Polling Averages for Arizona, Michigan GOP Presidential Primaries

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Arizona, Michigan Primary Polling Averages

Updated: 2/22/12, 8:30 AM ET

Candidate

Primary Date

Arizona

2/28/12

Michigan

2/28/12

                  LEADER

Romney +8.2

Santorum +0.7

Santorum

30.0

33.7

Romney

38.2

33.0

Gingrich

16.0

8.5

Paul

8.2

10.7

Note: A 7-Day Average of Polls is used for both Arizona and Michigan.  Click on the state names above for polling data.

 

The next two big GOP Primary Contests will be held on February 28 in Arizona and Michigan. Above is a table showing the current average of polls for the GOP Presidential Candidates in those two contests. We’ll keep this post at the top of the main page from now until the primaries are held, and keep it updated as new polls come in.

For results in primaries and caucuses already held, and for polling averages on other future GOP contests – including Super Tuesday – go here.

New Poll Shows Mitt Romney Surging into a Tie with Rick Santorum in Michigan – 2/20/12

Just eight days ahead of the Michigan GOP Presidential Primary, two news polls show the race tightening there significantly. Rick Santorum had been leading by double-digits in some polls just a week ago, but new polling shows Mitt Romney closing in on Santorum in a state Romney considers home territory.

A new We Ask America Poll has the race now tied at 29%, while a new Public Policy Polling survey has Santorum up by 4 points, 37%-33%.

Our 7-Day Average of Michigan Polls has Santorum leading Romney now by 3.6 points.

Another Poll Shows Rick Santorum Leading on Mitt Romney’s Michigan Home Turf; Gingrich Support Sinks – 2/15/12

Another new poll in Michigan puts Sen. Rick Santorum in the lead over Mitt Romney. According to a new survey by Mitchell Research, Santorum has a 9-point lead over Romney, 34%-25%. Earlier this month, Romney led Santorum 31%-15% in a poll by the same organization.

The Romney Campaign has to be in panic mode about the numbers coming out of Michigan. Romney is billing Michigan as home territory for him in his own ads. If he loses to Santorum in Michigan on February 28, it will be an earthquake in the GOP race.

The other big point to note in this poll is that Newt Gingrich gets only 5% support, down from 16% in Michigan just two weeks ago. His campaign is losing steam in a hurry, and you have to wonder if he actually stays in the race through Super Tuesday, March 6, particularly if he does very poorly on February 28 in Michigan and Arizona. Ironically, Romney, who beat Gingrich down with negative ads, has to hope he will stay in the race. Otherwise, Santorum will get a big boost in the Super Tuesday races against Romney.

Rick Santorum Now Leading Mitt Romney in Multiple National Polls – 2/14/12

Sen. Rick Santorum leads Mitt Romney nationally in a new CBS News / New York Times poll on the GOP Presidential Nomination race. Santorum leads Romney 30%-27%, with Ron Paul well back at 12%, and Newt Gingrich slumping to 10%.

This becomes the third national poll in the last four days to show Santorum leading Mitt Romney. His momentum from winning three states last week shows no sign of slowing down. We’ll see if he can sustain it between now and the Arizona, Michigan Primaries on February 28.

Santorum now leads Romney 30.2%-28.6% in our 7-Day Average of National Polls.

Two New Polls Show Rick Santorum Leading Mitt Romney in Michigan – 2/13/12

Two new polls show Rick Santorum now leading Mitt Romney in the state of Michigan, once thought to be sure-bet territory for Romney.

Public Policy Polling has a new survey showing Santorum leading by 15-points over Romney, 38%-23%, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul far behind.

American Research Group has a new poll showing Santorum with a 33%-27% lead over Romney.

The two new polls show just how strong a surge Santorum is enjoying around the country. Michigan is where Romney was born, and where his father served as Governor. A loss there by Romney could not be viewed as anything but devastating.

PPP Reports Michigan Poll in Process May Show Rick Santorum with Double-Digit Lead over Mitt Romney

Public Policy Polling is in the process of doing a poll in Michigan, and they tweeted last night that it looks like Rick Santorum is going to have a double-digit lead on Mitt Romney there. Romney was born in Michigan, and his father, George Romney, was Governor there. It is considered home turf for Romney. If Santorum beats him there, it will be a devastating blow to Romney.

However, notice that PPP also tweeted a note of caution that Santorum’s momentum may just be a blip on the screen as a result of his three-state victory last week:

New National Poll Shows Rick Santorum Surging to a 15 Point Lead over Mitt Romney – 2/11/12

A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) national poll shows Rick Santorum surging out to a 15-point lead over Mitt Romney in the wake of his three-state sweep earlier this week. Santorum now leads Romney 38%-23%, with Newt Gingrich far back at 17%, and Ron Paul at 13%.

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING: Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP’s newest national poll. He’s at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Part of the reason for Santorum’s surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney’s favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That’s a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28). . . . Read More

Actually, the news gets even better for Santorum as you see in the tweets below:

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