A new shock poll out of Pennsylvania finds Gov. Mitt Romney closing fast on Barack Obama, now trailing in the very blue state by only 4-points, 50%-46%:
BUSINESS WEEK: Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, continuing his post-debate surge, closed to within four points of President Barack Obama among likely voters in Pennsylvania, narrowing a 12-point gap less than a month ago.
The Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters conducted Oct. 12-14 gave the president a 50 percent to 46 percent advantage, compared with Obama’s 54 percent to 42 percent lead in the Sept. 18-24 survey before the two men held their first nationally televised debate on Oct. 3 in Denver. They debate again tonight.
Romney is “coming on strong in the Keystone State,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac polling institute in Hamden, Connecticut. . . . Read More
Polls conducted by Clarus Research before and after the first Presidential Debate show Gov. Mitt Romney getting a 5-point bounce from his dominating performance over President Barack Obama:
NATIONAL JOURNAL: A new poll shows a slight change in the presidential race immediately following Wednesday night’s debate in Denver, with a 4-point lead for President Obama the day before the debate becoming a 1-point deficit the day after his uninspiring performance.
On Tuesday, the Washington, D.C.-based Clarus Research Group surveyed 590 likely voters and found Obama leading Mitt Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent. On Thursday, Clarus found, in an identical number of interviews, that Romney had inched ahead by 1 point, 47 percent to 46 percent.
Obama’s support slipped by 3 points and Romney’s ticked up by 2 points. Because the margin of error for each survey is plus-or-minus 4 percentage points, the change between the two polls is not statistically significant. Additionally, conducting a poll only in one day can introduce additional sources of error. . . Read More
The result Clarus got is at least partially confirmed by the Rasmussen Tracking Poll, which now has Romney ahead by two-points, 49%-47%, a four-point swing since the debate. Of course, the key question is whether Mitt Romney can sustain this momentum through two more Presidential Debates and all the twists and turns of the final 30-days of the Campaign. It’s impossible to know, but one thing’s for sure – Romney helped himself a lot with his showing in the first debate.
Here is audio of Rush Limbaugh today telling conservatives “the campaign to depress and dispirit you is underway. . . full bore.”
He’s right. The liberal media is doing everything they can right now to make us believe the election is over. It’s too early to tell if Obama’s “bounce” is what it appears to be and whether it will last. The National Tracking Polls are really all you are hearing about for the most part. We need to wait a week to tell where things settle out following the two conventions. Then you also have CNN out with a poll showing Obama up by six, but in the internals of the poll, it shows Romney leading Obama among Independents 54%-40%! Yet no one is talking about that. To get a six point lead for Obama they had to have a huge Democrat oversample with Romney leading by double-digits among Independents.
A new ABC News/Washington Post National Poll shows Gov. Mitt Romney with a one-point lead over President Barack Obama, 47%-46%:
WASHINGTON POST: The Republican National Convention opens this week with President Obama and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney running evenly, with voters more focused on Obama’s handling of the nation’s flagging economy than on some issues dominating the political debate in recent weeks.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows Romney at 47 percent among registered voters and Obama at 46 percent — barely changed from the deadlocked contest in early July. . . . Read More
Over at Hot Air, Ed Morrissey has dug into the details of the poll and found that it is a very bad result for Barack Obama. Despite oversampling Democrats by +9, Romney has a one-point lead. Further, the sample only includes 22% Republicans – a total fantasy for Democrats to think that the November electorate will only be composed of 22% Republicans. There’s much more – check out Ed’s analysis.
It will be interesting to see if what Dick Morris is saying turns out to be correct. He has posted an article that says much of the current polling is skewed in favor of Barack Obama in an attempt to create a sense of momentum for him. Morris says he has seen polls of likely voters in key swing states and it paints a very different picture:
DICK MORRIS.COM: The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and of inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after forty years of polling) show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney. Of the thirteen states studied, he improved or Obama slipped in nine states while the reverse happened in only four. To read the media, one would think that Romney had a terrible month. In fact, the exact reverse is true.
