The two major tracking polls today both show Mitt Romney moving out to a lead over President Obama. Rasmussen puts Romney up by five-points at 49%-44%, while Gallup has Romney leading 47%-44%. Whether this is the beginning of a trend toward Romney or a blip on the screen is yet to be seen.

Perhaps the most significant number is that Obama is only at 44% in both of the polls. As we near the November 6 Election, that’s a key number to watch. Typically, “Undecided” voters break heavily toward the challenger in Presidential Elections. Obama needs to be at 50% or above if he is going to be re-elected. He can’t count on undecided voters putting him over the top if he is well below 50%.

Two Major Tracking Polls Show Mitt Romney Moving Ahead of President Obama; Both Put Obama at Just 44% Support – 5/8/12

More from that new Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll. Mitt Romney leads among women older than 45 years old, and has a 57%-39% lead among white women. Obama leads among women younger than 45. Which age group do you think is more likely to go vote? A disturbing question for the Obama Campaign.

POLITICO: . . . A gender gap still exists, but it appears to be narrowing. Obama leads among women by 7 percentage points, while Romney has the same lead among male voters. But among women younger than 45 , Obama leads 57 percent to 39 percent. Yet Romney leads among women older than 45, 50 percent to 45 percent. The Republican also leads among white women, 57 percent to 38 percent. . . . Read More

Poll: Gender Gap? Romney Leads among Women Older than 45; Leads Obama 57%-39% with White Women Voters – 5/7/12

Mitt Romney has opened up a 10-point lead among “Independent” voters in a new Politico/George Washington University Battleground Poll. The poll gives Romney a 48%-47% edge over Obama among “Likely Voters,” but a 48%-38% lead among so-called “Independent” Voters. Among those who say they are “extremely likely” to vote, Romney leads by six-points. In the last poll conducted by Politico back in February, Obama had a 9-point lead.

CBS NEWS: A new Politico-George Washington University poll shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama by one point, 48 to 47 percent.

In that poll, independent voters prefered Romney by a ten-point margin. . . . Read More

New Poll Shows Mitt Romney Leading President Obama by 10-Points among “Independent” Voters

The latest Rasmussen Tracking Poll on the 2012 Presidential Election has Gov. Mitt Romney moving out to a 5-point lead over President Barack Obama.

The tracking poll certainly moves up and down, but this makes five straight days Romney has either been tied with Obama or in the lead. Coupled with the latest Fox News Poll on the race showing Romney up by 2-points, the trend is certainly good right now for Romney.

It will be interesting to see what other media polls in the next week show on the race. People are just now settling in to Romney as the GOP Nominee-to-be. So far, that seems to be moving him up.

New Tracking Polls Shows Mitt Romney Moving Out to a Five-Point Lead over Barack Obama – 4/14/12

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania shows Gov. Mitt Romney taking a 5-point lead over Sen. Rick Santorum in Santorum’s home state. According to the new poll, Romney leads Santorum 42%-37%. Santorum still leads our 21-day polling average by one-point, 36%-35%.

Pennsylvania will hold its GOP Primary on April 24. Santorum has publicly staked a great deal on winning there to kickoff what he is calling the “second half” of the GOP Nomination race. A Romney victory there would be a real embarrassment for Santorum, and some are speculating he will end his Presidential bid before April 24 if he believes he may lose to Romney in his home state.

This is just one poll. At this point, I would say Santorum would still defeat Romney in Pennsylvania. But we’ll have to see if the trend in other polls keeps moving Romney’s way.

New Poll Shows Mitt Romney Leading Santorum in Pennsylvania

Illinois GOP Primary Polling Average Updated 3/20/12, 11:00 AM ET
Candidate Primary Date	Illinois 3/20/12
Leader	*Romney +11.0*
Santorum	30.8
Romney	41.8
Gingrich	13.3
Paul	8.3
A 7-Day Polling Average is shown. Click state name to see polling data.

Here are the polling averages heading into today’s Illinois GOP Presidential Primary.

Mitt Romney leads by double-digits, and looks poised to win. But, he looked ready to win in Mississippi last week. Santorum has frequently outperformed his poll numbers. Illinois will be a tougher place to do so. We’ll see how it turns out.

Polling Average for Illinois GOP Primary Puts Romney Up by Double-Digits – 3/20/12

Two new polls in Illinois give Mitt Romney a lead over Rick Santorum in the GOP Primary to be held Tuesday, March 20.

We Ask America puts Romney up by 6-points, 37%-31% over Santorum. Rasmussen has Romney up by a larger margin of 9-points, 41%-32%. Our Average of Polls for Illinois has Romney leading Santorum by 6.4 points.

But is has to be remembered how wrong the polls were in Mississippi this past week, where Rick Santorum won despite trailing by at least five points in all the polls. Santorum has consistently outperformed his poll numbers throughout this campaign.

