President Barack Obama’s first term average job approval rating was near the bottom of a list of recent Presidents. According to Gallup, Obama’s average approval rating was 49.1% for the four years, just ahead of Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter.
GALLUP:
President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are within one percentage point of each other in Gallup’s final pre-election survey of likely voters, with Romney holding 49% of the vote, and Obama 48%. After removing the 3% of undecided voters from the results and allocating their support proportionally to the two major candidates, Gallup’s final allocated estimate of the race is 50% for Romney and 49% for Obama. . . Read More
Gallup’s Final “Allocated Estimate” of the 2012 Presidential Race: Romney 50%, Obama 49%
Gallup has posted information today from their polling on people across the nation who have already voted, and they find Mitt Romney leading 52%-46%. Among those who say they still intend to early-vote, they find a tie 49%-49%. But among people who say they will vote on election day, Romney leads 51%-45%:
It’s early – but those are good signs for Mitt Romney.
Gallup Survey Finds Mitt Romney Leading among Early-Voters Nationwide 52%-46% – 10/29/12
Here is video from “The Five” yesterday, where Democrat Strategist Bob Beckel said flatly that if the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll’s numbers are accurate, giving Mitt Romney a 52%-45% lead as of yesterday, “It’s over. It’s. over.” Beckel went on to say if those numbers are correct, there is no way that Mitt Romney, as a “challenger candidate,” is going to come back down under 50%. Bob Beckel has been active in Democratic Politics for decades, and actually ran Walter Mondale’s 1984 Campaign, in which Mondale lost 49 states to President Ronald Reagan.
Now Beckel did make it clear he’s not sure the numbers are accurate. I must agree with him there. I would not be at all surprised for that lead to get smaller over the weekend. Democrats often poll much better on weekends, and other tracking polls have the race much closer (Rasmussen is at Romney +2). This time next week will tell us a lot more. If Romney is still above 50% a week from now, then Beckel’s “it’s over” statement may apply. We’ll see.
Democrat Bob Beckel on Gallup Tracking Poll Showing Romney at 52%: “IF those Numbers are Correct, It is Over. It is Over.” – Video 10/18/12
Here is Karl Rove pointing out that no Presidential Candidate over 50% in the Gallup “Likely Voter” Poll in mid-October has ever gone on to lose the Election. Mitt Romney moved out to a 51%-45% lead over Barack Obama today.
Karl Rove: No Candidate over 50% in Gallup “Likely Voter” Poll in Mid-October has Gone on to Lose the Presidential Election; Romney Leads Today 51%-45% – Video 10/17/12
The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll out today shows Gov. Mitt Romney moving out to a 6-point lead over President Barack Obama, 51%-45%. That’s a two-point increase from yesterday, when Romney led 50%-46%.
I’ll post some of the Twitter reaction below:
Romney leads Obama by six points (outside margin of error) in new Gallup poll: wapo.st/RTT8yv via @fixaaron
— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) October 17, 2012
Gallup: Mitt 51, Obama 45 among likely voters. No candidate who cleared 50% of likely voters in Gallup in October or later has ever lost.
— Ken Gardner (@kesgardner) October 17, 2012
Gallup: Romney 51, Obama 45.Worth saying that no candidate, in the history of Gallup, has ever been above 50% this late and lost.
— Adrian Gray (@adrian_gray) October 17, 2012
Gallup: Romney up 2 among RVs, 48-46 and 6 among LVs 51-45. Big jump in last two days…
— NumbersMuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 17, 2012
Fun Gallup tidbit – if undecideds break 2/3 to challenger, Romney would be up 53-46 w/ 1% 3rd party. Very similar to 2008 margin flipped.
— NumbersMuncher (@NumbersMuncher) October 17, 2012
Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Shows Mitt Romney with a Six-Point Lead over Barack Obama – 10/17/12
Gallup is reporting that Mitt Romney won the first Presidential Debate by “historic” margins, and that his victory has him dead-even with Barack Obama in their tracking poll for the three days following the debate. Obama had been leading their poll of “Registered Voters” by a 5-point margin prior to the debate. This is not Gallup’s full 7-day Tracking Poll, which still includes several days prior to the debate, but only using the three-days of polling done post-debate:
Once again, notice that Gallup is still using a “Registered Voter” model instead of the more accurate “Likely Voter” model. If they ever switch to “Likely Voters” (it’s less than a month to Election Day), the numbers could get even better for Romney.
