcoming debates, he could make a real splash with GOP voters.