Karl Rove has a Wall Street Journal column today in which he predicts Gov. Mitt Romney will win the Presidency by a 51%-48% margin, and get at least 279 Electoral Votes. Here are the closing paragraphs of the column:
WALL STREET JOURNAL – Karl Rove: . . . Are Democrats bringing out episodic voters who might not otherwise turn out? Not according to Ms. Nallen. She says that about 90% of each party’s early voters so far had also voted in three of the past four Ohio elections. Democrats also suggest they are bringing Obama-leaning independents to polls. But since Mr. Romney has led among independents in nine of the 13 Ohio polls conducted since the first debate, the likelihood is that the GOP is doing as good a job in turning out their independent supporters as Democrats are in turning out theirs.
Desperate Democrats are now hanging their hopes on a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll showing the president with a five-point Ohio lead. But that survey gives Democrats a +8 advantage in turnout, the same advantage Democrats had in 2008. That assumption is, to put it gently, absurd.
In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side’s closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America’s 45th president. Let’s call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more. . . . Read More
It’s interesting to note that the 279 (he said or more) number Rove predicts is what our current projection is, first posted here on October 25. That’s not yet a final projection for us, but our current best guess.
Rove predicting Romney win today. In 2008, he said Obama would win 338-200 (actual 365-173) lat.ms/QWzF13— Philip Klein (@philipaklein) November 1, 2012
Here are Karl Rove and Joe Trippi taking their latest look at the Electoral College Map for the 2012 Election. Both agree the election is still very tight between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. The Rove map has Obama up 280-182, with 76 electoral votes still in the “tossup” category.
Here is video of Bill O’Reilly talking with Karl Rove last night about President Obama’s “radical” view of taxation. O’Reilly argued it is a radical departure from the historic view of the nation, and went so far as to say that Obama’s direction “could destroy the entire economic infrastructure of the country.”
“He’s a zealot, and I don’t say that in a bad way – I’m not saying that as a pejorative. He believes in his heart it is his mission on earth to take from those who have – you and me – and give to those who don’t. It’s a Robin Hood to the ‘nth degree. That’s who he is. . . By doing that, which a lot of people feel is noble, he could destroy – and I mean destroy – the entire economic infrastructure of the country, which is not built on Social Justice. It’s built on competition.”
That pretty much sums it up. It’s exactly what Barack Obama meant in 2008 when he pledged to “transform America.”
Here is video of Karl Rove and Joe Trippi giving their latest look at the Electoral Map. Their map shows 8 states with movement toward Mitt Romney over the last 30 days, with three states getting better for Obama. Joe Trippi believes Obama’s Immigration ploy is working to build his lead with Hispanics, especially in the states of Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. But Karl Rove says it’s too early to make that assumption.
Here is video of political strategists Karl Rove and Joe Trippi breaking down the current state of the Electoral Vote Map based on current polling. Rove’s new map shows movement in Romney’s direction over the past two weeks, but still puts Obama way ahead of Romney if the Election were held today, based on the most recent polls in each state. The problem is that some states have very little recent polling to go on, and Rove said the map would show a strengthening Romney in the weeks ahead as new data comes out. Both Trippi and Rove agreed that the three states of Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are essential to Romney, and he must win Ohio as well. If he can pull that off, he will need just one other state when added to the states he is likely to win. But Rove believes states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado will be in play for Romney as well, opening up other combinations to get beyond the 270 votes needed for victory.
Trippi said Obama has “huge advantages” both electorally and in terms of organization, and thinks the election will come down to who wins Virginia.
Here is Karl Rove last night telling Bill O’Reilly that things appear to be moving Mitt Romney’s way right now:
“I think North Carolina is gone just like Indiana is gone. I think Ohio and Florida are leaning today towards Romney. I think places like Iowa and Colorado are in danger of floating into the Republican column. And states like Nevada and Pennsylvania are moving from lean Democrat into toss-up category. And on June 5th, mark my words, we will have more poll data than we got today that is going to show that Wisconsin’s a battleground state.”
Rove said it will be awhile before the Electoral Map actually shows these trends, as polling data in some states has been slim up to this point. But soon a lot more polling data will come out, and the Electoral Map will begin to show the weakened position of Barack Obama.
I think Rove is correct. We still show North Carolina as a “tossup,” and Colorado in Obama’s column, along with Nevada and Pennsylvania. As more polling comes out, the Electoral Map will begin to catch up to what appears to be the strengthening Romney Campaign.
Here is video of a new “American Crossroads” SuperPAC Ad called “Cool,” that shows how “cool” Barack Obama is, but asks the question: “After four years of a celebrity President, is your life any better?”
Here is video of Karl Rove yesterday saying he thinks Obama Senior Adviser David Axelrod acted on “Fox News Sunday” like “a guy that was scared to death his candidate was gonna go down to defeat.”
Rove made the remarks at around the 5:00 mark of the video.