Gallup: Mitt Romney Gains 5-Points on Obama in Post-Debate Polling; Wins First Presidential Debate by “Historic” Margin of 52 Points – 10/8/12
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Here is Gallup’s Frank Newport on MSNBC yesterday, where he said “September 7-13″ will be when the “bounce” results from the two Conventions will really become evident. Monday will give some indication of what kind of “bounce” Mitt Romney is getting from the Republican National Convention, but those numbers will quickly be impacted by the start of the Democrat National Convention, which starts on Tuesday. Historically, Newport said the average bounce is 5 points, with Democrats usually getting a slightly larger bounce than Republicans. In 2008, Barack Obama got a 4 point bounce, while John McCain an 8 point bounce.
“Gallup’s” Frank Newport Talks Post-Convention “Bounce”; Says September 7-13 Will Reveal Impact of Two Nominating Conventions – Video 8/31/12
Gallup is out with interesting numbers that put President Obama’s approval rating in historical perspective one-year ahead of the 2012 Presidential Election.
President Obama’s 43% rating is the second worst for a sitting President one year out from a re-election bid. Only Jimmy Carter was worse at 40% – and you know he lost in a landslide in 1980.
One Year Out from Re-Election Bid, Obama Near Jimmy Carter Approval Numbers – Gallup
President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is absolutely tanking – as evidenced by the latest Gallup Daily Tracking Poll. Obama has now slipped below the dreaded 40% level in approval at 39%, with 54% disapproving of the job he is doing as President.
I wonder if the liberal media will now obsess over Obama’s dismal approval numbers the way they did about George W. Bush? I wouldn’t hold my breath.
President Obama’s Job Approval is Tanking; Now at 39% in Latest Gallup Tracking Poll – 8/14/11
Gallup has released new polling on voters’ preference between President Obama and a “Generic Republican” candidate. They report that their latest survey finds voters moving against President Obama. A “Generic Republican” now leads Obama by eight points at 47%-39%.
Perhaps even more ominous for Obama is that he now trails among Independent voters by 10-points, 44%-34%:
Independent registered voters are currently more likely to vote for the Republican candidate (44%) than for Obama (34%), though one in five do not have an opinion. Republicans and Democrats show strong party loyalty in their vote choices, with Republicans showing somewhat stronger loyalty.
While it is true that Obama won’t face a “Generic Republican,” it shows how ripe many voters are to be won over by whoever the Republican nominee will be. Notice how far below 50% “The One” now is, as Americans begin to ponder the reality that Obama has failed miserably.
Gallup: President Obama Now Trails a “Generic Republican” by 8-Points – 7/14/11
Gallup is out with new Obama Approval Numbers today showing that his bounce after the killing of Osama Bin Laden is largely gone. Perhaps the key number is that among Independents, Obama’s approval is down to 42% – close to where it was on May 1 before Bin Laden was killed (40%).
Gallup: Obama Approval Rating Down to 42% Among Independents
GALLUP: U.S. military veterans and those currently on active military duty are less likely to approve of President Obama’s job performance than are Americans of comparable ages who are not in the military.
These results are based on an analysis of more than 238,000 interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from January 2010 through April 2011. Respondents were classified as veterans/active-duty military based on responses to a series of questions probing whether any member of the household had served in the U.S. military, and whether the respondent himself or herself had served and, if so, whether the respondent was currently on active duty. Americans currently serving in the military overseas or on ships at sea would not be included in this national cell and landline telephone sample.