Two New Polls Show Mitt Romney Leading Rick Santorum Ahead of Tuesday’s Illinois GOP Primary – 3/16/12

NOTE: Scroll Down for Newest Posts

Alabama, Mississippi Primary Polling Averages *Updated: 3/13/12, 3:50 PM ET*
Candidate Primary Date	Alabama 3/13/12	Mississippi 3/13/12
LEADER	*Gingrich +0.8*	*Romney +2.6*
Santorum	25.4	25.3
Romney	28.8	33.3
Gingrich	29.6	30.7
Paul	6.5	7.0
Note: A 7-Day Average of Polls is used for both Alabama and Mississippi. Click on the state names above for polling data.

The 7-Day Polling Averages for the Alabama and Mississippi Primaries, to be held today, March 13, 2012, show a very close race shaping up. You can click on the state names above to see the actual polling data. If Romney wins in either of these Southern States, it will fuel his already growing momentum. If Gingrich wins one or both states, it will give him legitimacy to stay in the race. Santorum has to be hoping he can pull out wins in both states to force Gingrich out of the race, giving him a chance at Romney one-on-one the rest of the way.

Polling Averages for Alabama, Mississippi GOP Presidential Primaries

NOTE: Scroll Down for Newest Posts

Key “Super Tuesday” Polling Averages *Updated: 3/6/12, 8:30 AM ET*
Candidate Primary Date	Ohio 3/6/12	Tennessee 3/6/12	Oklahoma 3/6/12	Georgia 3/6/12	Virginia 3/6/12
Leader	*Romney* *+1.9*	*Santorum* *+2.6*	*Santorum* *+7.0*	*Gingrich +17.4*	*Romney* *+39.2*
Santorum	32.1	32.3	32.5	18.0	*
Romney	34.0	29.7	25.5	24.3	61.5
Gingrich	16.6	24.7	21.0	41.7	*
Paul	11.5	9.3	11.0	7.6	22.3
Note: In Ohio and Tennessee a 3-Day Average of Polls is shown. In Oklahoma and Georgia a 7-Day Average of Polls is Shown. In Virginia an Average of all Polls is Shown. Click on the state names above for polling data. *In Virginia, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich failed to qualify for the ballot.

Here are polling averages for some of the key “Super Tuesday” contests to be held March 6, 2012. We’ll keep these updated as we head into the voting tomorrow.

Check Polling Averages and Results for all 2012 GOP Presidential Nomination contests.

Polling Averages for Key GOP “Super Tuesday” States

Two new polls show both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich surging in Tennessee, just one day before the Tennessee GOP Presidential Primary.

Rick Santorum still leads – but barely. He had enjoyed a 10-20 point lead just a week ago. He now leads in our 3-Day Average of Polls by 2.6 points.

A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey gives Santorum a five-point lead over Mitt Romney, 34%-29%, with Newt Gingrich surging up to 27%, within striking distance.

A We Ask America Poll just released makes it a virtual 3-way tie in Tennessee: Santorum 30%, Romney 29%, Gingrich 29%. A Romney victory in Tennessee would be huge for him, showing he can win in the South. But a victory for Newt Gingrich to go along with a win in Georgia would enable him to stay in the race and claim he can be a viable alternative to Romney. Right now, it’s just too close to call, but Gingrich certainly appears to have the biggest surge going on in Tennessee.

Check out all the latest poll averages for the “Super Tuesday” States, March 6.

New Polls Show Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney Surging in Tennessee Just Ahead of “Super Tuesday”; Virtual 3-Way Tie

Heading into today’s Washington GOP Caucuses, two polls give Gov. Mitt Romney the edge.

A recent Public Policy Polling survey gives Romney the momentum, and a 5-point lead over Rick Santorum, 37%-32%. But a Survey USA Poll just out gives Romney a larger 14-point advantage over Santorum, 38%-24%.

The outcome today in Washington should give the winner some positive buzz heading into “Super Tuesday,” March 6, when 10 States will hold Primaries and Caucuses. A total of 43 delegates are up for grabs in Washington.

Recent Polling Gives Mitt Romney the Advantage Going into Today’s Washington GOP Caucuses – 3/3/12

UPDATED 2/28/12, 7:45 AM ET: Two other polls done yesterday have been released, and they give Mitt Romney a one and two-point edge over Rick Santorum. That has moved the 3-Day Polling Average in Michigan to a 0.8 point lead for Romney – in other words, it’s a virtual tie.

To make it more complicated, Public Policy Polling reports that Romney holds a strong edge in absentee votes already cast, while Santorum is polling strong among those who are planning to actually cast their vote today. An additional unknown factor is how many “Independents” and Democrats will turn out and vote for Santorum as a way of stopping Mitt Romney. Some on the Left are advocating that, believing Santorum to be the weaker opponent to Barack Obama. Santorum has been making a big pitch to Democrats, seeking to take advantage of that possibility.

