Polling Average Says Rick Santorum Headed for Runaway Victory in Today’s GOP Louisiana Primary – 3/24/12

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Louisiana GOP Primary Polling Average

Updated 3/24/12, 9:30 AM ET

Candidate

Primary Date

Louisiana

3/24/12

                  Leader

Santorum +11.8

Santorum

38.0

Romney

26.2

Gingrich

19.0

Paul

5.6

Click state name to see polling data.

 

GOP Delegate Totals

 

Other Primary/Caucus Results & Averages

 

Republicans are voting in Louisiana today, and Sen. Rick Santorum appears headed for a runaway victory there in the GOP Presidential Primary. Santorum leads our average of polls from Louisiana by double-digits.

New Polls Show Mitt Romney Cruising in Arizona; Leading in Tight Michigan Race with Santorum – 2/27/12

UPDATE: New Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll shows Santorum leading Romney in Michigan by two points.

Polls from two polling organizations in both Arizona and Michigan show Gov. Mitt Romney leading in those two states just one day ahead of the GOP Presidential Primaries there.

We Ask America has Romney leading over Rick Santorum 37%-33% in Michigan, and by a much wider 43%-27% in Airzona.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Romney leading Santorum by a smaller 39%-37% in Michigan, but a larger 43%-26% margin in Arizona. The trend is in Romney’s favor, as Santorum was leading in polls there just a week ago. But the margin for Romney is still small enough to be worrisome for him. Romney has tended to underperform his poll numbers in some states, while Santorum has tended to outperform his poll numbers. If that happens in Michigan, a big upset on Romney’s home turf is possible. It appears Romney is fairly secure in Arizona, with a strong trend of double-digit leads there in most polls. Only American Research Group has found the margin close there (Romney up 39%-35%) in recent days.

An interesting note on the polls in Arizona and Michigan. Newt Gingrich seems to be getting a bump in Arizona, while Ron Paul has moved up in Michigan. However, both candidates are still far back of both Romney and Santorum.

Our 3-Day Average of Polls in Arizona now has Romney up by a 12.5 point margin over Rick Santorum, and by a smaller 3.7 point margin in Michigan.

Polling Averages/Results for Arizona, Michigan GOP Presidential Primaries

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Arizona, Michigan Primary Polling Averages

Updated: 2/29/12, 7:55 AM ET

Candidate

Primary Date

Arizona

2/28/12

Michigan

2/28/12

                  Winner

Romney Wins

+20.7

Romney Wins

 +3.2

Santorum

26.6

37.9

Romney

47.3

41.1

Gingrich

16.2

6.5

Paul

8.4

11.6

Note: Final vote results are shown for both Arizona and Michigan.  Click on the state names above for polling data.

 

UPDATE: Mitt Romney won the Arizona and Michigan GOP Presidential Primaries last night. He won Arizona in very strong fashion, winning by more than 20 points. He also outperformed his poll numbers in Michigan, winning by just over 3 points. It was a big night for Romney. Had he lost in Michigan, we would be talking about how much trouble his campaign was in. Now, it’s on to Super Tuesday, March 6. Washington will hold Caucuses on Saturday, March 3.

For results in primaries and caucuses already held, and for polling averages on other future GOP contests – including Super Tuesday – go here.

Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri Polling Averages; Santorum Set Up for Golden Opportunity to Prove He’s the Conservative to Defeat Romney and Obama

UPDATED 2/8/12, 9:30 AM ET: Here are the winning totals for Rick Santorum:

Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri Results

Updated: 2/8/12, 8:45 AM ET

Candidate

 

Primary Date

Colorado

Caucuses

2/7/12

Minnesota

Caucuses

2/7/12

Missouri

Primary

2/7/12

Winner

Santorum Wins +5.3

Santorum Wins +17.6

Santorum Wins +29.9

Romney

34.9

16.9

25.3

Gingrich

12.8

10.7

*

Santorum

40.2

44.8

55.2

Paul

11.8

27.2

12.2

Note:  Click on the state names above for final vote results.

 

With Mitt Romney winning the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday, February 4, the GOP Presidential Nomination race moves on to Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri this week. These two caucuses and the Missouri Primary take place on Tuesday, February 7, and Rick Santorum has a golden opportunity to prove he is the conservative who can defeat Mitt Romney head-to-head. Above are the polling averages in the three states, but there is just very little polling data to go on. Newt Gingrich chose to skip the Missouri Primary, which is a non-binding primary. The delegates for Missouri will be chosen at a Caucus in March. But the Missouri Primary could prove to be far more valuable to Rick Santorum than any amount of delegates. With Gingrich not on the ballot, it is Santorum’s chance to show what he can do one-on-one against Mitt Romney. If he wins, he could get a great deal of buzz and momentum going forward.

Santorum also has a great shot at winning in Minnesota. With Gingrich running back in the pack in all three states, tomorrow could be a very dark day for the Gingrich Campaign. If Santorum wins one or two contests tomorrow and Gingrich finishes third or fourth in all three, the calls for Gingrich to get out of the race will grow strong.

South Carolina, Florida GOP Presidential Primary Polling Averages & Results

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This table will remain at the top of the main page through the end of January.

South Carolina, Florida Primary Polling Averages & Results

Updated: 1/31/12, 6:15 AM ET

Candidate

Primary Date

South Carolina

1/21/12

Florida

1/31/2012

                  LEADER

Gingrich Wins +12.6

Romney +13.6

Romney

27.8

42.9

Gingrich

40.4

29.3

Santorum

17.0

12.7

Paul

13.0

9.9

Perry

Withdrew

Withdrew

Huntsman

Withdrew

Withdrew

Note: Final Vote Percentages are listed for South Carolina, and a 3-Day Average for Florida is listed. Click on the state names above for polling data and more averages. Results from Iowa and New Hampshire. 

 

The GOP Presidential Nomination race now moves on to Florida (January 31) following Newt Gingrich’s shocking victory in South Carolina. Here is the polling average for Florida, which shapes up to be a pivotal contest in the GOP Presidential race. We’ll keep it updated as new polls come out.

New Polls Show Newt Gingrich Gaining Significant Ground on Mitt Romney in New Hampshire – 11/29/11

Two new polls in New Hampshire show the race tightening there, with Mitt Romney still leading in the must-win state for his campaign. But Newt Gingrich has moved up to a strong second, and Jon Huntsman has actually reached double-digits in a new Rasmussen Poll.

Rasmussen has Romney up by 10-points over Gingrich 34%-24%, with Ron Paul at 14% and Huntsman at 11%. An Insider Advantage Poll has Gingrich within 4 points at 31%-27%.

Romney still has a 15.8 point lead in New Hampshire in our 21-day polling average, but Gingrich is making up ground fast.

Mitt Romney Holds Strong Lead in New Hampshire in Two New Polls – 11/22/11

Two new polls out of New Hampshire show Mitt Romney continuing to hold a sizeable lead in the first-in-the-nation primary state.

The New Hampshire Primary will be held January 10, 2012, and Romney leads by 27-points in a new Suffolk Poll over Newt Gingrich. In a new survey by The Polling Company, Romney’s lead is 17-points. That’s in keeping with the 21-day average of New Hampshire Polls which shows Romney leading Gingrich by 17.2 points.

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