Thirty-seven percent of all active-duty military personnel and veterans surveyed approved of the job Obama is doing during the January 2010 to April 2011 time frame. That compares with 48% of nonveterans interviewed during the same period. . . . . Read More
Gallup: U.S. Military Veterans/Active Duty Personnel “Less Likely to Approve of Obama’s Job Performance”
Gallup is out with a new poll today on the 2012 GOP Nomination race, and it shows Donald Trump tied with Mike Huckabee for the lead nationally:
GALLUP: Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup’s latest update of Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support. . . . Read More
NOTE: We’ll get this and a few other polls added to our polling data later today.
Donald Trump Tied with Mike Huckabee for GOP Lead in New Gallup Poll – 4/22/11
Here is audio of Gallup’s Frank Newport saying that Herman Cain should be added to the list of GOP Candidates who “could make a difference” in the 2012 GOP Nomination race. Newport said Cain only has 21% recognition among GOP voters nationwide – but among those who know of him, he generates a lot of enthusiasm. That could make Cain a real factor in caucuses and primaries, where low-turnout is often a reality. Newport also mentioned Michele Bachmann as another GOP candidate who generates a lot of enthusiasm among those who know of her.
As Cain becomes more well-known by Republicans, particularly through the upcoming debates, he could make a real splash with GOP voters.
Gallup: Herman Cain “Could Make a Difference” in 2012 GOP Nomination Race – Audio 4/1/11
A new Gallup Poll on the 2012 GOP Nomination race finds Gov. Mike Huckabee leading the potential GOP Field, with Gov. Mitt Romney and Gov. Sarah Palin only two-points behind. Newt Gingrich lags nine-points behind, with the rest of the potential field way back.
We also added a new Public Policy Polling survey out of North Carolina showing Mike Huckabee leading President Obama there by one-point. Obama leads the other potential GOP Challengers. Romney trails Obama by three, and Gingrich trails by four-points. Palin is 10-points down to Obama in North Carolina. Huckabee trailed Obama by four-points in North Carolina last month in the PPP survey. So, he has made a five-point improvement against Obama.
Below is our table showing the polls added over the last several weeks:
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Latest Presidential Polls Added |
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Date of Poll |
Poll |
Leader |
Margin |
|
2/16-21/11 |
Huckabee |
+1 |
|
|
2/18-20/11 |
Huckabee |
+2 |
|
|
2/12-15/11 |
Huckabee, Obama |
Tie |
|
|
2/12/15/11 |
Romney |
+1 |
|
|
2/11-14/11 |
Obama |
+3 |
|
|
2/11-13/11 |
Huckabee |
+3 |
|
|
2/9-13/11 |
Huckabee |
+12 |
|
|
2/9-13/11 |
Huckabee |
+14 |
|
|
2/9-10/11 |
Obama |
+4 |
|
|
2/7-9/11 |
Obama |
+7 |
|
|
1/28-2/7/11 |
Romney |
+30 |
|
|
2/4-6/11 |
Romney |
+3 |
|
|
2/4-6/11 |
Obama |
+6 |
|
|
2/4-6/11 |
Palin |
+3 |
|
|
2/4-6/11 |
Obama |
+15 |
|
|
2/7/11 |
Rasmussen 2012 Election Matchups (Polls done throughout January) |
Romney |
+2 |
|
1/28-30/11 |
Obama |
+15 |
|
|
1/28-30/11 |
Romney |
+4 |
|
|
1/28-30/11 |
Romney |
+7 |
|
|
1/28-30/11 |
Romney |
+4 |
|
|
1/28-30/11 |
Romney |
+6 |
|
|
1/28-30/11 |
Thune |
+25 |
|
|
1/28-30/11 |
Thune |
+20 |
|
|
1/28-30/11 |
DeMint |
+4 |
|
|
1/26-27/11 |
Huckabee |
+13 |
|
|
1/24-28/11 |
Romney |
+6 |
|
|
1/24-28/11 |
Huckabee |
+1 |
|
|
1/25-27/11 |
Romney, Palin |
+2 |
|
|
1/21-23/11 |
Huckabee |
+2 |
|
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Other Poll Information: 2012 Presidential General Election Polls 2012 Presidential Election State Polls 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination Polls 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination State Polls
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