The big question is whether the turnout for Santorum today will be large enough to overcome Romney’s big advantage with absentee voters. Santorum seems to have the momentum. If he pulls it out, it will be a devastating blow to Romney on what he has called his own home turf. It’s going to be close.

____________________________

Public Policy Polling is out with their final poll on the GOP Presidential race in Michigan, and it shows closing momentum for Rick Santorum:

PPP: PPP’s final poll in Michigan finds Rick Santorum holding on to the smallest of leads with 38% to 37% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Ron Paul, and 9% for Newt Gingrich.

It’s always good to be cautious with one night poll numbers, but momentum seems to be swinging in Santorum’s direction. Romney led with those interviewed on Sunday, but Santorum has a 39-34 advantage with folks polled on Monday. The best sign that things have gone back toward Santorum might be that with those polled today who hadn’t already voted, Santorum’s advantage was 41-31. . . . Read More

We added the polling for Monday that had Santorum leading 39%-34%, and it results in a tie right now between Santorum and Romney in our 3-Day Average of Polls, 36.3%-36.3%. That’s about as close as you can get! We’ll see if there are any other polls that are issued tomorrow. You would have to say the momentum is with Santorum.

Late Poll Shows Rick Santorum Surging in Michigan; Leads Romney 39%-34% in Polling on Eve of Crucial Primary UPDATED: Other Late Polls Give Romney Slight Edge; A Virtual Tie as Voting Begins – 2/28/12

Whoa!

Just when the polling trend in Michigan appeared to be favoring Mitt Romney, here comes a new poll by Mitchell Research / Rosetta Stone that turns that upside down. Contradicting new polls by Public Policy Polling and We Ask America, Mitchell finds Rick Santorum now leading Mitt Romney in Michigan by a 37%-35% margin. Their poll just three days earlier found Romney with a three-point lead over Santorum, 36%-33%. So, they show the trend in Santorum’s favor, while other recent polls show a trend in Romney’s direction.

This has to be a big worry for the Romney Campaign. They have billed Michigan as home turf for Romney. With Romney sometimes underperforming his poll numbers in states, while Santorum often outperforming his polling, it is set up for potential shocking upset by Santorum in Michigan. If Santorum can pull that off, he would have an enormous head of steam heading into the Super Tuesday contests on March 6.

Whoa! New Poll Contradicts Michigan Trend in Romney’s Favor; Shows Santorum Leading Romney – 2/27/12

UPDATE: New Mitchell/Rosetta Stone Poll shows Santorum leading Romney in Michigan by two points.

Polls from two polling organizations in both Arizona and Michigan show Gov. Mitt Romney leading in those two states just one day ahead of the GOP Presidential Primaries there.

We Ask America has Romney leading over Rick Santorum 37%-33% in Michigan, and by a much wider 43%-27% in Airzona.

Public Policy Polling (PPP) has Romney leading Santorum by a smaller 39%-37% in Michigan, but a larger 43%-26% margin in Arizona. The trend is in Romney’s favor, as Santorum was leading in polls there just a week ago. But the margin for Romney is still small enough to be worrisome for him. Romney has tended to underperform his poll numbers in some states, while Santorum has tended to outperform his poll numbers. If that happens in Michigan, a big upset on Romney’s home turf is possible. It appears Romney is fairly secure in Arizona, with a strong trend of double-digit leads there in most polls. Only American Research Group has found the margin close there (Romney up 39%-35%) in recent days.

An interesting note on the polls in Arizona and Michigan. Newt Gingrich seems to be getting a bump in Arizona, while Ron Paul has moved up in Michigan. However, both candidates are still far back of both Romney and Santorum.

Our 3-Day Average of Polls in Arizona now has Romney up by a 12.5 point margin over Rick Santorum, and by a smaller 3.7 point margin in Michigan.

New Polls Show Mitt Romney Cruising in Arizona; Leading in Tight Michigan Race with Santorum – 2/27/12

Is the GOP Presidential race in Michigan turning Mitt Romney’s way?

Two new polls out today, done after the most recent debate, would seem to indicate it is. Mitchell Research / Rosetta Stone is out with a poll showing Romney now leading in Michigan 36%-33% over Rick Santorum. But Rasmussen also has a new poll, done February 23, giving Romney a 6-point lead, 40%-34% over Santorum. Just three days earlier, February 20 – prior to the GOP Debate in Arizona – Rasmussen found Santorum leading by 4-points, 38%-34%. That’s a 10-point swing in Romney’s favor since the Wednesday night debate.

While things seem to be going in Romney’s direction, it is important to note that Rick Santorum has outperformed his polling numbers in several contests this year, while Romney has sometimes underperformed. That could certainly happen in Michigan on Tuesday. We’ll see if upcoming polls confirm the trend toward Romney in Michigan.

Check all the latest polling averages for upcoming contests and results from past contests here.

Is Michigan Turning Romney’s Way? New Polling Shows Romney with a Significant Bounce after GOP Debate – 2/24/12