A new EPIC-MRA Poll out of Michigan shows President Barack Obama with only a 4-point lead over Mitt Romney there. Obama won Michigan by 16-points in the 2008 Election.

For Obama to be below 50% in such a strongly blue state has to be troublesome to his campaign. If we head into the Fall and you see the Obama Campaign having to spend lots of time and resources in states like Wisconsin and Michigan – which he won by double-digits in 2008 – you will know he is in big trouble.

We’re leaving Michigan in Obama’s column for now, but will look to see if other polls in the days ahead show a tight race there. Public Policy Polling and NBC in February showed Obama with a big lead there, but their polls often are optimistic for Obama anyway (especially NBC).

New Poll Shows Obama Leading Mitt Romney by only 4-points in Michigan – 4/9/12

UPDATED 2/28/12, 7:45 AM ET: Two other polls done yesterday have been released, and they give Mitt Romney a one and two-point edge over Rick Santorum. That has moved the 3-Day Polling Average in Michigan to a 0.8 point lead for Romney – in other words, it’s a virtual tie.

To make it more complicated, Public Policy Polling reports that Romney holds a strong edge in absentee votes already cast, while Santorum is polling strong among those who are planning to actually cast their vote today. An additional unknown factor is how many “Independents” and Democrats will turn out and vote for Santorum as a way of stopping Mitt Romney. Some on the Left are advocating that, believing Santorum to be the weaker opponent to Barack Obama. Santorum has been making a big pitch to Democrats, seeking to take advantage of that possibility.

The big question is whether the turnout for Santorum today will be large enough to overcome Romney’s big advantage with absentee voters. Santorum seems to have the momentum. If he pulls it out, it will be a devastating blow to Romney on what he has called his own home turf. It’s going to be close.

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Public Policy Polling is out with their final poll on the GOP Presidential race in Michigan, and it shows closing momentum for Rick Santorum:

PPP: PPP’s final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.

It’s always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum’s direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn’t already voted, Santorum’s advantage was 41-31. . . . Read More

We added the polling for Monday that had Santorum leading 39%-34%, and it results in a tie right now between Santorum and Romney in our 3-Day Average of Polls, 36.3%-36.3%. That’s about as close as you can get! We’ll see if there are any other polls that are issued tomorrow. You would have to say the momentum is with Santorum.

Late Poll Shows Rick Santorum Surging in Michigan; Leads Romney 39%-34% in Polling on Eve of Crucial Primary UPDATED: Other Late Polls Give Romney Slight Edge; A Virtual Tie as Voting Begins – 2/28/12

Whoa!

Just when the polling trend in Michigan appeared to be favoring Mitt Romney, here comes a new poll by Mitchell Research / Rosetta Stone that turns that upside down. Contradicting new polls by Public Policy Polling and We Ask America, Mitchell finds Rick Santorum now leading Mitt Romney in Michigan by a 37%-35% margin. Their poll just three days earlier found Romney with a three-point lead over Santorum, 36%-33%. So, they show the trend in Santorum’s favor, while other recent polls show a trend in Romney’s direction.

This has to be a big worry for the Romney Campaign. They have billed Michigan as home turf for Romney. With Romney sometimes underperforming his poll numbers in states, while Santorum often outperforming his polling, it is set up for potential shocking upset by Santorum in Michigan. If Santorum can pull that off, he would have an enormous head of steam heading into the Super Tuesday contests on March 6.

Whoa! New Poll Contradicts Michigan Trend in Romney’s Favor; Shows Santorum Leading Romney – 2/27/12

UPDATE: New Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll shows Santorum leading Romney in Michigan by two points.

Polls from two polling organizations in both Arizona and Michigan show Gov. Mitt Romney leading in those two states just one day ahead of the GOP Presidential Primaries there.

We Ask America has Romney leading over Rick Santorum 37%-33% in Michigan, and by a much wider 43%-27% in Airzona.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Romney leading Santorum by a smaller 39%-37% in Michigan, but a larger 43%-26% margin in Arizona. The trend is in Romney’s favor, as Santorum was leading in polls there just a week ago. But the margin for Romney is still small enough to be worrisome for him. Romney has tended to underperform his poll numbers in some states, while Santorum has tended to outperform his poll numbers. If that happens in Michigan, a big upset on Romney’s home turf is possible. It appears Romney is fairly secure in Arizona, with a strong trend of double-digit leads there in most polls. Only American Research Group has found the margin close there (Romney up 39%-35%) in recent days.

An interesting note on the polls in Arizona and Michigan. Newt Gingrich seems to be getting a bump in Arizona, while Ron Paul has moved up in Michigan. However, both candidates are still far back of both Romney and Santorum.

Our 3-Day Average of Polls in Arizona now has Romney up by a 12.5 point margin over Rick Santorum, and by a smaller 3.7 point margin in Michigan.

New Polls Show Mitt Romney Cruising in Arizona; Leading in Tight Michigan Race with Santorum – 2/27/12

Is the GOP Presidential race in Michigan turning Mitt Romney’s way?

Two new polls out today, done after the most recent debate, would seem to indicate it is. Mitchell Research / Rosetta Stone is out with a poll showing Romney now leading in Michigan 36%-33% over Rick Santorum. But Rasmussen also has a new poll, done February 23, giving Romney a 6-point lead, 40%-34% over Santorum. Just three days earlier, February 20 – prior to the GOP Debate in Arizona – Rasmussen found Santorum leading by 4-points, 38%-34%. That’s a 10-point swing in Romney’s favor since the Wednesday night debate.

