A new KTSP/Survey USA Poll in Minnesota shows the race for President there much closer than anyone would have imagined. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by six-points, 46%-40%. Minnesota is a state Obama won by 10-points over John McCain in 2008, and is considered one of the deepest of the “Blue” Democratic states. Minnesota has 10 Electoral Votes.
The latest Rasmussen Tracking Poll on the Presidential Election shows Gov. Mitt Romney moving out to a 4-point lead over President Barack Obama. Romney now leads the three-day tracking average 48%-44%:
RASMUSSEN: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney picking up 48% of the vote, while President Obama attracts 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
This is the first time either candidate has been ahead by more than two points since President Obama held a three-point edge on May 21. As with all such changes, it remains to be seen whether these new numbers reflect a lasting change in the race or are merely statistical noise. . . . Read More
Here is a video report by NBC’s Chuck Todd on new NBC/Marist Polls that show Mitt Romney and Barack Obama virtually tied in three key battleground states: Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. The report mentions the polls briefly and also reports that Obama called Romney yesterday to congratulate him on securing the GOP Presidential Nomination.
I’ll work on getting all these state polls updated this morning as well as the Electoral Vote Projection Map. It’s been a very busy week and I’m behind! This is good news for Romney because these polls are “Registered Voter” polls, which typically tilt toward the Democrat. For him to be even with Obama in the “Registered Voter” polls means it’s actually probably better than that. We’ll see if that trend continues in other polls in the weeks ahead.
The two major tracking polls today both show Mitt Romney moving out to a lead over President Obama. Rasmussen puts Romney up by five-points at 49%-44%, while Gallup has Romney leading 47%-44%. Whether this is the beginning of a trend toward Romney or a blip on the screen is yet to be seen.
Perhaps the most significant number is that Obama is only at 44% in both of the polls. As we near the November 6 Election, that’s a key number to watch. Typically, “Undecided” voters break heavily toward the challenger in Presidential Elections. Obama needs to be at 50% or above if he is going to be re-elected. He can’t count on undecided voters putting him over the top if he is well below 50%.
POLITICO: . . . A gender gap still exists, but it appears to be narrowing. Obama leads among women by 7 percentage points, while Romney has the same lead among male voters. But among women younger than 45 , Obama leads 57 percent to 39 percent. Yet Romney leads among women older than 45, 50 percent to 45 percent. The Republican also leads among white women, 57 percent to 38 percent. . . . Read More
Mitt Romney has opened up a 10-point lead among “Independent” voters in a new Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll. The poll gives Romney a 48%-47% edge over Obama among “Likely Voters,” but a 48%-38% lead among so-called “Independent” Voters. Among those who say they are “extremely likely” to vote, Romney leads by six-points. In the last poll conducted by Politico back in February, Obama had a 9-point lead.
CBS NEWS: A new Politico-George Washington University poll shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by one point, 48 to 47 percent.
In that poll, independent voters prefered Romney by a ten-point margin. . . . Read More
The tracking poll certainly moves up and down, but this makes five straight days Romney has either been tied with Obama or in the lead. Coupled with the latest Fox News Poll on the race showing Romney up by 2-points, the trend is certainly good right now for Romney.
It will be interesting to see what other media polls in the next week show on the race. People are just now settling in to Romney as the GOP Nominee-to-be. So far, that seems to be moving him up.
Pennsylvania will hold its GOP Primary on April 24. Santorum has publicly staked a great deal on winning there to kickoff what he is calling the “second half” of the GOP Nomination race. A Romney victory there would be a real embarrassment for Santorum, and some are speculating he will end his Presidential bid before April 24 if he believes he may lose to Romney in his home state.
This is just one poll. At this point, I would say Santorum would still defeat Romney in Pennsylvania. But we’ll have to see if the trend in other polls keeps moving Romney’s way.
A 7-Day Polling Average is shown. Click state name to see
Here are the polling averages heading into today’s Illinois GOP Presidential Primary.
Mitt Romney leads by double-digits, and looks poised to win. But, he looked ready to win in Mississippi last week. Santorum has frequently outperformed his poll numbers. Illinois will be a tougher place to do so. We’ll see how it turns out.
Two new polls in Illinois give Mitt Romney a lead over Rick Santorum in the GOP Primary to be held Tuesday, March 20.
We Ask America puts Romney up by 6-points, 37%-31% over Santorum. Rasmussen has Romney up by a larger margin of 9-points, 41%-32%. Our Average of Polls for Illinois has Romney leading Santorum by 6.4 points.
But is has to be remembered how wrong the polls were in Mississippi this past week, where Rick Santorum won despite trailing by at least five points in all the polls. Santorum has consistently outperformed his poll numbers throughout this campaign.
7-Day Average of Polls is used for both Alabama and Mississippi. Click
on the state names above for polling data.
The 7-Day Polling Averages for the Alabama and Mississippi Primaries, to be held today, March 13, 2012, show a very close race shaping up. You can click on the state names above to see the actual polling data. If Romney wins in either of these Southern States, it will fuel his already growing momentum. If Gingrich wins one or both states, it will give him legitimacy to stay in the race. Santorum has to be hoping he can pull out wins in both states to force Gingrich out of the race, giving him a chance at Romney one-on-one the rest of the way.
Ohio and Tennessee a 3-Day Average of Polls is shown. In Oklahoma and Georgia
a 7-Day Average of Polls is Shown. In Virginia an Average of all Polls is
Shown. Click on the state names above for polling data.
*In Virginia, Rick
Santorum and Newt Gingrich failed to qualify for the ballot.
Here are polling averages for some of the key “Super Tuesday” contests to be held March 6, 2012. We’ll keep these updated as we head into the voting tomorrow.
A We Ask America Poll just released makes it a virtual 3-way tie in Tennessee: Santorum 30%, Romney 29%, Gingrich 29%. A Romney victory in Tennessee would be huge for him, showing he can win in the South. But a victory for Newt Gingrich to go along with a win in Georgia would enable him to stay in the race and claim he can be a viable alternative to Romney. Right now, it’s just too close to call, but Gingrich certainly appears to have the biggest surge going on in Tennessee.
A recent Public Policy Polling survey gives Romney the momentum, and a 5-point lead over Rick Santorum, 37%-32%. But a Survey USA Poll just out gives Romney a larger 14-point advantage over Santorum, 38%-24%.