UPDATED 2/28/12, 7:45 AM ET: Two other polls done yesterday have been released, and they give Mitt Romney a one and two-point edge over Rick Santorum. That has moved the 3-Day Polling Average in Michigan to a 0.8 point lead for Romney – in other words, it’s a virtual tie.
To make it more complicated, Public Policy Polling reports that Romney holds a strong edge in absentee votes already cast, while Santorum is polling strong among those who are planning to actually cast their vote today. An additional unknown factor is how many “Independents” and Democrats will turn out and vote for Santorum as a way of stopping Mitt Romney. Some on the Left are advocating that, believing Santorum to be the weaker opponent to Barack Obama. Santorum has been making a big pitch to Democrats, seeking to take advantage of that possibility.
The big question is whether the turnout for Santorum today will be large enough to overcome Romney’s big advantage with absentee voters. Santorum seems to have the momentum. If he pulls it out, it will be a devastating blow to Romney on what he has called his own home turf. It’s going to be close.
Public Policy Polling is out with their final poll on the GOP Presidential race in Michigan, and it shows closing momentum for Rick Santorum:
PPP: PPP’s final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.
It’s always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum’s direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn’t already voted, Santorum’s advantage was 41-31. . . . Read More
We added the polling for Monday that had Santorum leading 39%-34%, and it results in a tie right now between Santorum and Romney in our 3-Day Average of Polls, 36.3%-36.3%. That’s about as close as you can get! We’ll see if there are any other polls that are issued tomorrow. You would have to say the momentum is with Santorum.