While things seem to be going in Romney’s direction, it is important to note that Rick Santorum has outperformed his polling numbers in several contests this year, while Romney has sometimes underperformed. That could certainly happen in Michigan on Tuesday. We’ll see if upcoming polls confirm the trend toward Romney in Michigan.

Check all the latest polling averages for upcoming contests and results from past contests here.

Is Michigan Turning Romney’s Way? New Polling Shows Romney with a Significant Bounce after GOP Debate – 2/24/12

Just eight days ahead of the Michigan GOP Presidential Primary, two news polls show the race tightening there significantly. Rick Santorum had been leading by double-digits in some polls just a week ago, but new polling shows Mitt Romney closing in on Santorum in a state Romney considers home territory.

A new We Ask America Poll has the race now tied at 29%, while a new Public Policy Polling survey has Santorum up by 4 points, 37%-33%.

Our 7-Day Average of Michigan Polls has Santorum leading Romney now by 3.6 points.

New Poll Shows Mitt Romney Surging into a Tie with Rick Santorum in Michigan – 2/20/12

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Arizona, Michigan Primary Polling Averages

Updated: 2/29/12, 7:55 AM ET

Candidate

Primary Date

Arizona

2/28/12

Michigan

2/28/12

                  Winner

Romney Wins

+20.7

Romney Wins

 +3.2

Santorum

26.6

37.9

Romney

47.3

41.1

Gingrich

16.2

6.5

Paul

8.4

11.6

Note: Final vote results are shown for both Arizona and Michigan.  Click on the state names above for polling data.

 

UPDATE: Mitt Romney won the Arizona and Michigan GOP Presidential Primaries last night. He won Arizona in very strong fashion, winning by more than 20 points. He also outperformed his poll numbers in Michigan, winning by just over 3 points. It was a big night for Romney. Had he lost in Michigan, we would be talking about how much trouble his campaign was in. Now, it’s on to Super Tuesday, March 6. Washington will hold Caucuses on Saturday, March 3.

For results in primaries and caucuses already held, and for polling averages on other future GOP contests – including Super Tuesday – go here.

Polling Averages/Results for Arizona, Michigan GOP Presidential Primaries

Another new poll in Michigan puts Sen. Rick Santorum in the lead over Mitt Romney. According to a new survey by Mitchell Research, Santorum has a 9-point lead over Romney, 34%-25%. Earlier this month, Romney led Santorum 31%-15% in a poll by the same organization.

The Romney Campaign has to be in panic mode about the numbers coming out of Michigan. Romney is billing Michigan as home territory for him in his own ads. If he loses to Santorum in Michigan on February 28, it will be an earthquake in the GOP race.

The other big point to note in this poll is that Newt Gingrich gets only 5% support, down from 16% in Michigan just two weeks ago. His campaign is losing steam in a hurry, and you have to wonder if he actually stays in the race through Super Tuesday, March 6, particularly if he does very poorly on February 28 in Michigan and Arizona. Ironically, Romney, who beat Gingrich down with negative ads, has to hope he will stay in the race. Otherwise, Santorum will get a big boost in the Super Tuesday races against Romney.

Another Poll Shows Rick Santorum Leading on Mitt Romney’s Michigan Home Turf; Gingrich Support Sinks – 2/15/12

Two new polls show Rick Santorum now leading Mitt Romney in the state of Michigan, once thought to be sure-bet territory for Romney.

Public Policy Polling has a new survey showing Santorum leading by 15-points over Romney, 38%-23%, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul far behind.

American Research Group has a new poll showing Santorum with a 33%-27% lead over Romney.

The two new polls show just how strong a surge Santorum is enjoying around the country. Michigan is where Romney was born, and where his father served as Governor. A loss there by Romney could not be viewed as anything but devastating.

Two New Polls Show Rick Santorum Leading Mitt Romney in Michigan – 2/13/12

New Poll – 2012 GOP Nomination – Michigan

7/21-24/11

PPP

Romney

24

Bachmann

18

Perry

14

Cain

7

Gingrich

7

Paul

6

McCotter

5

Pawlenty

4

 

New Poll – 2012 GOP Nomination – Vermont

7/28-31/11

PPP

Romney

29

Bachmann

21

Perry

11

Cain

10

Gingrich

9

Paul

8

Pawlenty

2

Huntsman

1

 

Gov. Mitt Romney is leading the 2012 GOP Presidential Field in new polls out of Michigan and Vermont. Romney is running strong in many of the states Republicans typically don’t do well in during general elections. That won’t mean much in a state like Vermont should he win the nomination, because Vermont is going to go for Obama in 2012. But all of these states do have GOP Delegates and can help Romney toward the 2012 GOP Nomination.

Michigan is a typically strong Democrat state, but because of the terrible economic conditions there, it could actually be in play for Republicans in 2012. Romney’s dad – George Romney – was Governor of Michigan from 1963-1969. Mitt Romney has some roots in Michigan, and has polled fairly well there against Obama so far, actually leading Obama by 4-points in a poll there in July.

Gov. Mitt Romney Leads 2012 GOP Field in Polls from Michigan and Vermont

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