Romney is currently leading in every state McCain carried plus: Indiana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, and Colorado. If he carries these states, he’ll have 228 electoral votes of the 270 he needs to win.
To win the election, Romney would then have to carry Florida where he trails by two points, and either Virginia (behind by two) or Ohio where he’s down by only one. . . . Read More
There is no question that much of the current polling is using a polling sample that is heavily skewed toward the Democrats, sometimes polling anywhere from five to eleven percent more Democrats than Republicans. If what Morris is saying is correct, we will see the polls begin to reflect the truth as we get into October and head toward November. I have to believe that in the end, most of these pollsters will want to be able to say they were close to accurate even if they are devoted to Barack Obama.
A new KTSP/Survey USA Poll in Minnesota shows the race for President there much closer than anyone would have imagined. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by six-points, 46%-40%. Minnesota is a state Obama won by 10-points over John McCain in 2008, and is considered one of the deepest of the “Blue” Democratic states. Minnesota has 10 Electoral Votes.
The latest Rasmussen Tracking Poll on the Presidential Election shows Gov. Mitt Romney moving out to a 4-point lead over President Barack Obama. Romney now leads the three-day tracking average 48%-44%:
RASMUSSEN: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney picking up 48% of the vote, while President Obama attracts 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
This is the first time either candidate has been ahead by more than two points since President Obama held a three-point edge on May 21. As with all such changes, it remains to be seen whether these new numbers reflect a lasting change in the race or are merely statistical noise. . . . Read More
Here is a video report by NBC’s Chuck Todd on new NBC/Marist Polls that show Mitt Romney and Barack Obama virtually tied in three key battleground states: Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. The report mentions the polls briefly and also reports that Obama called Romney yesterday to congratulate him on securing the GOP Presidential Nomination.
I’ll work on getting all these state polls updated this morning as well as the Electoral Vote Projection Map. It’s been a very busy week and I’m behind! This is good news for Romney because these polls are “Registered Voter” polls, which typically tilt toward the Democrat. For him to be even with Obama in the “Registered Voter” polls means it’s actually probably better than that. We’ll see if that trend continues in other polls in the weeks ahead.
The two major tracking polls today both show Mitt Romney moving out to a lead over President Obama. Rasmussen puts Romney up by five-points at 49%-44%, while Gallup has Romney leading 47%-44%. Whether this is the beginning of a trend toward Romney or a blip on the screen is yet to be seen.
Perhaps the most significant number is that Obama is only at 44% in both of the polls. As we near the November 6 Election, that’s a key number to watch. Typically, “Undecided” voters break heavily toward the challenger in Presidential Elections. Obama needs to be at 50% or above if he is going to be re-elected. He can’t count on undecided voters putting him over the top if he is well below 50%.
POLITICO: . . . A gender gap still exists, but it appears to be narrowing. Obama leads among women by 7 percentage points, while Romney has the same lead among male voters. But among women younger than 45 , Obama leads 57 percent to 39 percent. Yet Romney leads among women older than 45, 50 percent to 45 percent. The Republican also leads among white women, 57 percent to 38 percent. . . . Read More
Mitt Romney has opened up a 10-point lead among “Independent” voters in a new Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll. The poll gives Romney a 48%-47% edge over Obama among “Likely Voters,” but a 48%-38% lead among so-called “Independent” Voters. Among those who say they are “extremely likely” to vote, Romney leads by six-points. In the last poll conducted by Politico back in February, Obama had a 9-point lead.
CBS NEWS: A new Politico-George Washington University poll shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by one point, 48 to 47 percent.
In that poll, independent voters prefered Romney by a ten-point margin. . . . Read More
The tracking poll certainly moves up and down, but this makes five straight days Romney has either been tied with Obama or in the lead. Coupled with the latest Fox News Poll on the race showing Romney up by 2-points, the trend is certainly good right now for Romney.
It will be interesting to see what other media polls in the next week show on the race. People are just now settling in to Romney as the GOP Nominee-to-be. So far, that seems to be moving him up.